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Wednesday, October 12, 2005

Off-Season Noise

Title Track

Riverside Press Enterprise: "The biggest question is what the Padres intend to do with Hoffman. The closer is an icon in San Diego and still has the stuff to get the job done in the ninth. He is closing in on the all-time save mark, but he wants to be paid like the Yankees' Mariano Rivera, which means $10 million."

Hoffman was worth roughly three million dollars this past season and there's no reason to believe he's going to be three times more valuable next year.

Next Year's Roster

Just some quick lists...

Arbitration Eligible Players (5): Adam Eaton, Dave Roberts, Sean Burroughs, Miguel Olivo, David Ross.

Adam Eaton will probably win more in arbitration than he's worth. The same can likely be said of Dave Roberts. Burroughs and Olivo shouldn't be able to get much and are worth keeping. David Ross is without worth.

Free Agent Players (12): Brian Giles, Ramon Hernandez, Trevor Hoffman, Joe Randa, Pedro Astacio, Chris Hammond, Rudy Seanez, Mark Sweeney, Robert Fick, Damian jackson, Eric Young ($850,000 Team Option), Manny Alexander.

Giles is easily the most important player to re-sign. If you need that explained to you, go away. Others worth keeping around are Hernandez, Hoffman, Astacio, Seanez, Sweeney, Fick, Jackson, Young. Hernandez and Hoffman will likely demand more than they're worth, so I favor letting them walk. The rest shouldn't be able to get much more than they did this season and the club ought to attempt to retain their services.

Players Signed through (at least) 2006 with known (by me) salaries (7): Ryan Klesko, Mark Loretta, Jake Peavy, Scott Linebrink, Chan Ho Park, Woody Williams ($500,000 buyout), Brian Lawrence.

Woody Williams could get paid $7,030,000 according to the Union Tribune. I'd rather he only get the $500,000. Peavy and Linebrink are both bargains. Chan Ho Park has to be the highest paid low leverage middle relief pitcher in the Majors.

Player Salary Percentage
Ryan Klesko 10,500,000 16.9
Chan Ho Park 10,000,000 16.1
Brian Lawrence 4,050,000 6.5
Mark Loretta 3,250,000 5.2
Jake Peavy 2,500,000 4
Scott Linebrink 1,365,000 2.2
Eric Young 850,000 1.4
Woody Williams 500,000 0.8

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Anonymous Anonymous said...

Don't take Hoffy's agent's pronouncements as anything more than posturing... no one is offering him anything close to 10 large next year.

That said, the Padres want the current player most closely identified with the team, a guy closing in on a "major" all-time record, in Padres blue the next two years (reasonable timeframe for securing the record). Given that, they will make an overly generous offer (given Hoffy was about the 4th best reliever on the team this year, and arguably hasn't been the best Padres reliever in any season since '99). I'm thinking they'll offer the 10M, but over two years, not one, or something with somewhat less base, but packed with incentives, or one year guaranteed plus an option year.

It will be, we'll all agree, substantially more than what he's actually worth, but may well be less than what others offer. We all love Hoffy, and at that point, we get to find out, in actual dollars, how much he loves us.

BTW, I hold out no hope that Ramon or Giles will return. Ramon will get a very, very handsome offer that the padres won't come close to matching. Giles is conditioning his return on the Padres spending big to keep the core together, and will use Ramon's departure as ammunition to justify his also packing his bags.

That will be 2 cents, please.

12:56 PM, October 13, 2005  
Blogger dprat said...

Ooops, did that wrong. Didn't want to be anonymous. It's me... dprat.

12:56 PM, October 13, 2005  
Blogger Richard B. Wade said...

Well said, dprat.

1:50 PM, October 13, 2005  
Blogger dprat said...

BTW, on which list should Aki be?

4:23 PM, October 13, 2005  
Blogger Richard B. Wade said...

According to some sources Aki has a team option. The salary attached to that option remains unknown.

10:06 PM, October 13, 2005  
Anonymous eric said...

I don't think it's so clearcut that we should sign Giles. What if other teams offer a 4th year? Do you want to pay him $10m+ when he's 38?

Burroughs' '04 salary ensures he'll make at least $1.3m. Is whatever's left of his upside worth that much?

Woody Williams triggered his 2006 option by making 25 starts, so the $500K buyout is not an option.

1:42 PM, October 14, 2005  
Blogger Richard B. Wade said...

Just because it is worth more to re-sign Giles than any of our other free agents doesn't mean that it's worth locking the team into an ugly long-term deal to do it.

If Burroughs hits at league average, his fielding makes him worth it.

Damnit. Why did we continue to use our #7 starter if it locked him in for '06 at a salary that could be greater than $7,000,000?

2:35 PM, October 14, 2005  

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