The Batting Order
Jay (over at Ducksnorts) got me thinking about who should be in the everyday lineup. Based on actual batting statistics and PECOTA projections (subscription required), the starters should be:
Batting order based on (75th Percentile) PECOTA Projections:
Batting order based on Actual Batting Stats:
Oh and if you insist on running out the "opening day lineup," the order should look like this (actual stats):
or (projections):
Now, you have to wonder why Nevin is starting over Sweeney and Roberts over Nady. It seems obvious in both cases. Phil Nevin is being paid $9.00 M and Sweeney is being paid only $0.58 M (figures from Hardball Dollars). As for Roberts over Nady, which is only a $0.85 M difference, I think you have to look no further than this (from San Diego Padres Transactions:
Those are terrible reasons for starting one guy over another, but it doesn't seem likely to change any time soon.
C Ramon Hernandez
SS Khalil Greene
2B Mark Loretta
CF Xavier Nady
3B Sean Burroughs
RF Brian Giles
LF Ryan Klesko
1B Mark Sweeney
Batting order based on (75th Percentile) PECOTA Projections:
Pos, Name | BA | OBP | SLG |
---|---|---|---|
2B, Mark Loretta | .306 | .373 | .443 |
3B, Sean Burroughs | .292 | .358 | .409 |
RF, Brian Giles | .299 | .411 | .519 |
LF, Ryan Klesko | .294 | .394 | .493 |
1B, Mark Sweeney | .273 | .371 | .486 |
CF, Xavier Nady | .284 | .345 | .476 |
SS, Khalil Greene | .276 | .345 | .454 |
C, Ramon Hernandez | .273 | .346 | .440 |
Batting order based on Actual Batting Stats:
Pos, Name | BA | OBP | SLG |
---|---|---|---|
2B, Mark Loretta | .300 | .388 | .344 |
3B, Sean Burroughs | .272 | .344 | .301 |
RF, Brian Giles | .272 | .412 | .483 |
LF, Ryan Klesko | .270 | .383 | .518 |
1B, Mark Sweeney | .318 | .434 | .523 |
C, Ramon Hernandez | .301 | .338 | .459 |
CF, Xavier Nady | .264 | .324 | .409 |
SS, Khalil Greene | .225 | .312 | .380 |
Oh and if you insist on running out the "opening day lineup," the order should look like this (actual stats):
Pos, Name | BA | OBP | SLG |
---|---|---|---|
2B, Mark Loretta | .300 | .388 | .344 |
3B, Sean Burroughs | .272 | .344 | .301 |
RF, Brian Giles | .272 | .412 | .483 |
LF, Ryan Klesko | .270 | .383 | .518 |
C, Ramon Hernandez | .301 | .338 | .459 |
CF, Dave Roberts | .257 | .341 | .413 |
SS, Khalil Greene | .225 | .312 | .380 |
1B, Phil Nevin | .244 | .282 | .399 |
or (projections):
Pos, Name | BA | OBP | SLG |
---|---|---|---|
2B, Mark Loretta | .306 | .373 | .443 |
CF, Dave Roberts | .291 | .362 | .376 |
RF, Brian Giles | .299 | .411 | .519 |
LF, Ryan Klesko | .294 | .394 | .493 |
1B, Phil Nevin | .279 | .354 | .464 |
SS, Khalil Greene | .276 | .345 | .454 |
C, Ramon Hernandez | .273 | .346 | .440 |
3B, Sean Burroughs | .292 | .358 | .409 |
Now, you have to wonder why Nevin is starting over Sweeney and Roberts over Nady. It seems obvious in both cases. Phil Nevin is being paid $9.00 M and Sweeney is being paid only $0.58 M (figures from Hardball Dollars). As for Roberts over Nady, which is only a $0.85 M difference, I think you have to look no further than this (from San Diego Padres Transactions:
12/20/04 Acquired OF Dave Roberts from Boston for OF Jay Payton, IF Ramon Vasquez, P David Pauley and cash.
Those are terrible reasons for starting one guy over another, but it doesn't seem likely to change any time soon.
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home