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Sunday, March 12, 2006

Infield Musings

Barfield appears a lock.

Given Josh Barfield's tremendous spring performance thus far, it would appear that he is in the process of locking-up the second base job. It could be assumed that this development would render Mark Bellhorn superfluous, but that assumption would be incorrect.

With the NL West essentially up for grabs, it seems clear to me that our chances of taking the division crown would be improved mightily if Bellhorn were to supplant Vinny Castilla at third base. Bellhorn figures to post an OBP roughly .075 higher than Castilla, with similar power numbers.

Castilla's supposed defensive wizardry could not possibly close that gap. Brooks Robinson, in his prime, could not close that gap. Teams that have more batters reach base, score more runs. This is obvious to most people not named Bruce Bochy.

And yet, Bochy is an intelligent man, and I trust that he will not take long to recognize the offensive-cipher that Castilla will prove to be.

Klesko done

Or possibly not. I suspect Ryan is capable, still, of a .285/.380/.490 line, even playing half his games in Petco. If he can attain those numbers, the Padres will be tough to beat in the West.

If not, let the Adrian Gonzalez era begin. Or the Walter Young era. Or Tagg Bozied. Really, I'm not picky.

Khalil Greene blossoms?

Sort of. I expect large strides on the offensive side. Seventy extra-base hits are not out of the question, coupled with a leap in bases-on-balls, and a corresponding jump in OBP and slugging.
Think .275/.360/.510. Which is one hell of a line for a shortstop in Petco.

Richard: I'll be shocked if he slugs over .480. I expect something like .260/.330/.440. Maybe a little more average and a bit more power (.270/.340/.470 maybe), but no way he slugs over .500 or has an OBP over .350.

In short, this will be the year he becomes an offensive force, if he's ever going to. It needs to happen, because the apparent benefits of his defense at shortstop are going to disappear in about three years, and he'll be our third baseman.

Mike Piazza

Just hit a grand slam in his first spring training game as a Padre. Just sayin.'

Richard:

Chan Ho Park out of the pen?

He's looked good in relief pitching for Korea and I think that may be where he's most valuable for the Padres this year. His PECOTA Weighted Mean Average as a starter is a K/9 of 6.32, BB/9 of 4.42, HR/9 of 0.98 and ERA of 4.96. If adjusted to relief the numbers are 7.33, 4.81, 0.80 and 3.92. Not bad.

2 Comments:

Blogger Anthony said...

I agree that Khalil needs to make that leap forward this year. Funny, he had almost the same number of extra base hits this year as last but he had 28 fewer walks and 23 fewer hits. I'm no expert but it seems to me he's very capable of mashing his pitch but he was impatient and chasing a lot of pitches. A lot of it probably had to do with not hitting as much in the 8 hole, I'm sure that took some adjustment. If he makes that adjustment I think a .350 OBP and .500 SLG are reasonable, he was .349/.446 as a rookie.

The Padres might be reluctant to put Chan Ho in the pen because of his salary but a good 7th inning guy is a better use of 10 million than a bad starter. Maybe because he knows he doesn't have to pace himself he's able to let it rip and be more aggressive.

10:40 PM, March 14, 2006  
Blogger LynchMob said...

BP's PECOTA projection for Khilil is ...

Year (age) PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS SPD AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG
2006 (26) 554 62 29 3 17 66 39 103 5 2 4.7 .257 .318 .427

... which seems much more realistic than .275/.360/.510 :-) Don't get me wrong ... I'm rooting for Khilil as much as you are ...

.279 .344 .481 is the BP 90% ... which I think they equate to .289 .353 .518 in a neutral park.

6:11 PM, March 17, 2006  

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