Friar Faithful

Intentional Blog on Balls

2008-04-05T17:22:00.000-07:00

In case anyone finds their way to this blog, I wanted to let you know that I'm now writing at Intentional Blog on Balls.

2006-07-27T12:07:00.000-07:00

Well, that last series appears to have been helpful.

jbox asked, "Can we say Peavy sucks?"

2006-07-22T01:44:00.000-07:00

(Stats used are prior to his July 21 start)

Based on his strikeout rate, unintentional walk rate, and the types of batted balls he's allowed, Peavy should be doing well. Basically, he's allowed 3 more singles, 7 more doubles, 3 more triples and 3 more home runs than you'd expect given his batted balls allowed and an average fielding team in a neutral park. Now, the three home runs could be explained away by the fact that the park has been kind to home run hitters this year. The extra hits that stayed in the park are strange given that the Padres turn batted balls into outs better than any team in the Majors other than the Tigers.

Combine that with the fact that he's grouped those hits, walks and outs in a most unfortunate way and you're looking at an ERA not in line with how Jake has pitched.

There's a few ways one could disagree with this.

1) You believe that a line drive allowed by one pitcher is more/less likely to be an out/hit than one allowed by another pitcher. Read: it's a pitcher's skill that determines if a ball lined to center is caught or not.

2) You believe that batted ball data is not tracked well enough to be used in any real analysis. Debatable.

3) You believe that component ERA means less in determining how well a pitcher pitched than actual ERA. Read: Pitcher A and Pitcher B both allow three singles and a double, but the fact that Pitcher B allowed them Double, Single, Single, Single instead of Single, Single, Single, Double means he pitched better than Pitcher A.

4) You really believe Peavy sucks and there's no convincing you otherwise.

NL West Division Race (Playoff Odds)

2006-07-14T12:55:00.000-07:00

The above graph is based on BP's Postseason Odds Report.

Khalil's Plate Discipline

2006-07-13T13:55:00.000-07:00

It was mentioned by Geoff Young that Greene's plate discipline has returned to his 2004 levels. While his BB/PA rate is now .001 lower than it was in 2004, his plate discipline has actually increased significantly. Greene put up a .096 BB/PA in '04 compared to a .095 this year, but his unintentional walk rate has actually climbed from .078 to .095. Greene may have had a .349 OBP in 2004, but without the intentional passes he got for batting infront of the pitcher it would have been .337.

Fire Bruce Bochy (2)

2006-06-30T11:30:00.000-07:00

Yesterday's game went 14 innings. Bruce Bochy is good for a couple of blunders in a 9 inning game.

Before one pitch was thrown, you could see that Bochy was already working to avoid the sweep. Having managed bad teams for years and thus trying to avoid the sweep with some regularity, perhaps Bochy merely views all sweeps as negative. If so, someone should let him know it's only bad when the Padres get swept. Bruce decided to start Eric Young. Eric Young is either the worst player or second worst player on the team depending upon which stats you're looking at. Not only did Young start, but he was batting second. Now, batting order isn't the most important thing in the world, but there is still some effect and as a general rule you just don't put your worst hitters at the top of the lneup. Basic stuff. Eric Young came up to bat 5 times during the game and was not pinch hit for once. He should have been. Both his bat and glove are liabilities.

In the top of the 9th, Sweeney replaced Linebrink. I don't so much have an issue with this move as I have an issue with Sweeney being the low leverage guy. That position should really belong to Adkins and/or Cassidy. Both have put up negative WXRL this year.

In the bottom of the inning, Eric Young was allowed to hit for himself. That's no good. Johnson should have been hitting there.

In the tenth, Bochy partially redeemed himself going to his closer in a tie game and finally getting EY out of left field.

In the eleventh, Bochy blew it again. Hoffman had only thrown eleven pitches. He's thrown more than double that in an inning without needing to be removed. Hoffman should have still been on the mound. Instead, Bochy goes to the 'pen. Not only does he go to the 'pen, he goes to the 'pen for one of his least effective relievers, Jon Adkins. Perhaps Embree is unavailable, you might have thought, but that proved false when after Adkins nearly gave the game away in came Embree.

In the 14th, Bochy made another pitching change. He was forced to bring in Cassidy. That's the sort of thing that happens when you pull your closer too soon and you use your better relievers in low leverage situations.

The solution?

Fire Bruce Bochy.

Good news, too

Paul DePodesta joins Padres front office. I'd just like to take this time to say, "Yay!"

Top 100 San Diego Padres: #81 Scott Linebrink

2006-06-27T12:19:00.000-07:00

The following is a guest article by Geoff Young of Ducksnorts, the San Diego Padres blog.

SCOTT LINEBRINK | RP | 2003- | CAREER STATS

One of the shrewdest moves Padres GM Kevin Towers has made during his decade at the helm was plucking Linebrink off the waiver wire in late May 2003. The Astros had removed Linebrink from their roster to accommodate Geoff Blum, who was coming off the disabled list.

Linebrink promptly became one of the premier relievers in baseball, compiling an ERA lower than all but two other pitchers (the Yankees' Mariano Rivera and the Angels' Francisco Rodriguez) during his first three years in San Diego. Featuring a mid-90s fastball and nasty splitter, he has complemented closer Trevor Hoffman well as the Padres' top setup man.

Despite some injury issues in his minor-league career, Linebrink has proven to be quite durable, working in 73 games in both 2004 and 2005. When it looked as though Hoffman might bolt to Cleveland following the 2005 season, Linebrink was next in line to assume the role of closer. Although he has not performed in that capacity as a professional, there is little question that he would succeed if given the opportunity.

Linebrink is a better pitcher than most big-league closers today. The Padres are fortunate to have him waiting in the wings should anything happen to Hoffman.

Top 100 San Diego Padres: #82 Dave Freisleben

2006-06-23T13:36:00.000-07:00

The following is a guest article by Howard Lynch.

DAVID JAMES FREISLEBEN | SP | 1974-1978 | CAREER
STATS

Dave Freisleben was drafted by the Padres out of a Pasadena, TX, high school in the 5th round of the 1971 amateur draft (96th overall), after being a 2-time Texas American Legion MVP. I can't find a comprehensive tally of his minor league career ... but here are some major events along the way:

- Threw 4 shutouts for the Northwest League's Tri-City Padres in 1971 ... http://www.canadianbaseballnews.com/archives/bluhis.html ... a Northwest League (NWL) all-time pitching record according to: http://vancouvercanadians.blogspot.com/2005/08/northwest-league-nwl-all-time-pitching.html

- Was 17-9 for the Alexandria Aces, then the Padres' Double-A farm team, in 1972 ... leading a staff that also included Dan Spillner (16-7) and Randy Jones (3-5) ... http://www.thetowntalk.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060523/SPORTS/605230323/1006

- For the 1973 AAA Hawaii Islanders, Dave Freisleben led both the strikeout (206) and ERA (2.82) totals ... http://linkmeister.com/islanders/islhist.htm

- while in the PCL, Rob Neyer reports that Dave's repertoire was ... Pitch Selection: 1. Fastball 2. Curve 3. Change 4. Slider (occasional); Source: The Sporting News (6/23/1973, Fred Borsch); this describes his repertoire while pitching in the Pacific Coast League, and might not accurately describe his pitches afterward, in the majors ... http://www.robneyer.com/book_04_extras2.html.

Dave made his Major League debut with the Padres, at age 22, on April 26, 1974 vs PHI, winning 6-2 and pitching a complete game (http://www.retrosheet.org/boxesetc/B04260SDN1974.htm) (note: the game was caught by Fred Kendall ... http://members.tripod.com/bb_catchers/catchers/ushcatch.htm). In his second start, Dave also threw a complete game, beating the Expos 5-1 and in the process, getting his first big league hit, a double off Ernie McAnally (http://www.retrosheet.org/boxesetc/B05010SDN1974.htm). In his third start, Dave beat the Phillies again, this time besting HOF'er Steve (Lefty) Carlton (http://www.retrosheet.org/boxesetc/B05060PHI1974.htm). A month of relative-struggles saw his ERA get over 4.00 until he blanked the Cardinals on 6-hits on June 7th (http://www.retrosheet.org/boxesetc/B05060PHI1974.htm).

The most amazing thing I did not know in Padres' history is what Dave Freisleben did in August of 1974 ... did you know that a Padres' pitcher tossed 13 *SHUTOUT* innings in 1 game? Check out this box score from August 4, 1974: http://www.retrosheet.org/boxesetc/B08042SDN1974.htm ... OUCH! I'll bet that's the best no-decision start in Padres' history. This was against a Big-Red-Machine team that went on to win 98 games! I'm in awe! Dave followed that outing with a complete game victory over the Pirates ... after a rough outing vs Cubs, Dave then toss'd a 3-hit shutout over the Expos ... then 8-innings vs the Pirates ... and then, he did the free-baseball-thing *AGAIN*, tossing 11-innings of 1-run ball at the Cubs (before getting pounded in the 12th) ... so, for August, 1974, Dave had 6 starts and pitch'd 55.2 innings (averaging *OVER* 9 innings per start)!!! Who knew? You can see all these details for yourself at http://www.retrosheet.org/boxesetc/Kfreid1010011974.htm ... Thank-you, Retrosheet! In retrospect, doesn't this seem like a prime example of why the fuss over pitch-counts has evolved, especially for young pitchers?

Dave's weakness shows, even during this amazing stretch ... it was his control. In that 3-hit shutout of the Expos he issued 7 walks. For the season, 112 walks (in 211.2 IP, with 130 Ks), which was 3rd most in the league (http://users.adelphia.net/~lwfoster/hbppage/recaps/hrec74nl.htm, wow, Steve Carlton had a rough season in 1974, well, except that he toss'd 291 IP, http://www.baseball-reference.com/c/carltst01.shtml).

1974 was Dave's best season, finishing it with a 3.66 ERA ... good for an ERA+ of 97, which led the team (http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/SDP/1974.shtml), and he was named Padres Rookie Pitcher of the Year. If you ignore those walk totals, then that 1974 staff looks like it has a *VERY* bright future ... with 125 starts coming from 2 24-year-olds (Randy Jones and Bill Greif) and 2 22-year-olds (Dave Freisleben and Dan Spillner). Alas, only Randy Jones would elevate his performance, and we'll see him much higher on the Padres Top 100 list.

Mid-May of 1975 saw Dave toss back-to-back complete-game near-shutouts (both vs. Cubs, some things never change :-)) ... but after that, his ERA bounced between 3.80 and 4.20 ... finally finishing at 4.28 (ERA+ = 82). He finished the season with 7 out of his final 8 appearances in relief, after August of 1975 not being nearly as remarkable (35.2 IP, 26 ERs = 6.55) ... see http://www.retrosheet.org/boxesetc/Kfreid1010021975.htm for all the details.

1976 didn't start for Dave until May 24th, but it was still his high-water-mark season for Wins, finishing with a 10-13 record and an ERA of 3.51 (for ERA+ = 93). Despite the late start, it was his typical fast start, getting complete game shutouts in his first 2 starts (vs Dodgers & Giants, for which he was named National League Pitcher of the Week), and tossing a third shutout vs Mets on June 8th, and going 10-innings vs Phillies in his next start! Another iron-man streak there ... 6 starts with 53 IP! ... but then not another complete game until September 18th, with a 4-1 victory over JR Richard and the Astros.

The start of 1977 was ugly, with an ERA of 6.49 at the end of April and an 2-month absense from the mound (a stint on the DL, perhaps?). After peaking at 7.91 on July 3rd, when he failed to get out of the 2nd innings vs Reds, Dave worked his ERA under 4.50 with 3 more 9-inning outings ... but the season ended on a very rough note, giving up 19 runs in just over 16 IP over his final 4 starts. His final line = 7-9 in 23 starts, 138.2 IP, ERA = 4.61 (ERA+ = 77) ... not a disaster, but the beginning of the end.

Dave's final start for the Padres came on April 29, 1978 ... http://www.retrosheet.org/boxesetc/B04290PHI1978.htm ... in which he gave up 7 runs on 10 hits (+ 4 walks) and didn't get out of the 5th inning. After 6 relief appearances, the Padres traded him on June 22, 1978 to the Cleveland Indians for Bill Laxton (who had pitched for the Padres in 1974, but never again made it the majors, http://www.baseball-reference.com/l/laxtobi01.shtml). Dave got 10 starts for the Indians, but they weren't pretty as he finish his time with them at 1-4 in 44.3 IP with a 7.11 ERA (ERA+ = 53). After this, Dave was subject to these transactions ...

November 3, 1978: Traded by the Cleveland Indians to the Toronto Blue Jays for a player to be named later. The Toronto Blue Jays sent Sheldon Mallory (March 27, 1979) to the Cleveland Indians to complete the trade.

October 22, 1979: Released by the Toronto Blue Jays.

Before 1980 Season: Signed as a Free Agent with the California Angels.

April 1, 1980: Released by the California Angels.

A few moments of note in this career ... he gave up 1 Home Run to Hank Aaron ... http://www.sportingnews.com/archives/aaron/homerbreakdown.html ... and also caught one ... https://www.lelands.com/bid.aspx?lot=646&auctionid=603 :-) ... Aug 29, 1977 was a memorable day for Dave ... http://espn.go.com/sportscentury/moments/9908.html, he gave up Lou Brock's 892nd SB (tieing him with Ty Cobb) AND 893rd ... with Dave Roberts behind the plate obviously doing the best he could to get into a record book :-)

Here's reference to a few Sporting News articles that feature Dave ... http://www.baseballlibrary.com/baseballlibrary/sabr/tbi/F/Freisleben_Dave.tbi.stm ... these might provide more insight into his health issues.

You can buy a baseball card of his that's got some value, and a reminder that our Padres almost moved to Washington, DC before the 1974 season ... http://tinyurl.com/e6az6 :-) 1974 was the same year that Ted Giannoulas had a fitting for a chicken suit in one of the greatest career moves in history but that was for radio station KGB and the Chicken's fame was still unrealized ... http://www.addictsports.com/baseball/archive/index.php/t-28507.html :-).

You were a stud, Dave ... well done! I wish'd you'd been better taken care of.

PS. Here's some good news on what he's up to now ... he's a golf pro in Texas! Really! He "turned pro in 2001"! Check this out ... http://www.heartlandplayers.com/player_profiles.htm. I found this site while looking for confirmation that he really did pitch 13 Shutout innings against the Cincinnati Reds in 1974 ... this was proof enough for me (not that I ever doubted Rerosheet). It lists this info about his post-MLB life ...

Married to Melinda, with two children Lindsey and David JR, hobbies include Golf and coaching son David's baseball and basketball teams. Police officer since 1986. Pitching Coach for two years in Texas Ranger's organization.

Futher interesting web pages ...

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/F/dave-freisleben.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/f/freisda01.shtml

http://www.baseball-almanac.com/players/player.php?p=freisda01

http://baseballhistory.vzz.net/Teams/SDP/1974.htm

Burroughs DFA'ed

2006-06-22T18:28:00.000-07:00

The Devil Rays have designated Sean Burroughs for assignment.

It would seem that he'll soon be available for the taking. I doubt the organization shares this sentiment, but I'd like to see the Padres re-acquire him, if only to send him to AAA and wait for him to hit.

He's still just 25, is an above-average defender at third base, and has hit .280 with a .340 OBA through 440 major league games. Considering he is still the age of many major league rookies, I wouldn't be surprised if he rebounded to have a solid career as a regular. It is fairly rare for a player to play in that many games before age 25 and not become a good player. And he's far better than Vinny Castilla.

Fire Bruce Bochy (1)

2006-06-15T19:39:00.000-07:00

In Wednesday's game, Bochy pulled Thompson in the 7th for a pinch hitter in low leverage situation. Thompson had thrown only 79 pitches and allowed only two runs. It was a bad decision. The reliever that replaced the effective Thompson promptly gave up the lead.

In today's game, Bochy removed Sikorski after only 20 pitches (15 were for strikes). Sikorski had struck out two of the batters he faced. After allowing a groundball, Bochy pulled him. Poor decision. The reliever that replaced him promptly allowed the go ahead run to score.

It should be obvious that a manager should allow a pitcher that has been effective during the game to pitch as long as he can safely do so. You never know if a guy is going to be on his game and it's stupid to pull a guy who has already shown you he's on his. Bochy tried to lose two games, managed to lose one. In two days. That's unacceptable.

Fire Bruce Bochy!

What Should the Padres Do?

2006-06-12T14:54:00.000-07:00

The Padres have played nearly 40% of the season and are currently on pace to win 80 games. It will likely take 93-94 wins to repeat as Division Champions and 90 wins to make the playoffs as the Wild Card. I rather doubt it's possible to improve the team by 14 wins or even 10. Trading Vinny Castilla straight up for Alex Rodriguez at this point in the season should be worth less than 5.5 wins. The Padres would basically have to make two trades of roughly that caliber to be the favorite for the Wild Card. I don't see it happening. I think the Padres need to look at setting themselves up for next year at the expense of this year and they should start doing so now. This is in no way motivated by losing a series to the Marlins. That sort of thing happens to every team. It's not like we just lost a series to the Cubs.

It's still possible that the Padres begin to play much better and the Dodgers start to play much worse and the Padres experience great luck and the Dodgers have a series of unfortunate events in their future, but how likely is that?

Top 100 San Diego Padres: #83 Willie McCovey

2006-05-29T19:41:00.000-07:00

The following is a guest article by Rich Campbell of San Diego Spotlight, a San Diego Padres blog.

WILLIE LEE MCCOVEY | 1B | 1974-1976 | CAREER
STATS

Back in the early 70’s, I made a deal with my grandmother. If my favorite Padre hit a home run while we were at the game, she would give me a hundred dollar bill. We shook on it and everything. Overhearing this, my little brother requested the same deal. My grandmother cracked up, then counter-offered a single dollar.

See, my favorite Padre was Enzo Hernandez. My little brother’s favorite?

Willie McCovey.

Even in the fading twilight of his career, Willie McCovey meant something to San Diego. He was the first genuine star to come here, and to many fans he was the first real indication that the Padres played in the major leagues.

Willie didn’t do much by his own standards in his three years as a Friar. His highest average was .253, and he hit only 52 homers in the three years. But to people who hadn’t been paying attention to Nate Colbert and Clay Kirby, McCovey’s presence meant that we really were “big league”. To my lil’ brother, Willie McCovey was better than a ride to the community swimming pool at Gillespie Field.

Willie had swagger, Willie had muscle, and when Willie hit the ball it went a long way. McCovey wasn’t quite the great player he had been in San Francisco, but it didn’t matter. It wasn’t like the team was actually going to win. But McCovey commanded respect.

Having Willie here affected the way the Padres were treated by the rest of the league, and especially by the east coast media. It meant that they would actually cover our games. Kirby and Colbert should have warranted that, but they didn’t.

Because we had Willie McCovey, Randy Jones and Dave Winfield got noticed more quickly.

Oh, there were other things going on in the year McCovey became a Padre. Ray Kroc was the new owner and he was behind the trade to acquire a name-ballplayer. The ballclub had already been packed to move to Washington D.C. But in McCovey’s first year the Padres drew a million fans for the first time, despite a 60-102 record.

Willie shouldn’t get all the credit for that. Indeed, the majority of it should go to Ray Kroc. Promising rookies Randy Jones and Dave Winfield didn’t hurt, either. Nor did established veterans Matty Alou and Bobby Tolan. The Padres looked like a major league team, on paper anyway.

But there was no doubt who the big name in the mix was. Although Jones and Winfield by 1976 had eclipsed McCovey’s star enough that he was traded to the Oakland A’s, Willie McCovey was the first big name acquisition that let this town know we had a major league team.

By the way, I never did collect any money from my grandmother. My brother ended up with about ten bucks over the next few years. Guess he got the best of that deal.

Top 100 San Diego Padres: #84 Fred Norman

2006-05-28T20:06:00.000-07:00

The following is a guest article by Dex of Gas Lamp Ball, a San Diego Padres blog.

FREDIE HUBERT NORMAN | SP | 1971-1973 | CAREER
STATS

Fred Norman was really not a good pitcher for a solid 7 or 8 years to start his career. He may not have been horrible, but nobody would blame you for trying to make that argument… except for the fact that it’d be a little bit prickish to do.

He was not good (and arguably he was a little horrible) for those years and then he came to the Padres in 1971. The 1971 Padres, of course were terrible. Terribly horrible. The 1971 Padres were one of five Padres teams that managed to lose 100 or more games. Terribly, horribly horrendous team. Somebody get me a thesaurus. Abominable. Execrable. Actually, it wasn’t that bad. Their Pythagorean win/loss was 64-97. So they sucked and they were unlucky.

Norman wasn’t even a shining star on that ’71 team. A 3-11 record kept him out of Cy Young contention, but a respectable (and career best) 3.32 ERA endeared him to management and they kept him around. Maybe out of pity.

Also, he was kinda short. A little guy.

At this point, you should probably be asking yourself why Li’l Fred Norman even gets a whiff of the Top 100. After 1971, Norman would only pitch one more full year with the Padres. And the ’72 Padres weren’t a heckuva lot better than the ’71 Pads. I’ll tell you why. Something crazy happened to Fred Norman.

Me, personally? I think he lost it. Something clicked in his little head and he decided that he was seriously effing sick of these bad teams screwing up his shot at the Hall of Fame. He was sick of his friends laughing at him and his dog peeing on his shoes. He was sick of being short. Something made him decide that he was going to start getting wins no matter what.

Norman started the ’72 season off pitching a complete game against the Dodgers, giving up one run, and still the Padres managed to lose the game. That only made his rage grow.

On May 2, he picked up his first win. Another complete game. Another game with only one run surrendered. At this point, maybe he realized that he couldn’t leave anything to chance because he went on that season to pitch ten complete games with six shutouts in the mix. That’s a Padres record that only Randy Jones has since matched.

Score one for shorty.

You heard of the Big Red Machine? Big Red Pansies to Fred Norman. Three of his complete game wins came against the Big Red Machine and two of those were shut outs. In one game against them, he struck out 15, a Padres record at the time. That’s the Big Red Machine that would go on to the World Series that year. If you wanted to see a Big Red Machine when the Reds were in town in ‘71, you had to know a pretty good surgeon because the only big red machine on the diamond in those days was the one in Fred Norman’s chest.

And after all was said and done, he still only went 9-11 for the Padres.

And then they traded him away… To the Reds who were probably sick of this little guy schooling them so much on the mound.

But for a few brief moments in time, Fred Norman wasn’t just any little guy. He was our little guy. And when he was pitching, it wasn’t his height that carried the team. It was that big heart of his.

The Littlest Padre with the Biggest Heart.

Top 100 San Diego Padres: #85 Enzo Hernandez

2006-05-28T18:16:00.000-07:00

ENZO OCTAVIO HERNANDEZ | SS | 1971-1977 | CAREER STATS

Last week I wrote about a mediocrity named Bob Barton. Today I find myself trying to summon something positive to say about Enzo Hernandez. And on Tuesday, I shall wax poetic on the sub-par baseball skills of Rudi Stein of the Bad News Bears.

The presence in our Top 100 of players of Enzo’s ilk makes me wonder if perhaps this list should have been limited to the top 50 Padres. Go to the Baseball-Reference.com page of Enzo Octavio Hernandez, and you’ll find this quip from page sponsor Stephen Rodrick: “A tip of the cap [to] one of baseball’s least productive hitters in history.”

Stephen Rodrick is correct. At the plate, Hernandez was not merely bad. He was historically bad. In his rookie season with the Padres, he drove in just twelve runs despite accumulating 549 at-bats. He barely missed being the first regular in history to commit three errors for every RBI, as he finished with 33 miscues. Enzo’s slugging percentages in his first three seasons- .250, .249, and .239- would be an outstanding series in bowling, but stand as a testament to his impotence in baseball.

The tiny Venezuelan with the tinier OPS managed to compile a slugging or on-base percentage in excess of .300 just once in his career, posting a .319 OBP as well as slugging .321 in 1976, his finest offensive performance by a significant margin.

His career BA/OBP/SLG line of .224/.283/.266 looks like a joke, but is in fact the line of a man who was a regular/semi-regular in the National League for six seasons.

A sort of poor man’s Neifi Perez, Enzo has become a symbol of the early Padre squads’ futility. Nonetheless, he wasn’t entirely bad. He was an excellent base-stealer on the rare occasions that he found himself on base. He seldom struck out, and was a competent bunter. And he wasn’t exactly the worst defensive shortstop in the league.

Crap, who am I kidding?!? Enzo Hernandez sucked. Whenever you find yourself frustrated by today’s Padres, be thankful that there’s no Enzo in the bunch.

Top 100 San Diego Padres: #86 Juan Bonilla

2006-05-23T15:19:00.000-07:00

JUAN GUILLERMO BONILLA | 2B | 1981-1983 | CAREER
STATS

Bonilla was originally drafted out of Florida State in 1977 by the New York Yankees with the 606th overall pick, but the pick was voided and in January of the following year, he was signed by the Cleveland Indians as an amateur free agent. He spent three seasons in the Cleveland organization and compiled a truly unspectacular batting line. Bonilla's ability with the bat began and ended with hitting for a decent average. That decent average coupled with range at second base was enough to entice Padres who traded Bob Lacey for him after acquiring Lacey four days earlier from the Oakland Athletics.

Juan Bonilla became the Padres' starting second baseman in his rookie year and he didn't disappoint at the plate hitting at a tick above average relative to the league and leading Padre infielders in On-Base Percentage. Despite leading NL second basemen with 13 errors, Bonilla showed good range. Acquiring Bonilla was looking like a good decision.

Unfortunately, Bonilla's sophomore season was shortened by a broken wrist and drug rehabilitation. During the 45 games he did play in, Bonilla's batting average fell ten points as did his Equivalent Average. One bright side was the improvement in his fielding which had been a negative his rookie season.

Bonilla's third season with the Padres is is the one that has him on this list. Despite his offensive numbers continuing to decline, Juan put together his most valuable season of his career thanks to what may well have been a fluky spike in his fielding value. Thanks to a holdout the following year, he would be released and would end up signing with the team that originally drafted him.

Top 100 San Diego Padres: #87 Jody Reed

2006-05-22T15:32:00.000-07:00

The following is a guest article by Michael Baker of metalsupply, a San Diego Padres blog.

JODY ERIC REED | 2B | 1995-1996 | CAREER
STATS

Between 1989 and 1991, Jody Reed was one of the better second baseman in the major leagues. Suffice it to say, he did not play those three seasons with the San Diego Padres, but rather with the team that drafted him, the Boston Red Sox. Reed was selected by the BoSox in the eighth round of the 1984 draft, and surfaced with the big team at the end of 1987. He stayed with the Red Sox until 1992.

Jody Reed was a classic '80s middle infielder. He was solid with the glove, had some gap power, and was a heady baserunner (That would be in reference to going from first to third on a single, not stealing bases. His career high in stolen bases was only seven. But Jody played the game “The Right Way”, looked good in a uniform, and had that intangible quality we now call "scrappy." Jody epitomized scrappitude.

After a major step back in 1992, the Red Sox chose not to protect Reed in the 1993 expansion draft. He was drafted by the Rockies, and was replaced in the Red Sox lineup by veteran Scott Fletcher. In unceremonious fashion, the Beantown club had washed its hands of Jody Reed. Soon thereafter, the Rockies traded Reed to the Dodgers for recent Padre great Rudy Seanez.

I imagine that Jody's $2.5 million contract (the fifth highest in baseball among second basemen) was attractive neither to the expansion Rockies nor the Sox considering his feeble bat, but the Dodgers needed a second baseman pretty badly. No other reasoning could possibly explain the events following Reed's only season with the Dodgers.

Jody's 1993 was quite a bit like his 1992, given modest improvement in average, on base percentage, and slugging percentage. He proved to be an eminently replaceable commodity if not for his reputed glovework, so much so that Dodgers GM Fred Claire was prepared to offer Jody a sizeable contract to continue with the Dodgers, somewhere in the arena of his previous year's contract, and for multiple years.

Jody would have none of it. His agent/brother-in-law decided to play hardball with Claire, and deemed Jody equal in value to Giant all-star second baseman Robby Thompson, who signed a multi-year pact that off-season for a $3.8-million annual salary. That was the moment that Fred Claire made the biggest bonehead move of his career. Desperate for a second baseman, but not willing to overpay for a mediocre player, Claire did exactly that in trading a young pitcher named Pedro Martinez to the Expos to acquire Delino DeShields. Thus, Jody Reed was left out in the cold. Or as Dodger Thoughts' Jon Weisman put it:

"Jody Reed booted nearly $8 million. Fred Claire booted Pedro Martinez. Both looked around and thought they had a better play to make. You can see the rationalization, so tantalizing. But what blindness. Neither saw that the correct play was right in front of them."

Jody claimed that it wasn't about the money, hinting that he was afraid of what might happen to him as Jose Offerman's double-play partner (a perfectly rational concern). In any event, Jody eventually signed a minor league contract with the Brewers for $750k, and the following year began his tenure in San Diego.

Jody's days with the Padres were like those of so many other veterans signed by the Padres (and Chargers, for that matter): his reputation in the big pond garnered him a lot of respect in San Diego's smaller pond, and he was a beloved member of the Padres 1996 NL West Championship team. He hit relatively well in the postseason that year, with two key hits off Donovan Osborne in the deciding Game 3.

That was the last game of Jody's two-season stint with the Padres. He was traded that offseason to Detroit for (among others) the late Mike Darr, and after one season with the Tigers he retired from baseball, probably not of his own choosing.

He currently resides in Tampa, Florida, where he grew up. His website, jodyreedbaseball.com, professes to teach kids to play baseball the right way. (Needless to say, his brother-in-law does not run a similar website for sports agents!) Says Jody:

"I will show you how to do everything the same way Major League ballplayers do it. Through video clips done by me, you will learn the same techniques and mechanics the best players in the world use. We also communicate through message boards, chat rooms and even live webcasts to allow you a more personal training experience with a former Major Leaguer."

Lo, how the mighty have fallen. Once one of the five highest-paid players at his position, he's now available for a person-to-person Internet chat for the low, low price of thirty American dollars - a small price for any true Padres fan.

Top 100 San Diego Padres: #88 Bob Barton

2006-05-19T16:11:00.000-07:00

ROBERT WILBUR BARTON | C| 1970-1972, 1974 | CAREER
STATS

What can be said of Bob Barton that has not already been said?

I could call him a poor man’s Fred Kendall. Additionally, I might comment on the fact that Barton was the only member of our Top 100 club of whom I had no recollection. And of course it bears mentioning that our rankings place him as the seventh greatest catcher in Padre history. Oh, and he was born on a Wednesday.

In December 1969, after parts of five seasons of offensive impotence as a San Francisco Giant, Barton was shipped to the Friars with Bobby Etheridge and Ron Herbel. The Giants received Frank Reberger in the deal.

That Bob Barton was arguably the best player involved in this package speaks volumes of the insignificance of the deal. But a team has to play somebody at catcher, and Bob Barton became that somebody here in San Diego.

Barton struggled mightily in his first Padre campaign, posting a .592 OPS in limited duty. His second year with the club would be the best of his career. Playing in 121 games, he compiled an OPS of .663, just .021 beneath the league average. His modest success would be short-lived, however, as his playing time was limited to just 29 games the following season, which would see his OPS plummet to .413 (Yes, four-thirteen.).

Swapped to the Reds in mid-1972, Barton would appear in only two games as a Red before returning to San Diego to close out his career with a lackluster 1974. Released by the Padres on October of that year, Robert Wilbur Barton surprisingly has resurfaced as number 88 in our Padre countdown.

Monkey Eaten by Bear?

2006-05-17T00:24:00.000-07:00

It's slightly less unfortunate than the Padres losing two in a row to the D'Backs.

Shortstops by Net Runs Above Average

2006-05-12T13:12:00.000-07:00

I think you'll recognize the guy at the top of the list.

Top 100 San Diego Padres: #89 Scott Sanders

2006-05-12T12:50:00.000-07:00

SCOTT GERALD SANDERS | SP/RP | 1993-1996, 1998 | CAREER
STATS

After being drafted 32nd overall by the Padres in the 1990 amateur draft, Sanders would spend the next four years compiling a 4.83 RA and a 2.00 K/BB ratio from Low A to Triple A. That performance coupled no doubt with his being a first round pick was good enough to get nine starts at the Major League level in 1993. He was barely a third of a win above replacement across the 52.3 innings he pitched, but teams have seen worse performances from "established" starters (*cough*Tim Redding*cough*).

Scott performed well enough in '93 to get another chance in '94 and in just over twice as many innings, he was good for about nine times as much production. Scott would also see his first action out of the 'pen in a handful of high leverage situations and he performed well enough to put up a WXRL of .446 in only three appearances. Before one such appearance, Sanders was arrested for soliciting undercover policewomen posing as prostitutes. The Padres won that game with Scott picking up his first career save.

The following season, Sanders drew ever closer to a league average RA and was only half a win short of his previous career high despite pitching in six fewer games. Then in 1996, Sanders finally showed a flash of what would have made him a first round pick when he posted a RA 28% lower than the league average and was better than four and a half wins above replacement. Despite this breakout or because of it, Sanders was dealt in the off season for Sterling Hitchcock.

Sanders' days as a Padre weren't over though because in May of '98, the Padres dealt Rod Lindsey to the Tigers to bolster the bullpen. Unfortunately, Scott would post the worst numbers of his Padre career and he was cut in early September.

Experiencing Technical Difficulties

2006-05-06T16:16:00.000-07:00

Richard is having some computer issues.

Which is why our Top 100 has been stuck on Jerry Turner for over two weeks. Many of the upcoming player bios have already been written, and the graphics compiled; apparently, it's all trapped in Richard's hard drive, or something like that. I don't pretend to understand such things.

I am confident that it will all be ironed out soon, however, and that a flurry of Top 100 posts will immediately ensue.

In the meantime, our Friars have won six in a row, and Tony Gwynn's Aztec squad pummeled Air Force, 36-11, yesterday.

Yes, that's 36 runs. And no, Dave Magadan is not the Aztecs hitting coach.

Top 100 San Diego Padres: #90 Jerry Turner

2006-04-22T16:20:00.000-07:00

JOHN WEBBER TURNER | LF/RF | 1974-1981, 1983 | CAREER
STATS

Like many 1970’s Padres, in 1979 Jerry Turner was a man asked to do a job at which he had no hopes of succeeding.

Turner logged one of the great pinch-hitting performances in baseball’s long history in 1978. His .408 average in pinch situations stands alone. He clubbed five pinch homers. And the San Diego Padre brass decided that he might make a fine regular leftfielder.

No less an authority than my father (forgive me, Dad…) deemed Jerry an approaching savior. My dad insisted that Turner would put up numbers to make my hero, Dave Winfield, blush. Perhaps the Hall of Fame voters missed something, but the debate over which team’s cap Jerry Webber Turner will wear on his plaque has sparked little interest to date.

Turner had been a 10th round Padre draft pick in 1972, but his performance in the farm system moved him quickly toward the big club, and he reached the majors in 1974, at age 20. Once with the Padres, Jerry settled into a steady bench role of mashing right-handed pitchers. Although he had plus power and speed, he didn’t hit lefties or play defense well enough to warrant a regular line-up spot, even for the lowly Padres.

My friend Frank, older than dirt and with the memory of an elephant, offered this Jerry Turner remembrance via e-mail:

“Quick Jerry Turner story: Late 70’s TV day game. Dodger Stadium, he’s playing leftfield, short porch in the corner near the foul pole. High fly hit, there were those little gates to keep fans off the field. The usher bumps into a gate and knocks it open while ball is in air. Jerry, who was a stick guy not in there for his D, tracks the ball straight back, goes through the gate, into the stands, climbs about four steps, and catches the ball. True story.”

Coincidentally, I remembered that play. I remembered it as a foul ball, and I recalled Turner stumbling/tripping up the steps. Pretty much the same story, though, and I’m sure it’s the same play (Somebody Retrosheet this for us. The security of the Free World is at stake. Plus, I need to know that I’m right, and Frank is wrong.).

Frank’s senility aside, Jerry Turner’s career as an everyday outfielder was unsuccessful and short-lived, being confined to 1979. And I want to remind my dad that Winfield led the NL in RBI that year, while hitting .308 with 34 dingers. Won the Gold Glove. Got screwed out of the MVP, as a matter of fact.

Jerry Turner in 1979? Nine homers. An OBP lower than Winfield’s batting average. Butcher in the field, fluke play at Dodger Stadium notwithstanding.

Turner’s career came to a close when he returned to the Padres in 1983, after having left for stints with the White Sox and Tigers. He was out of the majors by age 30. He remains involved in professional baseball, however, as batting coach of the independent Golden League’s Fullerton Flyers. And he was by all accounts a “good clubhouse guy.”

Well, It's A Pretty Graph

2006-04-20T11:52:00.000-07:00

So, I made this graph and I'm fairly certain it should tell me something about Adrian Gonzalez and his "true" EQA. I'll see if I can figure out what that is later. For now, well, it's a pretty graph.

Top 100 San Diego Padres: #91 Steve Arlin

2006-04-17T15:36:00.000-07:00

STEPHEN RALPH ARLIN | SP | 1969-1974 | CAREER STATS

Drafted by the Padres from the Philadelphia Phillies in the 1968 expansion draft with the 57th overall pick, Steve Arlin began his Padre career with Columbus in the International League. Despite an atrocious 41:42 K:BB ratio, he was called up and predictably pitched at below replacement level. Arlin would begin the following year with Salt Lake City and would improve his K:BB ratio to 52:50. Allow the fact that 52:50 was an improvement to sink in. Arlin would get another call up and in two starts put up an impressive RA+ despite walking nearly three times as many batters as he struck out.

By 1971 it was clear that Arlin's unfortunate performance was "good" enough to warrant a spot in the starting rotation. His biggest "accomplishment" of 1971 outside of managing to keep his job was giving up a monster home run to Bob Robertson that landed in the 70-foot high RF upper deck at Three Rivers Stadium. Second on the list was leading the NL with 19 losses.

The following year was an improvement. According to Baseball Library, Arlin would throw three two-hitters, a one-hitter and also a 10-inning one-hit game. The one-hitter occurred on June 23rd and wasn't a near no-hitter as Garry Maddox tripled in the 2nd inning. Arlin's two-hitter on July 18, however, was as close as a Padre has come to throwing a no-hitter. With two outs in the ninth, it was still intact. Unfortunately, Zimmer would elect to have Dave Roberts play in close out at third and the result would be a ball dumped over his head. 1972 was also memorable for it being the second consecutive year that Arlin led the NL in losses.

The last two years of Arlin's Padre career were forgettable at best and his final season as a Friar actually did more to hurt his position on this list than help and by June of that year he was packaged for players to be named later. Neither amounted to anything as Padres.

Top 100 San Diego Padres: #92 Donne Wall

2006-04-17T11:47:00.000-07:00

DONNELL LEE WALL | RP | 1998-2000 | CAREER STATS

Drafted by the Houston Astros in 1989, Donne Wall wouldn't make his Major League debut until September of 1995. Two years later, the Cincinnati Reds claimed him off waivers. Then roughly a month after that he was packaged with Paul Bako to the Detroit tigers in exchange for Melvin Nieves. It would take another eight days before he was packaged with Ryan Balfe and Dan Miceli and sent off to the San Diego Padres in exchange for Trey Beamon and Tim Worrell.

As a member of the Houston Astros, Wall was used as a starter, but had little to no success in that role. The Padres didn't make that mistake. As a reliever for San Diego, Wall put up three of the four most productive seasons of his career. 1998 was his strongest effort and one that helped solidify the Padre bullpen. The next season, Wall regressed roughly half a win, but remained valuable especially for a middle reliever. Two successful seasons seemed to give Bochy more confidence in Wall because in 2000, Donne was used with a great deal more frequency in high leverage situations and he didn't give Boch reason to regret as you can see from his WXRL that year.

Wall's role on the team, that of a middle reliever, likely made him somewhat forgettable, but he was very productive in his time in San Diego. And that's what we're measuring here. I assume more Padre fans remember Eric Owens and Bubba Trammell, but they weren't as valuable as Wall and others who made the list.

Batted Balls and Blow Outs

2006-04-09T23:51:00.000-07:00

If one were to look at the defense independent pitching stats applicable to today's game first, one would be shocked at the final score. That's because they suggest that Padre pitchers would have thrown over eleven innings while giving up roughly six runs, or a 4.88 ERA. The Rockies pitchers were only marginally better appearing to have thrown just over eight innings and allowing a bit more than four runs, or a 4.65 ERA.

How did we get the result we got then? Two factors: Awful fielding and bad luck. A lot of both, actually. We can only hope for a change in the latter, but the former we can expect to improve. Cameron's return from the DL will vastly improve the outfield. Dave Roberts cannot play a credible centerfield and I really can't say enough about how much I detest seeing Eric Young in the starting lineup. I won't wish injury on anyone, but we have a better chance of that taking playing time from undeserving veterans than we do of Bochy doing it.

Top 100 San Diego Padres: #93 Leron Lee

2006-04-06T20:41:00.000-07:00

LERON LEE | LF/RF | 1971-1973 | CAREER
STATS

Leron Lee is Derrek Lee’s uncle.

The End.

To be fair, Derrek’s uncle had a career not entirely devoid of distinction. He was a prospect of note after signing with the Cardinals as the seventh pick in the 1966 draft. He reached the majors at age 21, and was seeing semi-regular duty by the following season. Despite his rapid ascension through the ranks, his primary attributes to that point were his outstanding athleticism (more applicable to football, a sport in which he was a high school star), and the fact that he looked good in a uniform.

His performance on the diamond failing to endear him to the organization, the Cards packaged the uncle of Derrek Lee with Fred Norman in a June, 1971 swap with the Padres for a guy named Al Santorini. That the Pads could pull off such a brilliant transaction, yet remain one of the worst clubs in history, continues to perplex. The fact remains, however, that they could, and that they did.

Upon donning the Padre urine-yellow-and-brown, Leron (he’s Derrek Lee’s uncle, you know…) made like his unborn nephew, and hit. He finished the ’71 campaign by posting an OPS+ of 107 with the Padres, a harbinger of the fluke season that he would enjoy the following year.

To call Lee’s 1972 season an outlier would be something of an understatement. He compiled career highs in at-bats, runs, hits, doubles, triples, home runs, RBI, batting average, OBP, and slugging. His OPS+ of 125 at the tender age of 24 stamped him as an upcoming star.

Stardom, however, would not come to pass for Leron Lee (unlike his nephew Derrek). He apparently remembered that he was a Padre, rather than a major league ballplayer. Nineteen-seventy-three saw his OBP drop nearly 50 points, while his slugging percentage dropped a full 200 points. The Friar front office, having seen enough, put Lee on waivers in March of 1974.

Claimed off waivers by the Cleveland Indians, he continued his new trend of being a crappy player on a crappy team. No matter, as Leron Lee will always have 1972. Plus, he's Derrek Lee’s uncle. I’m sure he’s proud of that, too. And making our Top 100 is quite a feather in his cap, as well. Did I mention that Derrek Lee is his nephew? Well, he is, and he’s really good.

The Syringe

2006-04-04T15:53:00.000-07:00

The kerfuffle over the syringe thrown onto the field is beyond stupid. The comparisons I've heard to throwing batteries (I'm talking to you, Mighty XX talk show hosts!) are incredibly off base. Throwing something onto the field of play is wrong and is grounds for dismissal. That's a given. That said, throwing a plastic syringe with no needle is far closer to when some idiot Dodger fan blows up a beach ball and it ends up on the field than hurling batteries intending to cause bodily harm.

Moron who threw syringe ≠ to Phillies fans

Moron who threw syringe = to Dodger fans

Yes, that's still bad, but seriously this has been way overblown. We should be talking about how dominant Peavy was or how ugly Dave Roberts's fielding in center is not that some dork threw a piece of plastic within ten feet of Bonds.

Top 100 San Diego Musicians: #1 Buddy Blue

2006-04-03T19:51:00.000-07:00

Today I was supposed to post Padre #93. It will have to wait until tomorrow.

My friend Buddy Seigal died yesterday. Known in music and journalism circles as "Buddy Blue," it is doubtful that anyone had a bigger impact on the San Diego music scene in my lifetime.

As a musician, Buddy was a virtuoso on any instrument with strings. As a songwriter, his masterfully-crafted works in rockabilly, jazz, swing, jump-blues, and bluegrass stamped him as an American Roots giant.

Buddy was a founder and integral member of The Rockin' Roulettes, The Beat Farmers, The Jacks, The Buddy Blue Band, The Flying Putos, and The Farmers. He produced and/or played on albums by such luminaries as Darlin'& Rose, Romy Kaye, Billy Bacon & the Forbidden Pigs, Joy Eden Harrison, Earl Thomas, Mike Keneally, Judy Henske, The Rugburns, and Screamin' Jay Hawkins.

Every Thursday for the last four years, the Union-Tribune featured his "Blue Notes" column, a collection of notes and commentary on music that was often controversial, and always entertaining. He was in demand as a music journalist, writing regularly for a wide variety of publications. His influence as a journalist loomed nearly as large as his influence as an artist.

Buddy Blue's artistic impact was matched, or even exceeded by, the magnitude of the mark he left as a husband, father, and friend.

When I was a toddler, I wanted to be around the "school-aged" boys. Once in grade school, I looked up to the junior high guys. By the time I was a high school freshman, I yearned to be seen with the seniors. And as a young adult, I desperately wanted to hang out with Buddy Blue.

I got my wish, as I was fortunate enough to become friends with my musical hero. From afar, I had idolized him, but as his friend, I loved him.

My heart is with Buddy's family, and his countless friends.

Top 100 San Diego Padres: #94 Dave Roberts

2006-04-02T12:34:00.000-07:00

DAVID WAYNE ROBERTS | C/3B | 1972-1978 | CAREER STATS

Drafted June 6, 1972 by the San Diego Padres with the first overall pick, Dave Roberts would make his debut the very next day when called upon to replace John Jeter in the top of the 12th inning. He would strike out twice that day while going hitless. It wasn't the kind of start one would want to get a career off to, but it was only his first day on the job. And while Roberts didn't rebound much from his lackluster start he did manage to be worth about one win better than replacement over the course of his rookie campaign.

Perhaps the most memorable moment of Roberts's season was on July 18 when Steve Arlin took a no-hitter into the 9th inning and with two outs Philadelphia's Denny Doyle hit a 2-out bloop single over the rookie's head to break it up.

Roberts's second time through the league seemed to erase any possible doubt that he was deserving of the #1 overall pick the year before. He hit .286/.310/.472 while playing a solid third base. That line probably doesn't look impressive to some, but you have to look at it in the context of the 1973 National League where an average player hit .254/.318/.375.

Unfortunately, 1974 would swing opinion permanently back the other way. Dave's stat line was atrocious for any era and it would be the last year he cracked 100 games as a Padre. It's likely for the best that he didn't because he ceased to hit rather completely.

In 1978, the Padres would ship Roberts out as part of a five player deal that featured no big names (unless you count Bevacqua, and I don't). Roberts's Padre career was a disappointment given the expectations of being the first overall pick, but his one excellent season combined with his production off the bench was enough to make him one of San Diego's top 100 players.

Top 100 San Diego Padres: #95 Jerry Mumphrey

2006-03-29T19:07:00.000-08:00

JERRY WAYNE MUMPHREY | CF | 1980 | CAREER
STATS

It was 1980, and speed was king. Baseball’s landscape was littered with basethieves more daring and prolific than any in today’s game. And no team boasted more of these larcenous jackrabbits than the San Diego Padres.

This was the game I grew up with, and while I now realize the insignificance of the stolen base on runs scored, I will never forget how much fun it was to watch. And watching the Padres, the first team in MLB history to feature three players with 50 or more steals, was indeed fun.

The most effective of the local bandits was a comically bad-fielding centerfielder named Jerry Mumphrey. In his lone season in Padre-brown, Mumphrey stole 52 bases (30 more than the second-best total in his fifteen-year career) and was caught a mere five times. His .298 batting average and 49 bases on balls enabled him to post a .352 OBP, relative to a league OBP of .320. Jerry’s stolen base total, in addition to Gene Richards’ 61, Ozzie Smith’s 57, and Dave Winfield’s 23, helped the Friars pace the NL with a now-unthinkable 239 thefts.

Unfortunately, much of the apparent value of Mumphrey’s offensive performance was negated by his defensive misadventures. His circuitous routes to the ball, coupled with his league-leading 11 (yes, ELEVEN) errors, made him a less-than-ideal centerfielder. With the equally inept Richards in left, perennial Gold Glover Winfield was the pitchers’ only outfield friend.

Mumphrey had been obtained from the Indians for Bob Owchinko and Jim Wilhelm, neither of whom will appear in this Top 100 countdown. On March 31 the following year, after a single memorable Padre campaign, Jerry was shipped to the Yankees with John Pacella in exchange for Ruppert Jones, Joe Lefebvre, Tim Lollar, and Chris Welsh. Two of the players netted in that transaction will appear on our list. Essentially, Owchinko, Wilhelm, and Pacella were swapped for three of the 100 best players in team history. If that is to be Jerry Mumphrey’s legacy, perhaps 95 is too low a ranking

Top 100 San Diego Padres: #96 Marvell Wynne

2006-03-28T08:45:00.000-08:00

The following is a guest article by Michael Baker of metalsupply, a San Diego Padres blog.

MARVELL WYNNE | LF/CF/RF | 1986-1989 | CAREER STATS

Marvell Wynne was never a great player, but he was one of my favorites. He lingers in my memory for his above-average centerfield defense and his great baseball name. He played only eight seasons in the major leagues, and only three-and-a-half years with the Padres, but Marvell managed to make a lot out of a limited skill set, somewhat similar to later Padres player Eric Owens and Padres draftee Thomas Howard.

Marvell was originally signed as an undrafted free agent by the Kansas City Royals in 1979. In 1981 he was traded to the Mets for Juan Berenguer (a terrible trade for the Mets), and later played for the Pirates, with whom he first reached the major leagues.

Marvell was primarily used as a defense-first centerfielder, and he arguably never would have played a game in the major leagues if not for his quick jump and good range. Early in his career he stole a few bases and managed to score a few runs, but he had no power whatsoever, terrible plate discipline, and generally hit like a pitcher. He was caught stealing as often as he was successful, which probably accounts for him stealing no more than 12 bases in any season apart from 1984, his only season as a regular.

In 1986, just after spring training, Marvell was traded to the Padres for reliever/spot starter Bob Patterson. In four seasons with the Padres, Wynne never accumulated more than 350 at bats. He had arguably his finest season as a professional with the Padres in 1988, when he compiled a .751 OPS in limited duty.

In 1989, Wynne was traded with Luis Salazar to the Cubs for the aged Calvin Schiraldi, Darrin Jackson, and Phil Stephenson. After spending a little more than a year with the Cubs, Marvell Wynne's MLB career ended, and given the choice of a hard life on the road in the minor leagues or a steady paycheck elsewhere, he chose the latter. He ended his career with the Hanshin Tigers in Osaka, the former team of Rob Deer, Tsuyoshi Shinjo, Larry Parrish, Randy Bass, and Cecil Fielder. The team currently features former Padre Andy Sheets and one time Yankees phenom Shane Spencer. When he retired, Wynne returned to his home in Poway, CA.

Interestingly, Marvell Wynne might not be the best athlete named Marvell Wynne in his own family. His son, Marvell Wynne II, was a highly touted collegiate soccer player at UCLA, and was recently the first overall pick in the 2006 Major League Soccer SuperDraft. He will begin his professional career as a defender for the New York Red Bull (formerly MetroStars).

Top 100 San Diego Padres: #97 Dave Campbell

2006-03-27T09:41:00.000-08:00

DAVID WILSON CAMPBELL | 1B/2B/3B/SS/LF | 1970-1973 | CAREER STATS

University of Michigan product Dave Campbell was acquired (with Pat Dobson) by the Padres in December of 1969 in exchange for Joe Niekro. Campbell, whose first major league hit was a home run for the 1968 World Champion Tigers, would become the Padres regular second baseman in 1970.

In what passed for a good season for a Friar of that woeful era, Dave led NL second basemen in putouts and assists. His 12 homeruns would be the franchise standard at the keystone position for two decades, surviving until Brett Boone clubbed 19 during the 2000 campaign. Still, Campbell’s OBP of .268, and slugging pct. of .336 left something to be desired.

Nonetheless, Dave Campbell would remain in the lineup for another season, finishing sixth in the league with 12 sacrifice hits in 1971. He saw part-time duty for the Padres for the following season-and-a-half before being shipped to the Cardinals for Dwain Anderson.

After closing out his big league career in a lackluster fashion with the Houston Astros, Campbell went on to a distinguished broadcasting career, teaming with Jerry Coleman from 1978-88 (excepting Coleman’s managerial stint in ’80) in the Padres’ booth, and later attaining greater fame as an integral part of ESPN’s radio and television team, for whom he continues to provide stellar work.

Bellhorn & Blum

2006-03-26T15:10:00.000-08:00

Redundancy.

There would seem to be little place for it on a roster, given the limitations already inherent in selecting 25 players with whom to begin a season.

And yet it would appear that the Padres will carry both Mark Bellhorn and Geoff Blum, a matched pair if ever there was one. Switch-hitters who have demonstrated the ability to play every infield position passably, either would represent the consummate utility infielder.

Most winning teams have a guy like this. Winning teams seldom have two of them, however.
Each man can be used as a pinch hitter and spot-starter, as well as a replacement for an injured starter for a significant stretch of time. This is the sum of their value.

What the club lacks on the bench is an infielder who can be used as a late-inning defensive replacement, or as a pinch-runner. Blum and Bellhorn do not suffice in this area.

In addition to these guys, we've got Eric Young, who at least can play centerfield (sort of) and pinch-run, but who is an otherwise similar player. I honestly don't know what the hell the Padres are doing.

My suggestion is to try to trade Blum, as Bellhorn is better (he reaches base far more often, and has more power). That failing, release him. Release Young, as well. There are dozens of guys in the minors who can do these jobs for the league minimum. Release Klesko, too. Give Adrian Gonzalez the first base job, and cross your fingers.

On second thought, it's probably better to keep Blum, release Vinny Castilla, and install Bellhorn at third. Release Doug Mirabelli, too, and find out where Doug Gwosdz is. He'll come cheap.

Release Dave Roberts, too. He's the only one of the three Dave Roberts's who've played for the Padres who won't be cracking our Top 100. That should tell you all you need to know about the guy. I'll take my chances with Ben Johnson, or Terrmel Sledge.

Sledge, for sure. He's got a funny name, and we all know how far that took Top Padre #184, Archi Cianfrocco.

Did I miss anyone? Are there any other players who should be released?!?!

Didn't think so.

Top 100 San Diego Padres: #98 Mark Thurmond

2006-03-26T14:30:00.000-08:00

MARK ANTHONY THURMOND | SP | 1983-1986 | CAREER STATS

Drafted by the Padres out of Texas A&M in the fifth round of the 1979 draft, pitcher Mark Thurmond was the heir-apparent to the “crafty lefty” mantle shouldered proudly in previous seasons by Randy Jones.

He appeared equal to the task upon reaching the big club in 1983. Hitting the ground running, Thurmond posted a 7-3 win-loss mark, to go with a stingy 2.65 ERA. His lack of strikeout stuff - just 49 punch-outs in 115 1/3 innings - went unnoticed in a baseball community that had yet to notice a young sabermetrician named Bill James.

Mark continued to trick NL hitters with smoke and mirrors in 1984, logging a big season for the World Series-bound Padres. He notched the second most victories on the club, going 14-8, en route to a 2.97 ERA. The left side of the ’84 squad’s infield, comprised of Graig Nettles and Garry Templeton, helped the stuff-challenged lefty turn numerous ground balls into outs, enabling him to allow less hits than innings pitched. It would be the last time Thurmond would accomplish such a feat as a Friar, however, as his alarmingly low 57 K’s in 178-2/3 innings served as an indicator that his days as an effective starter were coming to an end.

The wheels came off in the 1984 World Series, as Thurmond lost Game One 3-2, and was bounced after retiring only one hitter in the first inning of Game Five, having been touched up for three runs.

In 1985 the ERA rose by a full run, the win-loss record flip-flopped to 7-11, and the man who had just a year earlier been among the top lefties in the NL began to fall out of favor with the Padre brass. In July of 1986, Mark Thurmond was sent to the Detroit Tigers, who had battered him senseless in the World Series less than two years prior, in exchange for Dave LaPoint.

Thurmond finished his career performing mop-up duties in Detroit, Baltimore, and finally in San Francisco, for whom he threw his final pitch in 1990. His prominent role for the Padres’ first pennant-winning club remains the crowning achievement in an otherwise-undistinguished career.

Billy McCool...

2006-03-26T13:33:00.000-08:00

...is among the multitudes who once played for the San Diego Padres.

Heathcliff Slocumb, too. And Archi Cianfrocco, Atlee Hammaker, Fred Kuhaulua, even Rick Lancelotti.

How McCool is that?

The Kent Hrbek All Stars

2006-03-25T18:02:00.000-08:00

When running the numbers for our Top 100 Padres, Richard went way beyond the top 100. And in doing so, he brought to my attention that the following players all donned Padre uniforms:

#114- Joe Lefebvre
#389- Doug Gwosdz
#489- Adam Hyzdu
#572- Jason Szuminski
#575 Ed Wojna
#617- Eric Cyr
#629- Walt Hriniak

Now, Gwosdz was a truly exceptional catcher hampered by the fact that he was among the worst hitters in MLB history, and Hriniak would go on to great acclaim as a hitting instructor (Gwosdz could've used his help...).

Nonetheless, a crappier bunch of ballplayers you couldn't hope for. It does make me feel better, though, that both Mike Champion and Champ Summers were Padres.

Top 100 San Diego Padres: #99 Tim Worrell

2006-03-22T21:50:00.000-08:00

TIMOTHY HOWARD WORRELL | RP | 1993-1997 | CAREER STATS

Drafted by the Padres in the 20th round of the 1989 amateur entry draft out of Biola University, Worrell would spend four seasons in the minors before a solid showing in 1993 earned him a call-up. He would make his first Major League appearance as a reliever on June 25th at Jack Murphy Stadium against the visiting Reds. It wasn't terribly successful, as Worrell with 2 on and 2 out in the third would give up a three run home run to Kevin Mitchell. Those three runs were more than enough for the Reds' Tim Belcher who allowed only two runs in his complete game that day.

Tim was a below average pitcher in '93, but still had some value as an above replacement level player. It looked as though he might have more success his second time through the league having matched his previous season's production in his first three starts. Unfortunately, his season would be cut short by a torn elbow ligament, going in for Tommy John surgery on May 12, 1994 and not returning until September 1, 1995. Tim made nine relief appearances to close out the '95 season in unspectacular fashion.

1996 would mark the first time the Padres made the post season since 1984 and the reason Tim Worrell makes this list. At 28 years old and in a pennant race, Worrell had a career year. In his first full season back from surgery, Worrell was a solid 34% better than average at preventing runs and was worth nearly five wins relative to replacement. Only Trevor Hoffman was more valuable out of the bullpen for the Padres in 1996 and while Hoffy picked up three saves in the final series of the season, Tim was the winning pitcher in both of the games he appeared in. Unfortunately, the Padres were swept in the opening round of the playoffs, but Worrell and his 2.45 post season ERA weren't to blame.

Tim's next season wouldn't be nearly as productive as he would pitch 15 fewer innings over ten more games and would see his RA increase by more than two. It was only his second full year as a Padre and it would also be his last. Worrell was sent packing along with Trey Beamon in a trade that would net Donne Wall, Dan Miceli and Ryan Balfe from the Detroit Tigers the following off-season.

Top 100 San Diego Padres: #100 Akinori Otsuka

2006-03-22T14:06:00.000-08:00

AKINORI OTSUKA | RP | 2004-2005 | CAREER STATS

Signed as a free agent prior to the 2004 season, Otsuka who had been one of the best relievers in the history of the Japanese League had no trouble adapting to Major League Baseball. Aki's unorthodox delivery, wicked slider and relative luck with turning balls put into play into outs were good for a 1.75 ERA, a steady job as Trevor Hoffman's 8th inning setup man and third place in the Rookie of the Year balloting behind teammate Khalil Greene and former Padre farmhand Jason Bay.

The unorthodox delivery, which involved a small tap in his glove with the ball, was the matter of some controversy. On May 2, 2004 following one pitch by Aki in the 8th inning, the Mets played the game under protest. "We felt it was an illegal pitch, the way he (Otsuka) was delivering the ball," said Art Howe. The argument was that the move was deceiving to runners on base and ought to be called a balk. The league disagreed. The Padres won. And Aki picked up a Hold, which he would go on to lead the league in that year. He would also pitch in the ninth most games of any Padre pitcher in a single season.

Overall, Aki was good for 4.6 Wins Above Replacement in 2005, but thanks to Manager Bruce Bochy's decision to call on Aki in high leverage situations, he managed 5.1 WXRL (Win Expectation relative to replacement level and the quality of lineup faced).

2005 was a bit of a disappointment following his outstanding 2004 campaign. Fans saw his strikeout rate fall, walk rate climb and RA balloon. Part of Aki's problem that season was his BABIP regressing toward league average and less favorable groupings of walks and hits. In fact, his Peripheral ERA rose only about half of a run. Despite the drop off in production, he was still a valuable asset worth nearly 3 wins over replacement.

In the off-season following 2005, Otsuka was dealt to the Texas Rangers as part of a six player trade. Barring a return via free agency later in his career, and the Padres do like to bring back former players in the twilight of their careers, we can safely assume that Aki will not climb any higher on the Padres All-Time List.

Infield Musings

2006-03-12T13:24:00.000-08:00

Barfield appears a lock.

Given Josh Barfield's tremendous spring performance thus far, it would appear that he is in the process of locking-up the second base job. It could be assumed that this development would render Mark Bellhorn superfluous, but that assumption would be incorrect.

With the NL West essentially up for grabs, it seems clear to me that our chances of taking the division crown would be improved mightily if Bellhorn were to supplant Vinny Castilla at third base. Bellhorn figures to post an OBP roughly .075 higher than Castilla, with similar power numbers.

Castilla's supposed defensive wizardry could not possibly close that gap. Brooks Robinson, in his prime, could not close that gap. Teams that have more batters reach base, score more runs. This is obvious to most people not named Bruce Bochy.

And yet, Bochy is an intelligent man, and I trust that he will not take long to recognize the offensive-cipher that Castilla will prove to be.

Klesko done

Or possibly not. I suspect Ryan is capable, still, of a .285/.380/.490 line, even playing half his games in Petco. If he can attain those numbers, the Padres will be tough to beat in the West.

If not, let the Adrian Gonzalez era begin. Or the Walter Young era. Or Tagg Bozied. Really, I'm not picky.

Khalil Greene blossoms?

Sort of. I expect large strides on the offensive side. Seventy extra-base hits are not out of the question, coupled with a leap in bases-on-balls, and a corresponding jump in OBP and slugging.
Think .275/.360/.510. Which is one hell of a line for a shortstop in Petco.

Richard: I'll be shocked if he slugs over .480. I expect something like .260/.330/.440. Maybe a little more average and a bit more power (.270/.340/.470 maybe), but no way he slugs over .500 or has an OBP over .350.

In short, this will be the year he becomes an offensive force, if he's ever going to. It needs to happen, because the apparent benefits of his defense at shortstop are going to disappear in about three years, and he'll be our third baseman.

Mike Piazza

Just hit a grand slam in his first spring training game as a Padre. Just sayin.'

Richard:

Chan Ho Park out of the pen?

He's looked good in relief pitching for Korea and I think that may be where he's most valuable for the Padres this year. His PECOTA Weighted Mean Average as a starter is a K/9 of 6.32, BB/9 of 4.42, HR/9 of 0.98 and ERA of 4.96. If adjusted to relief the numbers are 7.33, 4.81, 0.80 and 3.92. Not bad.

A Voice of Reason...

2006-03-08T10:46:00.000-08:00

...amongst the angry mob, courtesy of Dan LeBatard:

Steroid story a case study of situational ethics

I won't pretend that Barry Bonds is a nice guy. But I also won't pretend that common opinion of him and his accomplishments is anything less than unreasonable, illogical, and ignorant.

That being said, I sure am tired of Bonds kicking the Padres' collective ass.

About That Van Mo Show...

2006-03-06T21:49:00.000-08:00

...it was totally on Saturday night.

I was just so quiveringly eager on Friday, y'know??? So I got a little carried away.
The great man was amazing, though. I would have to say that he has become a more remarkable singer with age. He only played about 90-minutes, however, and nobody in the audience had had enough by then. Not a single tune from Astral Weeks, either.

Still completely worth the L.A. road trip, and the cash.

Kirby Puckett, R.I.P.

Our thoughts go out to Puckett's family and friends, and also to Minnesota Twin fans everywhere. The bowling-ball centerfielder played baseball the way we all hope to live our lives- with exuberance and joy. A career cut short-and a life cut tragically short-will not dim our memories of Puckett.

Thanks...

...to those who have offered to assist in the "Top Pads" project. We think this is going to be a lot of fun to put together, and even more fun to read, as it unfolds.

There will be loads of guest-contributions, without which the project could never come to fruition. So again, thanks. We hope to begin posting with Padre #100 on March 20, which is, appropriately enough, the first day of Spring.

And for those on the edge of your seat, #100 is not Hideki Irabu.

Coming Soon...

2006-03-03T12:07:00.000-08:00

All-time Top 100 Padres

Work has begun. We've received positive feedback from several potential contributors, some of whom are among the best-known Padre-voices on the internet. Stay tuned...

And not related to baseball...

I'm going to see Van Morrison tonight. Cool.

Hope Springs Eternal

2006-03-02T19:18:00.000-08:00

At long last, a post at "Friar Faithful."

During our nearly 2-1/2 month absence, Richard and I have been mulling over ideas for the blog. A rundown of our top Padres of all time is in the works, and we'll gradually assess the myriad transactions the club has engaged in since December.

If anyone hadn't given us up for dead, and finds themself reading this, know that baseball is back, and so is "Friar Faithful."

The upcoming months promise a veritable cornucopia o' Padre commentary here.

Really.

No... seriously. I'm not kidding.

Deal with Rangers Consummated

2005-12-20T22:53:00.000-08:00

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Kevin Towers pulled off an outstanding trade.

Padres Get: Chris Young, Adrian Gonzalez, Terrmel Sledge
Padres Give: Adam Eaton, Akinori Otsuka, Billy Killian

If you're a Padre fan, you have to like that deal.

For those not terribly good at interpreting stats: Young is better. He's also cheaper. He's locked up through 2010 compared to 2006. Oh, and he's younger, too.

Gonzalez is an excellent fielder and is developing at the plate. He makes contact, has decent patience and is expected to develop power, though PetCo may hide any advances in that department.

Sledge is a quality fourth outfielder who could start for some teams.

Billy Killians is the #4 catcher in our system and is not among the Padres top 30 prospects overall.

Otsuka is a 34 y/o middle reliever who regressed in 2005.

Check out Lone Star Ball for their reaction.

Busy, Busy, Busy...

2005-12-07T19:50:00.000-08:00

Hoffman has re-signed near the upper limits of what I said in the comments I would be okay with. Burroughs has been shipped to Tampa for Dewon Brazelton, in an exchange of former top-ten draft picks (and top-flight disappointments). And Loretta will be rocketing doubles off the Green Monster, having been dealt to Boston for Doug Mirabelli. Really.

Reaction will be forthcoming. And Richard will provide the actual analysis.

Padres, Hoffman Agree to Terms

2005-12-07T15:14:00.000-08:00

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Sounds like 2 years with a third year option. Nothing is confirmed.

The Padres 2006 Outfield

2005-12-01T13:37:00.000-08:00

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The re-signing of Brian Giles, trading for Mike Cameron and the position change of Ryan Klesko has improved the outfield quite a bit.

Giles is a better left fielder than Klesko, Cameron a better center fielder than Roberts and Johnson a better right fielder than Giles. Whether we've improved in the field is beyond question.

At the plate, there is some question as to whether we've improved or regressed. Giles is still Giles, so that's more/less constant.

Cameron over his career is better than Roberts, but Dave had a career year at the plate in '05, so we may lose a little there, but at least Cameron can be expected to play a full season.

Johnson would seem to be taking Klesko's place, but with Klesko still in the lineup at first that's not quite fair. You'd probably be better off comparing him to our first basemen last season. Last season, we had more production out of our various first basemen than Johnson, but it was his first year in the Majors and he only had 75 AB's.

Overall, I'm quite pleased with the way things are unfolding.

2006 Salaries

Someone asked about it, so here's a chart with the salaries I'm aware of.

Padres Re-Sign Brian Giles...

2005-11-30T17:58:00.000-08:00

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according to KGTV evening news.

Lance: Leitner is reporting on AM 1090 that an announcement of a three-year pact is imminent.

Just a JPEG...

2005-11-22T13:54:00.000-08:00

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More on Cameron & Nady @ BTB

2005-11-18T12:57:00.000-08:00

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Make sure to check out Scotto's take on the deal at Beyond the Boxscore.

The "Free X. Nady" Movement...

2005-11-16T21:56:00.000-08:00

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...has gotten its wish. In a trade I like quite a bit, Nady has been sent to the Mets in exchange for a guy who can really play centerfield, Mike Cameron.

Interesting commentary on the Padres' thus-far interesting offseason can be found at The Baseball Analysts.

Oddly enough, there's no mention of our signing of Geoff Blum there, nor will there be here.

Update [2005-11-16 21:25:09 by Richard]:

2006 Salaries

Texan Prospects

2005-11-12T14:39:00.000-08:00

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I'll try to get the career stats for the other two up relatively soon.

Gerald Laird

I'm mildly impressed, but there doesn't seem too much to get excited about.

Giving Up Too Soon?

2005-11-11T21:25:00.000-08:00

From an e-mail penned (by me) prior to the 2005 season:

" Years ago [Bill] James wrote that if the Indians were lucky, Thome would be the next Carney Lansford (remember Thome @ the hot corner?). He added that if they were REALLY lucky he'd be the new George Brett. What he actually became was a sustained version of the young Eddie Matthews, if we restrict ourselves to 3B. Or maybe even Schmidt, although if you adjust to league average Jim might not hold up as well... Point being, even those smarter than [Vinay Kumar] & I are doomed to failure when projecting the future SHAPE of a young player. Sean will be good, although right now he should hit 8th in a decent line-up. I'm hoping for Ken Boyer, before he fell off a cliff. If we're lucky, Brett. It's not beyond reason."

Yeah, I actually wrote that.

Castilla won't be better than average in '06. Neither will Randa.

But Burroughs might be. And we're not winning anything with either of the old guys manning the hot corner.

This is a year to find out which young guys can play.

Another Rumor from the Mill

2005-11-10T14:02:00.000-08:00

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The Dallas Morning News among others has reported that the Padres and Rangers may be discussing a trade involving Adam Eaton of the Friars and Gerald Laird, Laynce Nix and Adrian Gonzalez of the Rangers.

To some this will sound like dealing an established Major League pitcher for three no-name minor league suspects. I don't see it that way. First, look at this past year's stats for Eaton:

He's below league average. He's proven to be injury prone. He's past his physical prime. Oh, and he's going to earn about $5M this next season. As for the unproven youngsters of the Texas farm system, here's their stats for '05.

All three mashed at Triple-A Oklahoma (though Nix only for a handful of games). Also, all three are believed to be above average fielders. Gonzalez has even been referred to as a future gold glover by some.

I like the look of the deal as is. Hopefully it can get done.

Lawrence for Castilla

2005-11-07T16:16:00.000-08:00

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I think we can reasonably assume a few things from this trade. They are:

1) The Sean Burroughs experiment is over for better or worse.
2) Brian Lawrence was considered expendable due to either pitching in the farm system or pitching forthcoming in a trade.
3) Vinny Castilla's production relative to salary, in the view of the Padres, is greater than that of anyone available on the free agent market when you take into account the difference in salary between Lawrence and his replacement.

We'll have to wait and see what else the front office does this off-season in order to put this trade into some sort of context.

This past season Castilla produced at a higher level than any of our third basemen did. Brian Lawrence pitched quite a few innings, but was not particularly good. If it really was necessary to replace Burroughs and B-Law is not part of the organization's plans for the future, it makes sense to seek that replacement by moving Lawrence.

What The?!

2005-11-04T10:11:00.000-08:00

The tiny mind of Kevin Towers continues to dazzle. We apparently now reside in a universe in which Vinny Castilla is more valuable than Brian Lawrence.

Both players are under contract through '06, with Lawrence costing a mere $300,000 more.
Lawrence also has a $5.7-million option for '07, with a $550,000 club buyout. In the spirit of the rapidly-approaching holiday season, KT saw fit to sweeten the deal with enough cash to pay the buyout. Because sometimes you have to dig deep to aquire a massive talent such as Castilla.

What this amounts to is Towers' condemnation of his own selection of Sean Burroughs in the draft, as well his signing of Lawrence to his current contract. When you add the public admission that signing Ryan Klesko and Phil Nevin to contract extensions was a mistake, it makes me wonder why the hell this man is allowed to run a major league baseball team.

Please excuse me, as I must go to the bathroom to squeeze lemon juice into my eyes.

Just wundrin'...

2005-11-01T16:18:00.000-08:00

Richard: Click here for a table of park-adjusted Padre batting stats.

With the resignation of Theo Epstein and the inexplicable (this one makes me grin ear-to-ear) firing of Paul DePodesta, two bright young baseball minds are on the market.

The stepping down of Epstein, however, makes me wonder about the future employment of the greatest baseball mind of our time, Bill James.

Will the Red Sox retain his services?

And if a set-up man is worth $3-million in today's market, what might the Epstein-James tandem be worth?

Personally, I'd just hire James as my GM. I suspect his ego wouldn't allow him to refuse the challenge.

Mr. Alderson, are you listening?

Dodgers Take Step Backward

2005-10-29T13:40:00.000-07:00

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Dodgers fire general manager DePodesta

Good. It's always nice to see teams in the division do things to hurt themselves.

A Long Time Coming

2005-10-26T22:35:00.000-07:00

The ChiSox' sweep of the Houston Astros in the 2005 World Series only serves to further convince me that the Chicago Cubs will never again win the World Series.

Since I have no logic or data to support that ridiculous assertion (an assertion I believe, nonetheless), I'll congratulate the White Sox and their long-suffering fans.

I was wrong about your team in spring training, and I was wrong about them during their early enfuego stretch.

I was wrong about the Sox when Cleveland was chasing them from behind, and I was wrong about them when they were brushing aside all comers in the post-season.

And now they're World Champions.

Good for them.

What I wouldn't give to share a similar experience with my fellow Padre fans.

Richard: I don't care for the White Sox. That being said, there is still a silver lining. Cub fans have to be quite unhappy. Good enough for me.

A'sNation Book Club

2005-10-25T22:28:00.000-07:00

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There's a highly interesting post over at Athletics Nation that I recommend taking the time to read. Even most of the comments are good. I think mdl covered that aspect pretty well with his own comment:

As I read Baseball Girl's post, I have to marvel at what an amazing abundance of intelligent and articulate posters we have here at AN.

Then as I read some of the rebuttals in the comments explaining about clutch hitting, I sense some regression to the mean.

Ah well, if AN's population is a hitter's season stats, we're still batting somewhere around .370, and that's damn good.

by mdl on Mon Oct 24, 2005 at 01:31:03 AM PST

Klesko for Finley...

2005-10-25T13:08:00.000-07:00

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Question from Padres.com:

Is there any credence to the rumors that the Padres may take Steve Finley back to finish his career? If Ryan Klesko leaves, we could have a hole in the outfield that Finley would fill nicely. -- Julie J., San Diego

According to Cot's Baseball Contracts, Klesko is due $10.0M in '06 and Finley is due $7.0M. Saving $3.0M would be nice, but what about the difference in production?

Looking at this past year using a method borrowed from Joe Giovannetti:
Klesko, despite pulling down $2.0M more was overpaid by $1.702M less.

Looking at them based only on their numbers from last season (adjusted for all-time):
Klesko was productive. Finley was not. The difference in salary does not make up for the difference in production.

Not Entirely Worthless

2005-10-25T11:14:00.000-07:00

All the cool blogs are doin' it, so we'll follow suit.

It would appear that "Friar Faithful" is worth $6,209.94, at least if this is to be believed.

I'm just sayin' that if anybody wants to make an offer, we're listening.

My blog is worth $6,209.94.
How much is your blog worth?

A Work in Progress...

2005-10-24T22:26:00.000-07:00

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Geoff Young has sparked a bit of a discussion about Xavier Nady with his Review of the Padres' First Base situation. I have a number of opinions on the subject, but feel they are not based on much. I can't allow that to continue, so I'll be adding statistics and commentary on the topic over the next couple of days.

First off, X's Beyond The Boxscore Player Card:
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Only NRAA & NRAA/GP are park or season adjusted in any manner. Also, the NL average of mOPS (2.2*OBP+ISO) is .872. That means that .884 playing half your games in the park with the greatest negative factor is pretty decent.

BA is exactly league average playing in a park that lowers BABIP. His OBP is .006 points below league average. His SLG & ISO are .025 above. Nady's EQA of .269 (which is park and league adjusted) is .009 above the Major League average of .260.

Other stats from The Hardball Times:

In case they're unfamiliar, those are Runs Created, Runs Created per Game, Gross Production Average ((OBP*1.8+SLG)/4) which is ballpark adjusted, Pitches per Plate Appearance, Line Drive Percentage, Batting Average on Balls in Play, Groundball to Flyball ratio, percentage of flyballs that are infield flies and Home Runs per Flyball.

RC is a counting stat and tells us less than RC/G. 4.9 isn't terribly low, but it's behind Giles, Sweeney, Roberts, Klesko & Fick who all play the position(s) Nady does. Nady's GPA is good for 10th on the club, though it is a bit above league average. He was 25th among Padres in P/PA which is just ugly. His LD% is lower than that of Burroughs (by 0.4). The BA/BIP is also on the low side. He was around the middle in G/F and IF/F. His HR/F was encouraging, though as it ranked behind only Ben Johnson, Jesse Garcia & Miguel Olivo who had fewer PA by a wide margin. THT's PrOPS stat also seemed to like Nady. PrOPS is based on "batted ball types, walk rate, HBP rate, strikeout rate, home run rate, speed scores, and home park of the player."

Potential Free Agent Center Fielders

2005-10-22T01:19:00.000-07:00

Some more Fielding stats:

I tried to keep the list to only players who played a reasonable number of games in Center this year, but let slide those who had a Rate in line with their career average.

Lance: Damn... these guys are all hopeless with the bat, or unable to really play CF, or throw like a girl (see Damon, Johnny). Sigh....

If the Padres plan to look to the free agent market for a Center Fielder, I hope they try to sign Lofton.

Padre News from ESPN.com

2005-10-14T23:58:00.000-07:00

It's important to remember when reviewing the Padres' 2005 season...

"When a team improves sharply one season they will almost always decline in the next."

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From ESPN:

San Diego Padres: First base coach Davey Lopes and third base coach Rob Picciolo won't be back next season. The Padres will not renew the contracts of Lopes, Picciolo and advance scout Jeff Gardner.

Change is good, but this isn't terribly interesting.

Next GM?

From the Boston Globe:

David Forst, the former captain of the Harvard baseball team and current assistant GM with the Oakland A's, is said to be in line to become Sandy Alderson's first choice in San Diego if Kevin Towers leaves and goes to Arizona, a widely reported rumor.

We could certainly do worse.

Off-Season Noise

2005-10-12T15:28:00.000-07:00

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Riverside Press Enterprise: "The biggest question is what the Padres intend to do with Hoffman. The closer is an icon in San Diego and still has the stuff to get the job done in the ninth. He is closing in on the all-time save mark, but he wants to be paid like the Yankees' Mariano Rivera, which means $10 million."

Hoffman was worth roughly three million dollars this past season and there's no reason to believe he's going to be three times more valuable next year.

Next Year's Roster

Just some quick lists...

Arbitration Eligible Players (5): Adam Eaton, Dave Roberts, Sean Burroughs, Miguel Olivo, David Ross.

Adam Eaton will probably win more in arbitration than he's worth. The same can likely be said of Dave Roberts. Burroughs and Olivo shouldn't be able to get much and are worth keeping. David Ross is without worth.

Free Agent Players (12): Brian Giles, Ramon Hernandez, Trevor Hoffman, Joe Randa, Pedro Astacio, Chris Hammond, Rudy Seanez, Mark Sweeney, Robert Fick, Damian jackson, Eric Young ($850,000 Team Option), Manny Alexander.

Giles is easily the most important player to re-sign. If you need that explained to you, go away. Others worth keeping around are Hernandez, Hoffman, Astacio, Seanez, Sweeney, Fick, Jackson, Young. Hernandez and Hoffman will likely demand more than they're worth, so I favor letting them walk. The rest shouldn't be able to get much more than they did this season and the club ought to attempt to retain their services.

Players Signed through (at least) 2006 with known (by me) salaries (7): Ryan Klesko, Mark Loretta, Jake Peavy, Scott Linebrink, Chan Ho Park, Woody Williams ($500,000 buyout), Brian Lawrence.

Woody Williams could get paid $7,030,000 according to the Union Tribune. I'd rather he only get the $500,000. Peavy and Linebrink are both bargains. Chan Ho Park has to be the highest paid low leverage middle relief pitcher in the Majors.

Player	Salary	Percentage
Ryan Klesko	10,500,000	16.9
Chan Ho Park	10,000,000	16.1
Brian Lawrence	4,050,000	6.5
Mark Loretta	3,250,000	5.2
Jake Peavy	2,500,000	4
Scott Linebrink	1,365,000	2.2
Eric Young	850,000	1.4
Woody Williams	500,000	0.8

Ed Graney Makes Bochy Look Stupid

2005-10-09T12:32:00.000-07:00

Unfortunately for Graney, that's a pretty big step up for Boch. His article can be found here.

Break up the Padres.

I fear he's peaked rather early.

No. Really. Please.

In Graney's mind, that's clever.

[snip some idiocy] It sounded nice for a few days, all that feel-good banter about the record not mattering and clean slates and how strange things sometimes occur in a short series. Nice and utterly ridiculous.

I agree. Having the odds stacked against you 3:2 like the Padres did is impossible to overcome.

[snip some more idiocy] [Kevin Towers] no longer must spend inning after inning praying for a Padres bat to mistakenly run into a pitch or closing his eyes when any fly ball ventures into left field.

The Padres were fifth of 16 in EQA in the NL. Also, Klesko had a Rate of 99, which is within one run over 100 games of average. If Graney wanted to pick on fielder, he probably should have started with Dave Roberts who happened to be awful in the field this year.

[snip some idiocy, a quote from KT, and a little more idiocy]It's about time base runners around here didn't resemble your parents during the church picnic's three-legged race. It's about time there are better athletes in the home team's outfield than the beer line. It's about time the offense does something more productive than walk.

I'll agree with Graney's general opinion with regard to the poor base-running. Some of that is the fault of the coaching staff as well as the players. Graney is correct that the team needs better outfielders (see Roberts, Dave). Something more productive than walk... What is it with the idiots in this town and their disgust with drawing walks? Any time you didn't make an out, you succeeded. Somebody explain how baseball works to Graney.

[snip a couple useless lines]There are three untouchable players on the roster – pitchers Jake Peavy and Scott Linebrink and shortstop Khalil Greene. After that, no one should be considering refinancing the mortgage.

I wouldn't want to get rid of them either, but the only one I would classify untouchable is Peavy. Linebrink has been outstanding, but if the right deal came along.... Khalil is still a below average player and despite his upside, he shouldn't be considered untouchable.

[snip some more useless crap, a couple quotes from Towers and Graney's predictions on who will be re-signed]Do the Padres take the $8 million or $9 million they would offer Giles and instead split it among a few players such as Minnesota's Jacque Jones and Florida's Juan Encarnacion? Do they again try to trade for Mike Cameron of the Mets or perhaps Juan Pierre of the Marlins?

It's worth noting that Jones and Encarnacion together aren't going to replace the production of Giles by himself. Look, here's a table:

Player	OBA	G	EQA	Rate2	OUT	EQRAA	NRAA	NRAA/G	POS
Brian Giles	0.44	158	0.326	99	380	49.8	30.52	0.305	RF
Jacque Jones	0.332	142	0.27	111	408	6.96	15.9	0.159	RF
Ryan Klesko	0.369	137	0.281	100	372	13.74	10.03	0.1	LF
Mike Cameron	0.341	76	0.285	94	215	9.56	6.58	0.066	RF
Juan Encarnacion	0.358	141	0.28	95	389	13.65	4.68	0.047	RF
Dave Roberts	0.374	115	0.284	88	310	13.2	-0.52	-0.005	CF
Juan Pierre	0.335	162	0.257	97	463	-2.28	-4.41	-0.044	CF

It'd be nice to have Jacque Jones in right, Giles in left and somebody not in that table in center.

Do they convince a team such as the Angels that Ryan Klesko could actually be productive as a designated hitter and then convince Klesko to take his pleasant demeanor, diminishing skills, no-trade clause and $10 million salary up the freeway in exchange for Steve Finley?

Yeah, that'd be a hell of a deal. Good thinking, Graney.

There is so much to do, so much to fix. Eighth among National League teams in average with runners in scoring position. Sixth in on-base percentage. Twelfth in batting average. Thirteenth in runs and home runs. Fifteenth in slugging percentage.

Has this guy never heard of negative park factors and small sample sizes, or is he just too stupid to understand the concepts?

[snip the rest of his crappy article]

Where does the UT find a guy like Graney? I'm guessing under a bridge.

Pettis > Pierre

2005-10-08T17:44:00.000-07:00

Lance Richardson said...
Juan Pierre is Gary Pettis, without the Gold Glove defense.
Why don't we just get it over with, and coax Mickey Rivers outta retirement?!?

Richard B. Wade said...
From the age of 25 to that of 27, Pettis was 37.20 Net Runs Above Average better than Pierre.

Lance Richardson said...
Pettis was BETTER than Pierre!?!?
I guess I should heve used a different comp. Maybe Shawn Abner?

Richard B. Wade said...
From the age of 22 to that of 26, Abner was roughly one net run above average per 100 games worse than Pierre, but because he played less, his total NRAA was higher over that period.

Noooooooooooo!!!!!!!!!

2005-10-04T22:15:00.000-07:00

From David Pinto's "Baseball Musings:"

"This is very bad news for the Padres playoff hopes. Jake Peavy broke two ribs during today's game.
Initial X-rays were negative, but the Padres sent Peavy to Barnes Jewish Hospital in St. Louis for an MRI, which revealed the fractured rib. A team spokesman said Peavy might have also broken his ninth rib, and that additional tests were being done.
Padres manager Bruce Bochy said the team didn't know when Peavy suffered the injury.
He could break them twisting on a play, or even coughing. Even if the Padres manage to get by St. Louis, I don't give them much chance of going past that without their ace.
Update: The Fox pre-game show just reported that Peavy broke his rib in the Padres celebration after they clinched. Those player piles are funny until someone loses the opening game of the LDS. :-)"

Nothing like a dog-pile celebration inspired by an 82-80 season. Next to Katrina and Rita, this is the worst thing to happen this fall. I think I'll go find a brick wall to bang my head on.

Padres Lose Game 1 & Peavy

2005-10-04T19:28:00.000-07:00

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The Padre defense handed the St. Louis Cardinals roughly three extra runs today. Compare that to the less than half a run the Cardinals handed back. The Padres have suffered from lousy fielding all year. Part of the problem is that our better fielders are either perceived as less effective hitters and/or are less effective hitters. Sweeney, Loretta, Randa, Klesko and Roberts are for the most part better hitters than their would-be replacements, but have not fared as well in the field. There isn't any clear cut solution and that may actually be more frustrating than if there were.

Juan Pierre?

I caught the Werndl Wire this afternoon and he was mentioning that some team or another is talking to the Marlins about Juan Pierre. He went on to say that the Padres should be talking to the Marlins about Juan Pierre. Maybe someone should point out that Juan Pierre isn't very good. He's a below average player. A quick look at his career NRAA numbers:

Year	OUT	EQA	Games	EQRAA	Rate	NRAA	NRAA/G	NRAA/162	NRAA/GP
2000	149	0.208	51	-10.98	101	-20.53	-0.205	-33.26	-10.47
2001	447	0.257	156	-2.2	99	-2.41	-0.024	-3.91	-3.76
2002	442	0.234	152	-17.64	103	-8.61	-0.086	-13.94	-13.08
2003	502	0.272	162	10.33	91	-2.62	-0.026	-4.25	-4.25
2004	498	0.276	162	13.82	93	1.53	0.015	2.48	2.48
2005	492	0.256	162	-3.22	97	-4.99	-0.05	-8.08	-8.08
Career	2530	0.258	845	-8.34	97	-3.99	-0.04	-6.46	-33.69

If all the negative numbers (average is exactly zero) aren't good enough, take into account that not even being .140 runs below average per game in the field was enough to tip the scales in Pierre's favor when comparing him to Dave Roberts this year. That's how lousy Pierre is when it comes to producing offensively. Juan Pierre is 27, has played six seasons and has only managed to crack the "average barrier" one time. What the hell do we need that for?

2005 NL West Champs

2005-09-29T10:14:00.000-07:00

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It was never really in doubt, but it's still nice to have officially clinched. If nothing else, I probably won't have to read any more Padre fans saying things like this:

you think trading nevin for park is going to take the padres to the playoffs this year?

I certainly dont, in fact I feel this trade has sealed a non playoff spot for this team this year.

Posted by hank at July 30, 2005 09:27 PM

Ramon's Slam Reduces Magic Number to 2

2005-09-28T15:56:00.000-07:00

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The positives from last night's game have no doubt been covered to death. There are, however, a couple of negatives. Adam Eaton looked much like he has for the majority of the season. People are now calling for Hernandez to be re-signed.

I'll have more on both by tomorrow.

Non-Baseball Related

Kelly McBride, a teacher of ethics at the Poynter Institute, said:

You get so hung up as a reporter on what the big picture is that you use generalizations that become untrue.

That's a tremendous statement. Let's see if I understand... Reporters are easily overwhelmed by news and are inclined to make things up that only become untrue later. How did she get hired?

Some Thoughts

2005-09-27T15:00:00.000-07:00

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Last night's loss was utter crap.
Jake had thrown a lot of pitches, but I was upset when he was removed. We're talking over a week before his next start if we had won last night.
Trevor Hoffman should not be our pitcher of choice in a high leverage situation.
Also worth pointing out is that Dave Roberts would not have had a better shot at catching the ball Giles dropped. Roberts has been atrocious in the field. He's been pretty good at the plate, but if this were the AL, you'd have to consider using him at DH because he's been just that good defensively.
Back to Trevor not being our high leverage reliever: he's not our best reliever and that should be a good enough reason. Our best pitchers (by DERA) are (in order) Linebrink, Hensley, Seanez, Peavy, Astacio, Breslow, Hoffman, Hammond and Otsuka (list ends because those are our "above team average pitchers").
Yes, I really would have preferred seeing Hensley in the ninth over Hoffman.

Future Friar Statistical Standouts

2005-09-22T17:54:00.000-07:00

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Future Friar Statistical Standouts

That Didn't Go So Well

2005-09-20T21:28:00.000-07:00

After tonight's 20-1 drubbing at the hands of the Rockies, a bit of perspective is required.

Granted, this debacle ensures that our Padres will finish with a sub-.500 Pythagorean record. It does little to impact the real-life standings, however.

The standings that determine who keeps playing in October.

Enjoy the team's continued march toward the fourth NL West title in franchise history.

And be thankful that there will be no postseason games at Coors Field.

Magic Number Dwindling...

2005-09-10T16:09:00.000-07:00

With the Giants' defeat at the hands of the Cubs, our Padres' magic number has shriveled to a mere 15.

Regardless of assertions that the NL West is "the worst division ever," we are surging toward only the fifth postseason appearance in franchise history. And I'm ecstatic about that.

I've suffered the Enzo Hernandez's, Billy Almon's, and the the managerial cluelessness of John MacNamera. I've seen the team sign the likes of John Curtis and Rick Wise to lucrative free agent pacts in the futile hope that a difference might be made.

After all that, and then some, I'm grateful to be above .500, and forever grateful to have our sights set on a division crown.

I'm also grateful that many of my New Orleans friends will apparently return home soon with their houses largely intact. One particularly special pal, Linnzi Zaorski, has likely lost everything, but she is now headed to SoCal to resume her budding music career. I look forward to greeting her at my doorstep.

Please continue to help the victims of Katrina as much as you're able, and continue to enjoy the Padres' fifth(Ed. note: Of course the Padres have been to the postseason a mere three times, making this their FOURTH trip to the playoffs. I am stupid.) trip to the playoffs.

If memories of the '84 and '98 postseasons serve, the playoffs can be full of joyous surprises.

20 / 15

2005-09-01T14:11:00.000-07:00

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I just got laser eye surgery done last night and I'm now glasses-free. Woo!

I'm Still Here

2005-08-30T18:50:00.000-07:00

Despite a not-so-subtle prodding from Richard, I have been pretty scarce around here.

Same as our readers.

One excuse is the devastation of hurricane Katrina. The flooding and catastrophic damage to my favorite place in the world, New Orleans, has me concerned. I have many friends in that town; my wife and I try to visit at least every three months. We even got married there. Think some good thoughts for the entire region, if I may ask.

I am not, however, concerned about the Padres' playoff hopes. They are absolutely going to win the NL West. I like being in first place with a mediocre record much better than being in third place with a good record. Just get to the postseason, and I'll take my chances.

Isn't it nice to see that Xavier Nady has finally seen the evils of adultery, and broken it off with Bruce Bochy's wife?

I'll end the most incohesive, pointless post in the history of blogdom by pointing out that the inimitable Padre Mike has a blog, of which I was unaware until about 15 minutes ago. Check it out at : http://padretalk.blogspot.com/

RedBeans&Ricely,
Lance

Giles Down, Johnson Up

2005-08-29T10:56:00.000-07:00

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Gilly is apparently on the shelf for the next couple of days thanks to a bone bruise suffered in a collision with Dave Roberts on Sunday. Bochy commented on the radio this morning that Ben Johnson would likely take his place in right field. That news coupled with this article has made me a happy Padre fan. I have been impressed by Johnson for a while and thankfully his batting average caught up to his other numbers this year and it looks like he'll get a chance in the show. I'll probably take a closer look at what Johnson has done at Future Friars later.

There Was No Game Today

2005-08-25T22:11:00.000-07:00

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And so I was forced to blog at BtB, read it here.

Peavy Dominates Astros

2005-08-24T16:13:00.000-07:00

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Last night, Houston hitters combined to bat .125/.176/.188 against Jake. Using the simple RC formula (OBA*TB), that's 1.06 Runs Created. Peavy was able to maintain the shutout, though, and in doing so defeated his idol, Roger Clemens, who also threw a complete game.

I have more to say, but no time to say it. Hopefully Lance can post something...

Perplexed

2005-08-22T07:57:00.000-07:00

Aaron Gleeman's latest column at The Hardball Times is entitled "The Winning Machine."

And yet it is not about Dave Roberts. How can this be???

Records vs. NL Playoff Teams

2005-08-21T11:22:00.000-07:00

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If the season were to end today, the Atlanta Braves, Philadelphia Phillies, San Diego Padres and St. Louis Cardinals would be going to the playoffs. Only four teams have a combined record of .500 or better against those teams. They are the Phillies, the Dodgers, the Mets and the Padres. If you remove the Phillies from the equation (since they only have a half game lead in the Wild Card), there are still only four teams with .500 or better records against the division leaders. They are the Padres, Phillies, Dodgers and Cubs.

The Padres are a combined 9-3 against the Braves and Cardinals. Only one other team can claim a winning record against the Braves and Cardinals this season.

Basically, you have to like the Padres' chances in the playoffs because they have beaten these teams when no one else has.

Some Braves players have been quoted saying they'd rather play the Padres in the first round. Funny. I was hoping for that, too.

NL West Race (Graph)

2005-08-19T15:03:00.000-07:00

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The NL West

2005-08-16T12:57:00.000-07:00

Another stupid Padre fan...

In response to my assertion that RBI's are highly lineup dependent:

Maybe only to you stat geeks who made up a bunch of useless, crap stats to make you sound like you know wha you're talking about.

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At this point, 83 wins should be enough to win the division. Currently, all 5 teams mathematically have a shot at that number. The table below shows the record each team would need to maintain to capture the NL West crown:

Team	W	L	W%
San Diego	25	20	0.556
Arizona	27	16	0.628
Los Angeles	30	15	0.667
San Francisco	32	13	0.711
Colorado	38	5	0.884

The odds of any team in the NL West playing .600 ball over the remaing 40+ games aren't good. If the Padres can manage to not get swept by the Diamondbacks and Dodgers, they shouldn't have a problem winning the division.

I've actually heard people on the local radio stations say they would rather lose the division than win it with a sub-.500 record. [hyperbole]That's the stupidest thing I've ever heard.[/hyperbole] What are those people thinking? Were the 2004 Red Sox, 2003 Marlins, and 2002 Angels so ashamed of making the playoffs despite not winning their division that they didn't show up? Did the 2000 Yankees say that an 87-win team didn't deserve to be in the playoffs and phone it in? Your regular season record has nothing to do with how you do in the playoffs. The 1998 Yankees are the only 100+ win team to win the Series since they added the Wild Card and they're also the only team to rank as high as second in regular season wins the year they won it. In 2000, the Yankees were 9th in regular season wins.

The playoffs are a crapshoot and if the Padres can make it, they have as good a shot of winning it as just about anyone else.

Link Added!

2005-08-15T22:40:00.000-07:00

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Lance suggested that Fire Joe Morgan be added. I agreed and so it has been. The guys there are hilarious. Example one liner:

It's all so hip and ironic and kitschy and cute that I want to punch him in the face.

You have to love that. No, you really have to.

Greene Out Two to Three Weeks

2005-08-15T10:18:00.000-07:00

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NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!

EQA Run Estimates

The following chart lists teams by the percentage difference between their EQA estimated run totals and actual run totals. I'm not sure if you should expect teams to approach zero over a long period of time, or if it is more to do with management or what. Make of it what you will:

SLN	0.071
OAK	0.045
CHA	0.038
SEA	0.038
ANA	0.037
SFN	0.034
KCA	0.030
NYN	0.024
TOR	0.018
PIT	0.017
LAN	0.016
CIN	0.016
COL	0.008
ATL	0.006
BOS	0.000
HOU	0.000
TEX	-0.002
FLO	-0.009
PHI	-0.011
MIL	-0.011
MIN	-0.012
DET	-0.015
SDN	-0.020
NYA	-0.026
WAS	-0.027
TBA	-0.029
CLE	-0.041
CHN	-0.046
ARI	-0.073
BAL	-0.074

Stupid Padre Fans

2005-08-14T19:47:00.000-07:00

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I recently read the following on a Padres Web Forum:

So, to sum up that deal with Oakland in 2004 when the Padres got Hernandez and Terrence Long: The padres get a high draft pick and Paul Quantrill for Mark Kotsay (who had a bad back at the time). Did the Padres give up something other than Kotsay for both Long and Hernandez? Kotsay was having a good year in Oakland until his back starting hurting again.

What kind of idiot logic is that? It's similar to suggesting that a draft pick was wasted because the player played for the team, but when he retired we were left with nothing. This sort of logic, in which all positives related to a transaction are ignored in order to suggest that the aforementioned transaction is a failure, is rampant among Padre fans and it annoys me to no end.

Another gem:

However, other then homeruns, his numbers are very similar. He is still batting in the .290-.300 range, an on-base pct. well over .400, and alot of doubles and triples. Even has a good glove and stolen base pct. (10 last year). Cannot ask for much more.

And RBI's? Oh thats right, Klesko is driving in all those runs before Giles gets up.

The bold text was a response to the regular text above it. Rather than get into that again, I think I'll just quote from the BP Basics:

So, highly context-dependent counting stats like RBI and runs scored can be inflated or deflated by a panoply of factors that have nothing to do with that hitter's true abilities. One of the prevailing missions of sabermetrics is to evaluate the player in a vacuum: What's he doing independently of his teammates and environment? Using only RBI or runs scored to judge a player or to frame an argument at the tavern is a fool's errand.

Why is that so damned difficult to understand?

This one is even better

I have no idea why the Padres traded Nevin when they likely did not get any salary relief and certainly didnt improve the team this year and beyond.

I know Nevin is producing a little less then normal, but when the team isnt scoring and you dont have a replacement who is likely to do better, then why do you trade him if you are not going to improve offensively?

Nevin also wants to be in San Diego and has a passion for the game that brings his teammates together. I dont care if he bitches about the park being too big and gets in Towers face. I think that fire is something the Padres are lacking and too much complacency contributes to serious losing streaks like the one the Padres are on now.

If you are trading him to fill a need or to get better or to dump a salary, then I wouldnt complain as much, but we traded him for Chan Ho Park, who is a dog with a contract as big as Nevins. While our pitching isnt very good, I dont think Park is the answer. Trading Nevin did not dump a salary, it just exchanged one and we are not better because of it.

I am at a loss over this trade and it just does not make sense in any way I look at it. The only explanation I can think of is that maybe they did it because management has come to the realization that Tim Stauffer absolutely sucks.

Stauffer and Matt Bush have to be the worst back to back top 5 draft picks by a team in the history of baseball.

The bolded sentences are that way because they are my favorites. To suggest that the Padres had no replacements for Nevin that were any better is so preposterous that you can't even be annoyed by it. It's just too damn funny. The Tim Stauffer comments, on the other hand, are impossibly stupid and really do get to me.

I Hate the Phillies

2005-08-13T17:13:00.000-07:00

The Double Standard

Normally, ESPN is terrible, but I found Jayson Stark's article, The Double Standard, rather interesting. It's a question that has probably crossed the minds of most baseball fans, but this is the first I've seen anyone write about it. Why don't we care when pitchers cheat, but are incensed when hitters do? Stark claims that it's due to worshipping the home run. I don't have a better answer, so I guess I'll work on that assumption. The other original point Stark made was that while people talk of placing asterisks on individual records, not one person ever suggests doing the same to wins and losses. After all, Barry Bonds was a major reason for the Giants making the World Series. Perhaps they should take down their NL Champions banner.

Then again, I don't think steroids have anywhere near the effect people claim they have on performance, so I don't particularly care. I just thought Stark's point of view was interesting.

Link Added

Noticed another regularly updated Padre blog: Josh's Baseball Blog.

Padres Lose By One, Nady Watches From Bench

2005-08-12T22:13:00.000-07:00

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Going into today's game, the Padres' five best hitters (statistically speaking, of course) were Mark Sweeney, Brian Giles, Robert Fick, Ryan Klesko and Xavier Nady. Neither Fick nor Nady started. Fick, you can understand. He's a catcher, after all, and needs the occasional day off. Nady, on the other hand, should have started. Failing that, he should have gotten a chance to hit. After Fick, he was by far the best hitter available off the bench. Also, against left-handed pitchers, he is the best on the team, period.

It's one thing to field the best team you can and lose. It's another thing entirely to refuse to give one of your best players any playing time and to lose by a margin that could have been made up by their presence. I'm sick of it.

(Lance: Until now I've avoided the Bochy-bashing. That ends today. His people-handling skills and outsized noggin aside, I can't think of any positives he brings to the team.

He makes pitching changes based entirely pre-determined formula. I am suspicious of managers who run teams in this manner, as it is evidence of a fear of making actual in-game decisions.

I won't even get into his handling of Nady. There's nothing I could write on that topic that hasn't appeared on every Padre blog on the internet.

It may be time to consider a new position within the organization for Bruce Bochy.

Like broadcaster.)

Brian Lawrence: Usually Pretty Good... Apparently

2005-08-11T00:25:00.000-07:00

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Every time Brian Lawrence takes the mound only to find that he doesn't have any of his pitches working, I want to be annoyed. The problem? It's unwarranted. B-Law has been quite good this year. Just look at his median start:

6.7 IP, 7 H, 3 R, 3 K, 2 BB, 0 HR

That's a "quality start." It's also good for the following rate stats:

RA: 4.03
K/BB: 1.50
K/PA: .111
K/9: 4.03
BB/9: 2.69
HR/9: 0.00

Those are solid if unspectacular numbers. They're better than league average outside the strikeouts. And look at that same line independent of defense:

6.3 IP, 6.5 H, 2.4 ER, 3.0 K, 2.2 BB, 0.0 HR

About one out less, but also more than half a run less. The corresponding rate stats? Here:

ERA: 3.43
K/BB: 1.36
K/PA: .111
K/9: 4.29
BB/9: 3.14
HR/9: 0.00

A 3.43 ERA is substantially lower than league average.

It's damn frustrating to watch when he's not on though, isn't it?

Kris Benson? Are you kidding me? Kris Benson!

Kris Benson?!

Battle of Former Dodger Hurlers

2005-08-10T18:59:00.000-07:00

I was at the game Tuesday night, prepared for a disappointing evening. Instead, the Padres continued their recent dominance by laying the wood to Pedro Martinez.

The pitching matchup was daunting. Martinez has won three Cy Young Awards. Padre starting pitcher Chan Ho Park plays the same position as Cy Young.

Alas, Chan Ho last nite ascended to the pantheon of mighty Asian warriors: Ghengis Khan, Bruce Lee, Jackie Chan, and, now, Chan Ho Park.

Thoughts on the game:

David Wright's bare-handed grab was as fun to watch as any play I've seen since minor leaguer Rodney McCray ran through an outfield wall to make a catch. Unlike most players, Wright realized he was turned around on the ball early, and seemed to know that he wasn't going to be able to glove it. His acceleration to the ball, nonetheless, was surprising, and he snatched it with his right hand as if he'd planned it that way. I was about 80 feet from him at the time, and I think he did plan it that way. Definitely worthy of the standing O given by the Padre crowd.

The Mets started Jose Offerman at first base. I am not making this up. Ed Kranepool pinch-hit for him in the top of the seventh.

Xavier Nady is still banging Bochy's wife. Duh.

New York teams are way stupid.
Last off-season, the Yankees decided to replace the solid second base play of Miguel Cairo with Tony "Why-is-this-man-in-the-major-leagues?" Womack. Womack is earning his millions on the bench, watching young Robinson Cano (a Yank property all along) play far better than Tony in his prime.
The ugly stepsister..., er, the Mets, have realized that Kaz Matsui was, in fact, Japan's retaliation for Hiroshima. He has been supplanted, quite competently, by (you guessed it) Miguel Cairo.

Why does a team with Mike Cameron in CF sign Carlos Beltran? Anyone who had ever seen Cameron play CF would think it silly to shell out a small nation's GNP to Beltran, and slide Cameron to RF. Granted, Cameron had a rough night in RF last night, but Petco has a tough RF, and I'll stick to my guns in saying that, defensively, Beltran can't carry Cameron's jock. I'm not sure he's much better offensively, either.
Maybe the Met front office had never actually seen Cameron play.

And one more thing:
LET'S GO, CHAN HO!!!!

Park v. Martinez Reminiscent of May v. Santana

2005-08-09T22:32:00.000-07:00

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Chan Ho Park looked outstanding in his first career start at PetCo Park. Pedro Martinez? Not so much. Here's Chan Ho's fantastic line:

5.7 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 8 K, 0 HR (3.16 ERA)

And his even more fantastic defense independent line:

8.30 IP, 6.68 H, 1.65 ER, 1.23 BB, 7.94 K, 0.00 HR (1.79 ERA)

I'm aware that it's only one start, but does anyone still think the Nevin trade was a bad one?

How about that offfense?

Tonight the Padres batted a collective .395/.410/.737. Wow.

Top Five National League Offenses

2005-08-08T13:50:00.000-07:00

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#	Team	Park Factor	Outs	EqA	EqR
1	Florida	934	2670	.273	519.6
2	Cincinnati	1011	2772	.272	533.5
3	San Diego	912	2791	.268	516.9
4	St. Louis	1003	2747	.266	499.6
5	Chicago	1003	2775	.264	496.4

Raise your hand if you thought San Diego was in the top five. Okay, now hit yourself because you're lying.

Lance: I have for two seasons thought that the Padre offense was as under-rated as any in baseball.

In a controlled atmosphere (re: identical parks, against identical pitching staffs and defenses), I would expect the Friars to finish among the league's top five run-scoring teams.

I am not so delusional as to think that our beloved home team would outscore the Cards under similar circumstances. And what is a productive offense, but one that produces runs?

If you wish to state for our reader, Richard, that the Padres have a more effective offense than the Cardinals, by all means do so. But I'll think you're nuts, and so will our reader.

Phil Nevin isn't Done?

2005-08-07T18:41:00.000-07:00

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hank commented at San Diego Spotlight:

[T]he baltimore failed trade(and the leaking of the trade to the press prior to being confirmed) essentially mandated trading Nevin. Nevin is NOT an aging slugger that has lost his skills and I wish folks would quit saying that. Towers wanted a pitcher and thought that Ponson might do the job. If he had talked to Nevin before it leaked, this trade might never have been announced or would have been reported as simply “discussion". Once it became public and Nevin would not waive his no trade power, Towers was forced to trade Nevin anyway he could to put the distraction to rest. Just my opinion.

(emphasis added)

I could not disagree more. Phil Nevin is almost certainly an average to below average hitter (pitcher's stats included). He is definitely a below average to well below average hitting first baseman and while some may disagree, he is also a below average defensive first baseman.

At the age of 30, Phil Nevin peaked with a Davenport Translated ISO (used to account for the move to PetCo) of .285. The next year was marred by injury. The next year, at 32, Phil posted an ISO of .217 and followed it up with a .209 in '04. This season, Phil has completely collapsed with an ISO of .163. That's his lowest since his injury plagued campaign of 2003 and if you omit that, his worst performance since 1998.

As with his ISO, Nevin's AB/HR rate also peaked in 2000. This year, though, his AB/HR is even worse than 2001 and is actually his worst since his rookie year.

PECOTA gave Phil a Collapse Rate of 35.5% and sadly it appears to have been generous.

Phil Nevin was very good for part of his career as a Padre. In 2001 (his best year as a professional), he was one of the top 20 hitters in baseball and among the top 3 hitting third baseman. He also amassed a 10.1 WARP3, which is simply fantastic (an MVP caliber number). However, he is no longer among the top 20 hitters in the game and he is no longer playing an above average third base. Nevin is, for lack of a better word, done.

Every Fifth Day

2005-08-07T15:07:00.000-07:00

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Jake Peavy was excellent again. He threw more pitches than I like to see, but it's hard to pull him when he's as dominant as he was. As long as he avoids injury, I'll be happy. Anyway, the line for today's game:

9.0 IP, 5 H, 2 BB, 10 K, 0 HR (0.00 ERA)

And the defense independent line:

8.24 IP, 5.73 H, 2.23 BB, 9.93 K, 0.00 HR (1.99 ERA)

I guess he was mildly lucky, but we'll take it.

Edit: Also, this game brought Jake up to an absolutely stupid .299 K/PA.

Free Xavier Nady

Nady hit an absolute bomb to dead center today. Play him every day! He plays five positions. He hits lefties better than any of the five guys at those positions and hits righties better than three of them. There's room.

Most Productive Outfielder in 2005

2005-08-03T21:03:00.000-07:00

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I assert that the most productive outfielder in 2005 has been Brian Giles. hank, a frequent Ducksnorts commenter, asserts that Andruw Jones, Vladimir Guerrero, Carlos Beltran, Manny Ramirez, Carlos Lee, Adam Dunn and Ken Griffey Jr. have all been better. I intend to determine who is correct. Obviously, I am biased, but I will do my best to remove that bias. I imagine our three readers will point out any errors I make. I encourage that.

We will begin by determining what statistics to use. Rather than limit the discussion to one stat, we will look at several and try to draw conclusions from them. Win Shares (WS), Wins Above Replacement Player (WARP) and Net Runs Above Average (NRAA) are all designed to capture a player's entire value. Value Over Replacement Player (VORP), Equivalent Average (EQA), and the traditional batting line of Batting Average (BA), On-Base Percentage (OBP) and Slugging Percentage (SLG) all track only offense, but we will also look at those.

NRAA and BA/OBP/SLG will both use Davenport Translations in order to account for park factors.

Player	WS	WARP	NRAA
Giles	22	6.5	30.1
Jones	16	6.3	38.1
Guerrero	13	4.4	21.8
Beltran	16	3.4	39.8
Ramirez	19	4.4	-0.5
Lee	18	3.9	39.1
Dunn	22	5.2	21.8
Griffey	17	4.5	31.8

Win Shares sees Giles and Dunn as equals and clearly ahead of the pack. WARP calls it cleanly for Giles running just ahead of Andruw Jones and well ahead of the rest of our sample. NRAA, on the other hand, prefers Manny Ramirez and Vladimir Guerrero. Win Shares and WARP are both essentially counting stats meaning that playing time matters. NRAA, however, is a rate stat and accounts for the part of the difference.

What can we conclude from this (here's where it gets subjective)? WS and WARP both have Giles in first or tied for first. Thus, both would seem to back up my initial assertion and contradict hank's. NRAA, though, leaves Giles in fourth behind Dunn, Ramirez and Guerrero, which would seem to contradict my assertion and although it backs part of hank's assertion, four of the seven players he claimed were better than Giles still fall behind him in the stat that favors him the least of the three.

Player	VORP	EQA	BA/OBP/SLG
Ramirez	36.7	0.319	.275/.383/.603
Guerrero	37.4	0.321	.323/.385/.602
Dunn	44.8	0.318	.250/.386/.597
Giles	40.8	0.328	.303/.442/.523
Griffey	40.4	0.300	.280/.363/.542
Jones	43.0	0.301	.268/.355/.590
Lee	34.3	0.288	.267/.336/.532
Beltran	14.6	0.259	.263/.316/.437

VORP prefers both Dunn and Jones to Giles by a decent amount. Giles ranks #1 in EQA by a not insubstantial distance. Batting Average, the least valuable of the stats mentioned in this article gives the top slot to Guerrero followed by Giles as the only other ".300-hitter." On-Base Percentage, widely considered and statistically proven, the most valuable of the three traditional rate stats has Brian Giles with an absolutely massive lead over the pack. Slugging Percentage gives the crown to Ramirez, though Guerrero is only .001 behind with Dunn and Jones also very close.

VORP clearly shows Dunn to be the best. EQA does the same for Giles. And, although some may disagree, BA/OBP/SLG also favors Gilly. On-Base Percentage has been considered anywhere from two to three times more valuable than slugging percentage and at the low estimate, Giles blows the rest of the group away.

I think we've managed to show that by most ways of measuring productivity, Brian Giles is the most productive outfielder. However, one could reasonably make a case for Adam Dunn and to a lesser degree Vlad Guerrero or Manny Ramirez. That being said, one cannot present a stronger case than exists for Brian Giles.

I'd love to hear any differing opinions or even from those who agree. Thanks.

Lance says to hell with objective statistical analysis, use your eyes:

(Lance: I never said any such thing. I have been a SABR member and a devotee of objective statistical analysis since Richard was a zygote. Part of evaluating a player's value ought to involve seeing him play, however.)

I know, I know. It's not like I just left it at that. I included exactly what you said.

Giles' offense is likely NOT superior. The value of a HR, especially in a mediocre offense, cannot be overstated. A player who has just homered CANNOT BE LEFT ON BASE. You underestimate the impact of homers on actual runs scored. A home run is not a potential component of a run, IT IS A RUN, and is not dependant upon the contributions of others.

And the difference between Giles' and Jones' defensive contributions are so far beyond what your carefully-chosen-statistic illustrates, it's comical.

The context of their different position, ballpark, and pitching staffs played behind is simply not adequately evaluated by ANY defensive metric, no matter how much you may have fallen in love with said metric. Occcasionally, you have to trust your eyes. This is one of those times.

If you throw stats out there in hope that they will intimidate those who are less astute than you, eventually those stats turn to alphabet soup.

That being said, I still believe that, eventually, we'll be able to fully evaluate players based upon their individual numbers. It is foolhardy, however, to think that the metrics available to us now come close to telling the whole story. Until we can add the sum of our favorite stats on a team to unfailingly predict the won-loss total of that team, we are clearly missing SOMETHING.

End of rant. Don't kick me off the blog, please, Richard.

For the record, Lance has not and will not be kicked off the blog. ;-)

hank (do you want that in lower case for a reason?) responds...

Most productive outfielder. Hmmmm. That depends entirely upon how you define "productive".

If we are to believe that The Most Productive Outfielder is the player with the highest "win shares", or should that be "wins above replacement player", or maybe "Net Runs above average"? Also worthy of consideration, apparently, is "Value over replacement player" and Equivalent average".

The traditional methods of measuring performance are not valid unless we use the "Davenport Translations" to allow for park factors?

In suggesting that Giles could hardly be the most productive outfielder in baseball, I carelessly tossed out a few names without research and was immediately admonished for this transgression.

I do not consider these above named stats are valid to determine the most productive outfielder.

Again I ask, what is PRODUCTIVE?

I believe that runs and runs batted in are the final say in productivity. Production is: Scoring runs for the team. Both scoring the runs himself and driving in runs, in my opinion, should determine the most productive player.

If you want to talk about the Most Valuable Player, then a lot more factors must be considered but for now we will just concern ourselves with production.

Brian Giles scored 63 runs in 444 plate appearances and drove in 56. Subtracting his homers(so they wont be counted twice) it leaves him with 109 runs produced in 444 plate appearances or a run produced every 4.07 plate appearances.

some others for consideration:

Player	Runs	HR	RBI	PA	PER RP
Damon	83	8	51	456	3.61
Dunn	75	31	72	426	3.67
Cabrera	75	23	76	440	3.43
Ortiz	75	25	88	454	3.29
Suzuki	74	9	42	466	4.27
Bay	72	20	55	454	4.24
Sheffield	71	21	81	440	3.35
Ramirez	69	29	97	408	2.97
Jones	62	32	80	436	3.89
Lee	58	26	89	455	3.82
Guerrero	57	21	70	362	3.41

My bottom line is to be the most productive outfielder you must be the best at producing runs for your team. Although Giles is a very good player and could be in the running for MVP of not only the Padres but the NL west div, I would say Manny Ramariz [sic] is the most productive outfielder.

(sorry the blog wont accept my tags for columns)

Added them for you... and I'll grant you that an argument can be made for Manny, though I don't believe you have made it. You've made a strong argument for the fact that he hits in the best lineup, though.

Kevin responds to hank...

You've got to be kidding. Runs and RBIs? Come on.

And if you use that, why remove home runs? Runs produced measured both parts of producing the run -- getting on base to score and knocking the runner home. Why penalize the player who "produced" both parts of the equation?

I tend to agree.

Lance: As do I. The huge value of home runs warrants being counted twice. But hank, runs & RBI?!? You're kidding, right?

Kevin quotes James...

Yes, we know a home run counts as a run and an RBI. But to subtract the home runs out is a flawed way of doing things, as Bill James said in his 1984 Baseball Abstract:

"My problem with "Runs Produced" has to do with this bit about subtracting the player's home run count? What you're figuring here isn't whole runs produced, it's half runs produced. One player provides the first half of the run--the on-base part of it; the A Factor; the run scored--and the other provides the second half of the run--the advancement part of it; the B Factor; the run batted in. Each is credited with one run produced. But when a player provides both the on-base act and the advancement act, he receives no more credit than if he had done only one. Does this make sense?"

Edit: One oversight, Miguel Cabrera is far and away the most productive outfielder this year.

Jake Peavy: Premier Strikeout Pitcher in the Game?

2005-08-03T14:58:00.000-07:00

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You bet he is. Jake has faced 552 batters this season and has struck out 155 of them. That's 28.1%, tops in the Majors by a healthy margin (it's double what Livan Hernandez, a 100 K pitcher, has managed). Pedro Martinez is second striking out exactly 27%. Jake is also the only pitcher in the Majors (with enough innings to qualify for the ERA title, but that should go without saying, anyway) to strike out at least 10 batters per nine innings pitched. Johan Santana, the AL's reigning Cy Young Award winner, is second striking out 9.62, or 0.42 behind Jake. Also, it isn't as though he's piling up K's by being wild. Among pitchers with at least 100 strikeouts, Jake is tenth in walks per nine innings, averaging 1.88.

I still can't believe he's only 24.

And I'm still very pleased that KT signed him to a four-year deal prior to the season.

And another thing...

I also find it amazing just how much Jake has outperformed his PECOTA projections by.

Compared to his 90th Percentile Projection...

Jake has a K/PA .087 higher.
Jake has a K/9 1.24 higher.
Jake has a BB/9 0.76 lower.
Jake has a K/BB 2.01 higher.

That's incredible.

Demoting Stauffer, Keeping Astacio: The Right Move?

2005-08-02T11:20:00.000-07:00

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I didn't think so. I may have been wrong. The numbers would certainly suggest that.

Annoyed by the decision, I set out to prove my position assured that the stats would back me up. It was quickly apparent that they don't. Just look at their median starting lines.

Stauffer: 6.0 IP, 7 H, 3.5 R, 1 HR, 2 BB, 3 K
Astacio: 6.0 IP, 6.5 H, 2 R, 1 HR, 1 BB, 3.5 K

Same innings, fewer hits, fewer runs, same home runs, fewer walks and more strikeouts. It looks to be a slam dunk. The only thing left to check was luck (BABIP). Their median BABIP is roughly the same (.290 to .292) and on average, Astacio has actually suffered worse luck. The only argument remaining is that Stauffer is more likely to improve. He probably is, but Astacio looks like he gives you a better chance to win right now and we need to win right now. Let Tim improve with Portland until he gets the call in September.