What Should the Padres Do?
The Padres have played nearly 40% of the season and are currently on pace to win 80 games. It will likely take 93-94 wins to repeat as Division Champions and 90 wins to make the playoffs as the Wild Card. I rather doubt it's possible to improve the team by 14 wins or even 10. Trading Vinny Castilla straight up for Alex Rodriguez at this point in the season should be worth less than 5.5 wins. The Padres would basically have to make two trades of roughly that caliber to be the favorite for the Wild Card. I don't see it happening. I think the Padres need to look at setting themselves up for next year at the expense of this year and they should start doing so now. This is in no way motivated by losing a series to the Marlins. That sort of thing happens to every team. It's not like we just lost a series to the Cubs.
It's still possible that the Padres begin to play much better and the Dodgers start to play much worse and the Padres experience great luck and the Dodgers have a series of unfortunate events in their future, but how likely is that?
It's still possible that the Padres begin to play much better and the Dodgers start to play much worse and the Padres experience great luck and the Dodgers have a series of unfortunate events in their future, but how likely is that?
posted by Richard B. Wade at 2:54 PM
9 Comments:
I'm not sure I agree with trading Cameron. His stock is down, so he won't fetch that much. Also, I think he could be a solid contributor in 2007.
Piazza, Roberts, Chan Ho Park (we'd probably have to eat salary), and Woody could probably all be moved for useful pieces of the '07 puzzle.
Castilla is absolutely useless. He's currently the worst third baseman in the Majors. Who needs that?
Anthony,
1) That would be roughly a 2.5 win difference. At that point you're an 82.5 win team.
2) This is already occurring.
3) That's like a half win difference.
4) Roughly a 2-2.5 win difference. We'll round up. 85.5 win team.
5 & 6) These are basically already in the math that gives us 80 wins.
Are Woody and Ryno going to be worth 5 MORE wins than the players who they'll be replacing? I don't see it.
No, I'm saying if it all breaks right we'll perform at the level of an 86 win team. An 86 win caliber team could win quite a few more or less games.
It might be box office suicide, but I'd cut bait at this point, with this team. Guys like Roberts, Piazza, Klesko, Bellhorn, Blum, Bard, and any pitcher not named Peavy or Young, could be used as trde bait to stock an extremely weak farm system.
The only way I keep all those guys, or look to acquire additional help, is if I think we can win the World Series.
Unless the acqusitions are Babe Ruth and Jimmie Foxx, we can't.
Soriano not only wouldn't resign, we don't have the prospects to get him in the first place. Also, our two best hitters are our corner outfielders. The upgrade from Roberts to Soriano would be something like 14 equivalent runs or maybe a win.
#82?
ya, now that i've done my part, i want everyone else to hurry up and do theirs :-)
Yours is 82. I have to make it into a bio.
No, mine is #80 ... perhaps it's #82 you have to turn into a bio ... I think you could you post what I sent you for #80 "as is"!
If you are talking about what I sent you for #80 (DF), and you really want something bio-ish, let me know and I'll take a stab at it ...
It's number 82, LM. We slid some other guys in front of him. The rankings are mostly determined, but we reserve the right to move guys around if it makes sense to do so.
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