Giving Up Too Soon?
From an e-mail penned (by me) prior to the 2005 season:
" Years ago [Bill] James wrote that if the Indians were lucky, Thome would be the next Carney Lansford (remember Thome @ the hot corner?). He added that if they were REALLY lucky he'd be the new George Brett. What he actually became was a sustained version of the young Eddie Matthews, if we restrict ourselves to 3B. Or maybe even Schmidt, although if you adjust to league average Jim might not hold up as well... Point being, even those smarter than [Vinay Kumar] & I are doomed to failure when projecting the future SHAPE of a young player. Sean will be good, although right now he should hit 8th in a decent line-up. I'm hoping for Ken Boyer, before he fell off a cliff. If we're lucky, Brett. It's not beyond reason."
Yeah, I actually wrote that.
Castilla won't be better than average in '06. Neither will Randa.
But Burroughs might be. And we're not winning anything with either of the old guys manning the hot corner.
This is a year to find out which young guys can play.
" Years ago [Bill] James wrote that if the Indians were lucky, Thome would be the next Carney Lansford (remember Thome @ the hot corner?). He added that if they were REALLY lucky he'd be the new George Brett. What he actually became was a sustained version of the young Eddie Matthews, if we restrict ourselves to 3B. Or maybe even Schmidt, although if you adjust to league average Jim might not hold up as well... Point being, even those smarter than [Vinay Kumar] & I are doomed to failure when projecting the future SHAPE of a young player. Sean will be good, although right now he should hit 8th in a decent line-up. I'm hoping for Ken Boyer, before he fell off a cliff. If we're lucky, Brett. It's not beyond reason."
Yeah, I actually wrote that.
Castilla won't be better than average in '06. Neither will Randa.
But Burroughs might be. And we're not winning anything with either of the old guys manning the hot corner.
This is a year to find out which young guys can play.
posted by Lance Richardson at 9:25 PM
2 Comments:
I don't think it's unrealistic to expect an above average season from Castilla. This year, in spite of injury, he performed above his 60th percentile PECOTA projection missing the league average mark by .002 on his EQA.
Randa, on the other hand, should maintain his above league average numbers. He'll likely also command more money than Castilla (and years).
I'd be surprised if Sean were to manage league average numbers this year.
Would I let Sean keep starting? Probably, but I'm not sure it'd be the right decision.
I've got the 3B review posted at Ducksnorts, and what's really depressing is that Blum was our best option there last year. He and Randa put up very similar numbers during their time in SD, but Randa's defense didn't measure up to Blum's.
I don't know what to make of Burroughs at this point. I keep lowering my expectations and at this point am hopeful that he can turn into a Bill Mueller type. That's not quite the Jon Olerud/Jeff Cirillo hybrid I once envisioned, nor am I nearly as confident in his ability to get there.
Agree 100% with the larger point that we need to find out which of the kids can play. Everything to me looks like the club is gearing up for 2007.
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