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Thursday, July 27, 2006

Well, that last series appears to have been helpful.

Saturday, July 22, 2006

jbox asked, "Can we say Peavy sucks?"

(Stats used are prior to his July 21 start)

Based on his strikeout rate, unintentional walk rate, and the types of batted balls he's allowed, Peavy should be doing well. Basically, he's allowed 3 more singles, 7 more doubles, 3 more triples and 3 more home runs than you'd expect given his batted balls allowed and an average fielding team in a neutral park. Now, the three home runs could be explained away by the fact that the park has been kind to home run hitters this year. The extra hits that stayed in the park are strange given that the Padres turn batted balls into outs better than any team in the Majors other than the Tigers.

Combine that with the fact that he's grouped those hits, walks and outs in a most unfortunate way and you're looking at an ERA not in line with how Jake has pitched.

There's a few ways one could disagree with this.

1) You believe that a line drive allowed by one pitcher is more/less likely to be an out/hit than one allowed by another pitcher. Read: it's a pitcher's skill that determines if a ball lined to center is caught or not.

2) You believe that batted ball data is not tracked well enough to be used in any real analysis. Debatable.

3) You believe that component ERA means less in determining how well a pitcher pitched than actual ERA. Read: Pitcher A and Pitcher B both allow three singles and a double, but the fact that Pitcher B allowed them Double, Single, Single, Single instead of Single, Single, Single, Double means he pitched better than Pitcher A.

4) You really believe Peavy sucks and there's no convincing you otherwise.

Friday, July 14, 2006

NL West Division Race (Playoff Odds)

The above graph is based on BP's Postseason Odds Report.

Thursday, July 13, 2006

Khalil's Plate Discipline

It was mentioned by Geoff Young that Greene's plate discipline has returned to his 2004 levels. While his BB/PA rate is now .001 lower than it was in 2004, his plate discipline has actually increased significantly. Greene put up a .096 BB/PA in '04 compared to a .095 this year, but his unintentional walk rate has actually climbed from .078 to .095. Greene may have had a .349 OBP in 2004, but without the intentional passes he got for batting infront of the pitcher it would have been .337.