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Saturday, July 22, 2006

jbox asked, "Can we say Peavy sucks?"

(Stats used are prior to his July 21 start)

Based on his strikeout rate, unintentional walk rate, and the types of batted balls he's allowed, Peavy should be doing well. Basically, he's allowed 3 more singles, 7 more doubles, 3 more triples and 3 more home runs than you'd expect given his batted balls allowed and an average fielding team in a neutral park. Now, the three home runs could be explained away by the fact that the park has been kind to home run hitters this year. The extra hits that stayed in the park are strange given that the Padres turn batted balls into outs better than any team in the Majors other than the Tigers.

Combine that with the fact that he's grouped those hits, walks and outs in a most unfortunate way and you're looking at an ERA not in line with how Jake has pitched.

There's a few ways one could disagree with this.

1) You believe that a line drive allowed by one pitcher is more/less likely to be an out/hit than one allowed by another pitcher. Read: it's a pitcher's skill that determines if a ball lined to center is caught or not.

2) You believe that batted ball data is not tracked well enough to be used in any real analysis. Debatable.

3) You believe that component ERA means less in determining how well a pitcher pitched than actual ERA. Read: Pitcher A and Pitcher B both allow three singles and a double, but the fact that Pitcher B allowed them Double, Single, Single, Single instead of Single, Single, Single, Double means he pitched better than Pitcher A.

4) You really believe Peavy sucks and there's no convincing you otherwise.


Blogger Lance Richardson said...

David Pinto haslinked to this post!!! Now post the next Top 100 Padre, so we can get on with it!!!

4:19 PM, July 22, 2006  
Blogger Geoff said...

Agreed that Peavy has been unlucky in terms of ERA. That said, he's not pitching nearly as well he has the past couple years. I cannot believe the number of foul balls guys are hitting off him to keep at-bats alive. He is working so much harder to get through innings this season. I don't believe he sucks but I do believe it's time for some serious tweaking. My amateur opinion is that he needs to trust his stuff and his defense more, and not try to throw everything past the hitters.

11:26 AM, July 23, 2006  
Blogger Marc Normandin said...

From Under the Knife:

"The Padres have a more interesting situation. At the start of the year, I was shocked to see Jake Peavy on the cover of BP. Sure, everyone loved him, but not many people realized how serious the shoulder injury Peavy had was going to be. I tried to explain that he was suffering from a similar injury to the one that had sidelined Ben Sheets and Bartolo Colon. Peavy’s toughness and lower natural arm slot helped him pitch, but his results so far show that he’s been missing the mark more than hitting it. Less control, less velocity, and less motion is the nightmare trifecta for any pitcher, let alone one expected to contend for a Cy Young. At 26, Peavy’s health has him at something of a crossroads career-wise. Shoulder injuries don’t portend long, effective careers without summoning up visions of Frank Tanana."

7:31 AM, July 25, 2006  

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