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Monday, May 23, 2005

The Batting Order

Jay (over at Ducksnorts) got me thinking about who should be in the everyday lineup. Based on actual batting statistics and PECOTA projections (subscription required), the starters should be:

C Ramon Hernandez
SS Khalil Greene
2B Mark Loretta
CF Xavier Nady
3B Sean Burroughs
RF Brian Giles
LF Ryan Klesko
1B Mark Sweeney


Batting order based on (75th Percentile) PECOTA Projections:











Pos, NameBAOBPSLG
2B, Mark Loretta.306.373.443
3B, Sean Burroughs.292.358.409
RF, Brian Giles.299.411.519
LF, Ryan Klesko.294.394.493
1B, Mark Sweeney.273.371.486
CF, Xavier Nady.284.345.476
SS, Khalil Greene.276.345.454
C, Ramon Hernandez.273.346.440


Batting order based on Actual Batting Stats:











Pos, NameBAOBPSLG
2B, Mark Loretta.300.388.344
3B, Sean Burroughs.272.344.301
RF, Brian Giles.272.412.483
LF, Ryan Klesko.270.383.518
1B, Mark Sweeney.318.434.523
C, Ramon Hernandez.301.338.459
CF, Xavier Nady.264.324.409
SS, Khalil Greene.225.312.380


Oh and if you insist on running out the "opening day lineup," the order should look like this (actual stats):











Pos, NameBAOBPSLG
2B, Mark Loretta.300.388.344
3B, Sean Burroughs.272.344.301
RF, Brian Giles.272.412.483
LF, Ryan Klesko.270.383.518
C, Ramon Hernandez.301.338.459
CF, Dave Roberts.257.341.413
SS, Khalil Greene.225.312.380
1B, Phil Nevin.244.282.399


or (projections):











Pos, NameBAOBPSLG
2B, Mark Loretta.306.373.443
CF, Dave Roberts.291.362.376
RF, Brian Giles.299.411.519
LF, Ryan Klesko.294.394.493
1B, Phil Nevin.279.354.464
SS, Khalil Greene.276.345.454
C, Ramon Hernandez.273.346.440
3B, Sean Burroughs.292.358.409


Now, you have to wonder why Nevin is starting over Sweeney and Roberts over Nady. It seems obvious in both cases. Phil Nevin is being paid $9.00 M and Sweeney is being paid only $0.58 M (figures from Hardball Dollars). As for Roberts over Nady, which is only a $0.85 M difference, I think you have to look no further than this (from San Diego Padres Transactions:

12/20/04 Acquired OF Dave Roberts from Boston for OF Jay Payton, IF Ramon Vasquez, P David Pauley and cash.


Those are terrible reasons for starting one guy over another, but it doesn't seem likely to change any time soon.

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