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Tuesday, May 03, 2005

I Finally Read Moneyball & Other Items of Less Importance

On MoneyBall

It was a good read. The only part I didn't particularly enjoy was the time spent on Bill James. I suppose part of that is because of my prior knowledge of James, but it was awfully dry. Beane is an interesting character and I couldn't help becoming (more) a fan of his. Perhaps most importantly, the book confirmed (to me) my suspicion that Paul DePodesta is a witch. I still can't figure out (mathematically) how he figures that OBP is three times as important as SLG (especially when SLG seems to correlate more strongly with Runs than OBP), but who am I to disagree with a witch. If anyone else has managed to go as long as I have without reading MoneyBall, they should definitely pick it up. I read it in one night.

Curse of Ismael Valdez?

From the Union Tribune: Rotation's rough spot? Padres will plead fifth


Bill Center's article in today's UT comes complete with Ismael Valdez's Win-Loss record. Am I the only one who gets physically ill when some idiot points out dismal Valdez's W% as though one can discern anything other than, "Valdez is one lucky SOB," from it?

Ismael Valdez is not very good (2004 VORP: 5.9, an amazing 286th among MLB pitchers). Travis Chick may be the best pitching prospect in our farm system. That's a good trade. Get over it. Seriously, just get over it. Please.

As an aside, the search for VORP somehow resulted in me creating a spreadsheet that finds Marginal Lineup Value when you plug in a player's BA, OBP & SLG. It probably wasn't worth my time, but it's a little late for realizing that.

Giles Trade Check-Up (2)

Padre fans seemed so fascinated by the trade that sent Jason Bay & Oliver Perez to the Pirates for Brian Giles, that I thought I'd provide a service. That service is going to come in the form of a regular check-up like the one below.






Batting Stats
NameABHTBBBBASecAOBPSLG
Jason Bay94284711.298.375.371.500
Brian Giles88172922.193.443.348.364






Pitching Stats
NameWLIPWHIPERAK/BB
Oliver Perez1331.21.867.111.22


Since the last check-up, Jason Bay has exploded and Giles has slumped. Ollie Perez has continued to be unimpressive, however. Try to remember where they play, though. Ollie and Bay are in a hitter's division and Giles in a pitcher's division (as far as ballparks).

Speaking of Pitching Stats

Something about ERA rubs me the wrong way. That in mind I was looking for something different. I think I like what I've come up with in Runs Created Average (RCA). I sort of assume this already exists, but I haven't seen it anywhere else.

Simple Formula: On-Base Percentage * Total Bases / Innings Pitched * 9

I feel like it takes away some of the luck inherent in ERA. Maybe I'm wrong, but I'm not terribly worried. If anyone has thoughts, I'd like to hear them.

3 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

5:29 PM, May 03, 2005  
Blogger Geoff said...

No, you're not the only one who feels that way about Valdez. The local media was trying to create a story out of nothing with that whole curse garbage. As I've said on numerous occasions, Valdez for Chick is a trade you make every time.

10:10 PM, May 03, 2005  
Blogger Richard B. Wade said...

God bless you, Geoff.

7:30 PM, May 04, 2005  

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