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Wednesday, June 22, 2005

The Padres Will Win the NL West

Update: 5:06 PM

Paul McAnulty has been called up from Mobile and Tim Redding from Portland. Ramon Hernandez and Adam Eaton have both been placed on the 15-Day Disabled List. I'm not sure why they called up a Double-A first baseman... I'll have some thoughts on the move later.

Title Track

There is a lot of negativity surrounding our first place San Diego Padres. It is my belief that it's unfounded, or at least not founded in reality.

They have outperformed their Third Order Pythagenport Win Percentage (Pct3) by over five wins. Rather than being a cause for concern, though, that is a positive. The team will not get a chance to regress toward the mean because the current Padres are not the same club that has a Pct3 of .505.

They are better at this point in the season than they were for most of it. Tim Stauffer is better than May and Redding. Woody Williams, who was injured, is also better than either of the team's six and seven starters.

Jesse Garcia and Adam Hyzdu have been demoted in favor of better players. Miguel Ojeda is no longer the #2 catcher. Fick is considerably better. Phil Nevin may be injured which will allow better players to get more playing time.

Mark Loretta will return from the DL in July as will Eric Young. Both are better than players currently on the roster.

The Padres have played over their heads at times and have staked an improved club to a better record than they ought to be starting from. This team played better than it was. They now are better than they played. They will continue to improve thanks to players regaining their health and rejoining the team.

Hey Friar Faithful, enjoy it.

The Lineup

Given the opportunity to fill out the lineup for the Padres, I'd do it like so:

RF Brian Giles
1B Mark Sweeney
LF Ryan Klesko
C Robert Fick
CF Dave Roberts
3B Sean Burroughs
2B Damian Jackson
SS Khalil Greene

Giles finds himself batting leadoff because he leads the team in On-Base Percentage. Fick is batting cleanup due to his ridiculous slugging percentage. Ryno is in the three spot because after Fick and Giles, he's the club's next best slugger. Sweeney is #2 because of his combination of high on-base percentage (2nd) and high slugging percentage (4th). Dave Roberts' slugging percentage (5th) earns him the 5 hole. Sean Burroughs on-base percentage (6th) has him batting sixth. Damian Jackson's on-base percentage (8th) combined with the fact that he plays second base slots him in at #7. The fact that Khalil Greene plays shortstop gets him in the lineup.

All decisions were based on this year's performance only.

One More Reason to Hate Interleague Play

The Padres are tied with St. Louis for the best record in the National League against National League teams at 35-21.


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