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Friday, June 17, 2005

The Good News

Title Track

The Padres blew their best opportunity to win this weekend. I just don't understand what's going on in Bruce Bochy's enormous head. If you have a runner on first base with no outs, you are more likely to score than if you have a runner on second with two outs. Everyone should know that by now. Also, if a guy can't bunt (like, oh I don't know, Khalil) you're likely to trade an out for nothing. It should go without saying that a runner on first with one out is less likely to score than a runner on first with no outs. Maybe Bochy doesn't know that, though.

I promised good news, though. The National League West is absolutely terrible. The Giants, Diamondbacks and Rockies almost certainly will not finish the season at .500 or better. I will be shocked if the Dodgers win more than 85. If I'm right, the Padres only need to win 50 of their next 95 games. They ought to be able to do that. Even if they can't, it's possible they still may win the division. It really is that awful.

Go Padres!

Rules About Sacrifice Bunting

Rule #1: If you're playing an away game, do not attempt to sacrifice bunt.

Rule #2: If it is not the ninth inning or later, do not attempt to sacrifice bunt.

Rule #3: If the game is not tied, do not attempt to sacrifice bunt.

Rule #4: If you do not have a runner on second, do not attempt to sacrifice bunt.

Rule #5: If there is an out, do not attempt to sacrifice bunt.

That's the last time I explain the sacrifice bunt tonight. I promise.

Friars by MLVr

From Baseball Prospectus:
MLVr is a rate-based version of Marginal Lineup Value (MLV), a measure of offensive production created by David Tate and further developed by Keith Woolner. MLV is an estimate of the additional number of runs a given player will contribute to a lineup that otherwise consists of average offensive performers. MLVr is approximately equal to MLV per game. The league average MLVr is zero (0.000).

Player PA MLVr
Robert Fick 37 0.578
Eric Young 3 0.279
Mark Sweeney 87 0.248
Brian Giles 278 0.229
Ryan Klesko 244 0.186
Dave Roberts 197 0.11
Xavier Nady 136 0.082
Mark Loretta 184 0.049
Ramon Hernandez 245 0.032
Phil Nevin 261 0.007
Khalil Greene 174 -0.021
Geoff Blum 169 -0.036
Sean Burroughs 207 -0.074
Woody Williams 16 -0.122
Damian Jackson 101 -0.158
Adam Eaton 36 -0.256
Jesse Garcia 39 -0.317
Miguel Ojeda 64 -0.465
Adam Hyzdu 25 -0.493
Tim Stauffer 11 -0.599
Jake Peavy 24 -0.745
Brian Lawrence 28 -0.845


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