Quick Analysis of Padre Regulars

The Padres, thus far, have been dreadful on offense. The players most frequently blamed are Klesko, Giles, Nevin and Burroughs.

If people would invest only a small amount of effort in scrutinizing the readily available data, they would notice that one player on the list (Klesko) does not belong and that a more deserving Padre (Loretta) has been omitted.

Giles, Burroughs, Loretta and Nevin all find themselves in the bottom half of their position when it comes to RC27 (Runs Created). Only Klesko, LF, Nady, CF, and Hernandez, C, managed to crack the top half of the list at their positions.

Padre Regulars through 4/27/05
Name	RC	RC27	Rank (of 102)	Rank by Pos.
Ryan Klesko	14.2	6.87	22	4 of 14
Xavier Nady	11.3	6.23	31	4 of 13
Brian Giles	13.1	5.53	50	8 of 14
Sean Burroughs	8.3	5.23	59	10 of 13
Mark Loretta	12.2	4.90	62	8 of 12
Ramon Hernandez	10.2	4.68	66	4 of 10
Phil Nevin	10.2	3.99	76	10 of 13

Is Anyone on the Padres Consistent?

Well, there's Peavy:

Peavy's Consistency
Performance	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	GB	FB	BF	#Pit	GSc
Average	6.92	5	1	1	0.5	1.25	8.5	8	5.25	26	97	69.5
Median	7.0	5	1	1	0.5	1	8.5	8.5	5	25.5	96.5	70.5
Range	0.33	2	2	2	1	1	3	3	1	3	9	11

Sadly, he's it.

What do you think about the execution of your team?

In the immortal words of John Mckay, "I'm all for it." Padres lose 10-3 today. Something needs to change. Quickly.

Weekly State of the Division (3)

Current Standings
Team	W	L	GB
Los Angeles	13	6	-
Arizona	12	8	1.5
San Diego	9	11	4.5
San Francisco	8	11	5
Colorado	6	12	6.5

Expected Standings
Los Angeles	12	7	-
San Diego	11	9	1.5
San Francisco	9	11	3.5
Arizona	9	11	3.5
Colorado	7	11	4.5

Projected End-of-Season Standings
Los Angeles	101	61	-
San Diego	86	76	15
San Francisco	73	89	28
Arizona	73	89	28
Colorado	67	95	34

New Favorite Toy

Baseball Musings' Day By Day Database is rather awesome.

Padre Home Runs @ Bank One Ballpark

Padre Home Runs @ Coors Field

Padre Home Runs @ Dodger Stadium

Padre Home Runs @ Pacific Bell Park

Padre Home Runs @ PETCO Park

Correlation Coefficients

As you can see here, I've been known to waste time not only looking at baseball statistics, but also tearing them apart trying to figure out their value.

The purpose of the game is to score runs, of course. However, Runs scored and Runs Batted In are both dependent on the performance batting in front of and behind the hitter who's R & RBI totals are being evaluated. How, then, do we determine which statistics best measure the ability to put runs on the board?

Well, the solution I've decided on is correlation coefficients. So far, I've found the correlation coefficients of ten statistics to Runs scored by team in the year 2004. Below is a table.

Correlation Coefficients
Statistic	r	r^2
RC27	.974052931	.948779112
OPS	.971285134	.943394812
SLG	.928675427	.862438049
OBP	.87539315	.766313168
BA	.803430282	.645500218
IsoP	.780822351	.609683544
SecA	.772199835	.59629585
AB/HR	-.75255043	.566332154
BB/PA	.556142432	.309294405
BB/K	.490739624	.240825378

There's a Game Tonight, But I Ran Out of Time

If you're looking for something to read, Michael Lewis wrote a great article that you can find here.

Today's Game: Padres (8-10) @ Diamondbacks (10-8)

Game Preview @ Ducksnorts

Tonight's Game: Padres (8-9) @ Diamondbacks (9-8)

First Pitch @ 6:40 PM PST

Pitching Matchup

ARI: RHP Brandon Webb
2005: 3-0, 19.1 IP, 1.34 WHIP, 3.26 ERA, 1.50 K/BB
EPL: 8-13, 197.0 IP, 1.36 WHIP, 3.29 ERA, 1.84 K/BB
vs. SD '04: 1-1, 19.1 IP, 1.19 WHIP, 2.79 ERA, 1.75 K/BB


SD: RHP Jake Peavy
2005: 2-0, 20.2 IP, 0.97 WHIP, 1.31 ERA, 6.50 K/BB
EPL: 13-8, 164.1 IP, 1.27 WHIP, 3.26 ERA, 2.72 K/BB
vs. ARI '04: 2-1, 17.0 IP, 1.06 WHIP, 2.65 ERA, 3.43 K/BB

Brandon Webb vs. San Diego

Jake Peavy vs. Arizona

Tonight's Game: Padres (8-8) @ Diamondbacks (8-8)

First Pitch @ 6:40 PM PST

Pitching Matchup

ARI: LHP Brad Halsey
2005: 1-0, 16.0 IP, 1.19 WHIP, 2.81 ERA, 11.00 K/BB


SD: RHP Tim Redding
2005: 0-2, 10.1 IP, 1.35 WHIP, 4.35 ERA, 2.33 K/BB
EPL: 7-10, 130.2 IP, 1.56 WHIP, 4.90 ERA, 1.50 K/BB
vs. ARI '04: 0-1, 5.2 IP, 1.94 WHIP, 4.76 ERA, 1.50 K/BB

Brad Halsey vs. San Diego

Tim Redding vs. Arizona

Padres Defeat LAD 6-1, Finish Home Stand 3-1

The Padres (8-8) are now 3-0 with Dave Roberts leading off. The assertion that Roberts would provide a spark seems to be accuurate thus far. He's certainly been a substantial improvement over the club's other lead-off efforts.

Just look at this table complete with 14 Plate Appearance sample size:

Just Ignore the Stupidly Small Sample Size
Batterr	AB	H	TB	BB	SB	CS	BA	SecA	OBP	SLG
Others Batting #1	57	11	19	4	1	0	.193	.228	.242	.333
Dave Roberts	12	4	5	2	1	0	.333	.333	.429	.417

Tonight's Game: Padres (7-8) vs. Dodgers (12-2)

First Pitch @ 7:05 PM PST

Pitching Matchup

LAD: RHP Scott Erickson
2005: 1-0, 10.1 IP, 1.45 WHIP, 6.97 ERA, 0.00 K/BB
vs. SD '05: 1-0, 6.0 IP, 1.17 WHIP, 3.00 ERA, 0.00 K/BB


SD: RHP Adam Eaton
2005: 1-1, 16.2 IP, 1.38 WHIP, 3.24 ERA, 2.60 K/BB
EPL: 10-13, 192.2 IP, 1.30 WHIP, 4.40 ERA, 2.61 K/BB
vs. LAD '05: 0-1, 6.0 IP, 1.38 WHIP, 4.50 ERA, 1.00 K/BB

Scott Erickson vs. San Diego

Adam Eaton vs. LA Dodgers

Padres Lose 3-1 in 10 Innings.

I have not the words.

Tonight's Game: Padres (7-7) vs. Dodgers (11-2)

First Pitch @ 7:05 PM PST

Pitching Matchup

LAD: RHP Derek Lowe
2005: 1-1, 20.1 IP, 0.93 WHIP, 1.77 ERA, 3.50 K/BB
EPL: 16-10, 195.2 IP, 1.44 WHIP, 4.63 ERA, 1.69 K/BB
vs. SD '05: 1-0, 9.0 IP, 0.44 WHIP, 0.00 ERA, 5.00 K/BB


SD: RHP Woody Williams
2005: 1-1, 15.2 IP, 1.72 WHIP, 7.47 ERA, 2.20 K/BB
EPL: 13-8, 185.2 IP, 1.25 WHIP, 3.80 ERA, 2.56 K/BB
vs. LAD '05: 0-1, 6.1 IP, 1.74 WHIP, 5.68 ERA, 1.67 K/BB

Lowe v. Current Padres
Opposing hitter	AB	H	HR	BB	K	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Ramon Hernandez	11	2	0	0	1	.182	.182	.182	.364
Geoff Blum	11	3	1	1	0	.273	.333	.545	.879
Ryan Klesko	9	3	0	0	2	.333	.333	.333	.667
Brian Giles	9	2	0	2	0	.222	.364	.222	.586
Phil Nevin	8	1	0	0	2	.125	.125	.125	.250
Mark Loretta	7	1	0	0	0	.143	.143	.143	.286
Dave Roberts	7	3	0	0	1	.429	.429	.429	.857
Sean Burroughs	3	1	0	1	0	.333	.500	.333	.833
Xavier Nady	3	1	0	0	0	.333	.333	.333	.667
Woody Williams	2	1	0	0	0	.500	.500	.500	1.000
Mark Sweeney	2	0	0	0	2	.000	.000	.000	.000
Jesse Garcia	2	0	0	0	1	.000	.000	.000	.000

Pitcher v. Current Team
Opposing hitter	AB	H	HR	BB	K	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jeff Kent	38	14	3	6	5	.368	.478	.789	1.268
Paul Bako	18	5	0	1	5	.278	.316	.333	.649
Cesar Izturis	14	3	0	0	3	.214	.214	.286	.500
Jose Valentin	12	3	1	4	6	.250	.438	.583	1.021
Hee Seop Choi	11	0	0	0	5	.000	.000	.000	.000
J.D. Drew	10	0	0	3	4	.000	.231	.000	.231
Ricky Ledee	9	2	1	0	2	.222	.222	.667	.889
Milton Bradley	7	2	1	1	3	.286	.444	.714	1.159
Derek Lowe	3	1	0	0	0	.333	.333	.333	.667
Jason Phillips	3	2	0	0	0	.667	.667	.667	1.1333
Jason Grabowski	1	0	0	0	1	.000	.000	.000	.000

B-Law Tosses a Gem

All I have time for is Lawrence's line, but that says it all:

8.0 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 2 K, 0 BB

Tonight's Game: Padres (6-7) vs. Giants (6-6)

First Pitch @ 7:05 PM PST

Pitching Matchup
SF: RHP Jerome Williams
2005: 0-0, 7.2 IP, 1.17 WHIP, 2.35 ERA, 1.67 K/BB
EPL: 9-6, 130.0 IP, 1.28 WHIP, 3.86 ERA, 1.81 K/BB
vs. SD '04: 2-0, 13.2 IP, 0.80 WHIP, 1.32 ERA, 2.33 K/BB

SD: RHP Brian Lawrence
2005: 0-2, 9.2 IP, 1.97 WHIP, 8.38 ERA, 2.00 K/BB
EPL: 13-14, 206.2 IP, 1.33 WHIP, 4.07 ERA, 2.26 K/BB
vs. SF '04: 2-1, 27.1 IP, 1.50 WHIP, 5.27 ERA, 1.08 K/BB

Williams v. Current Padres
Opposing hitter	AB	H	HR	BB	K	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Phil Nevin	15	2	1	0	4	.133	.133	.333	.467
Mark Loretta	14	4	1	1	0	.286	.375	.500	.875
Brian Giles	12	1	0	2	0	.083	.200	.083	.283
Ramon Hernandez	12	2	0	0	2	.167	.231	.250	.481
Sean Burroughs	12	3	0	1	0	.250	.308	.250	.558
Dave Roberts	8	3	0	1	0	.375	.444	.625	1.069
Ryan Klesko	7	1	0	1	0	.143	.222	.143	.365
Xavier Nady	2	1	0	1	0	.500	.667	.500	1.167
Miguel Ojeda	2	1	0	1	0	.500	.667	.500	1.167

Lawrence v. Current Giants
Opposing hitter	AB	H	HR	BB	K	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Marquis Grissom	29	8	1	0	3	.276	.276	.414	.690
Ray Durham	27	9	2	0	5	.333	.357	.556	.913
J.T. Snow	25	7	1	3	1	.280	.345	.480	.825
Edgardo Alfonzo	21	5	0	3	0	.238	.333	.286	.619
Michael Tucker	17	7	1	2	3	.412	.474	.647	1.121
Mike Matheny	10	0	0	0	1	.000	.000	.000	.000
Deivi Cruz	5	1	0	0	0	.200	.200	.200	.400
Pedro Feliz	5	3	1	0	1	.600	.600	1.400	2.000
Yorvit Torrealba	5	1	0	0	1	.200	.200	.200	.400

Padres Hire Alderson

Related Links:

SignOnSandiego: Padres to name Alderson top executive

Padres RunDown: Moores' "Most Significant Signing"

SignOnSanDiego: Padres lure Alderson

SignOnSanDiego: Team's lethargy too tiresome to take

Majore League Baseball: Alderson takes job as Padres CEO

Notable Quotables:

"That's a home run," said a high-ranking executive with another club. "That's better than signing Carlos Beltran."

"Alderson, the former president and GM of the Athletics, isn't a bean-counter who will be brought in to look good in a suit. he's a top baseball hand." - Nick Canepa

"For me this is the last piece of a complicated puzzle that involved building a ballpark and redeveloping San Diego," Moores said... "It's time to build a competitive team and it allows us to significantly strengthen our management team. I think this is our most significant signing in the 11 years I've owned the team."

The future of Bochy and Towers in the organization will be up to Alderson, Moores said, although he doesn't expect any immediate changes.

Giles Trade Check-Up

Padre fans seemed so fascinated by the trade that sent Jason Bay & Oliver Perez to the Pirates for Brian Giles, that I thought I'd provide a service. That service is going to come in the form of a regular check-up like the one below.

Batting Stats
Name	AB	H	TB	BB	BA	SecA	OBP	SLG
Jason Bay	52	14	17	6	.269	.173	.345	.327
Brian Giles	44	10	24	14	.227	.636	.400	.545

Pitching Stats
Name	W	L	IP	WHIP	ERA	K/BB
Oliver Perez	0	2	15.0	2.00	9.60	1.33

Tonight's Game: Padres (5-7) vs. Giants (6-5)

First Pitch @ 7:05 PM PST

Pitching Matchup
SF: RHP Brett Tomko
2005: 0-2, 10.2 IP, 1.97 WHIP, 5.91 ERA, 0.83 K/BB
EPL: 12-8, 198.2 IP, 1.40 WHIP, 4.53 ERA, 1.86 K/BB
vs. SD '04: 0-1, 11.0 IP, 1.27 WHIP, 6.55 ERA, 0.50 K/BB

SD: RHP Jake Peavy
2005: 1-0, 13.2 IP, 0.95 WHIP, 1.32 ERA, 5.67 K/BB
EPL: 13-8, 164.1 IP, 1.27 WHIP, 3.26 ERA, 2.72 K/BB
vs. SF '04: 2-1, 33.1 IP, 1.20 WHIP, 1.89 ERA, 1.79 K/BB

Tomko v. Current Padres
Opposing hitter	AB	H	HR	BB	K	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Brian Giles	27	6	2	3	0	.250	.323	.643	.965
Mark Loretta	25	11	0	1	1	.440	.481	.560	1.041
Dave Roberts	24	4	0	3	4	.167	.259	.167	.426
Ryan Klesko	19	4	1	3	2	.211	.318	.421	.739
Phil Nevin	11	2	0	2	1	.182	.308	.273	.580
Geoff Blum	10	2	0	1	2	.200	.273	.300	.573
Mark Sweeney	8	2	0	2	1	.250	.455	.375	.830
Ramon Hernandez	6	0	0	0	1	.000	.000	.000	.000
Sean Burroughs	6	2	0	0	0	.333	.333	.333	.667
Miguel Ojeda	3		0	1	1	.333	.500	.333	.833
Jake Peavy	2	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	.000

Peavy v. Current Giants
Opposing hitter	AB	H	HR	BB	K	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Ray Durham	28	5	0	0	8	.179	.179	.321	.500
Marquis Grissom	27	9	0	1	3	.333	.345	.333	.678
J.T. Snow	22	9	2	2	5	.409	.480	.818	1.298
Edgardo Alfonzo	16	4	0	2	1	.250	.333	.313	.646
Michael Tucker	16	4	0	3	4	.250	.368	.250	.618
Yorvit Torrealba	9	5	1	0	0	.556	.556	1.000	.1.556
Pedro Feliz	8	1	1	1	2	.125	.222	.500	.722
Deivi Cruz	7	0	0	0	1	.000	.000	.000	.000
Tony Torcato	3	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	.000
Brett Tomko	2	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	.000
Mike Matheny	2	0	0	1	1	.000	.333	.000	.333

A Couple of Graphs

I'll post the charts again if anyone wants them, but I just don't have time at the moment.

NL West Division Race

Weekly State of the Division (2)

Current Standings
Team	W	L	GB
Los Angeles	9	2	-
San Francisco	6	5	3
Arizona	6	6	3.5
San Diego	5	7	4.5
Colorado	2	9	7

Expected Standings
Los Angeles	7	4	-
San Francisco	6	5	1
San Diego	6	6	1.5
Arizona	6	6	1.5
Colorado	4	7	3

Projected End-of-Season Standings
Los Angeles	103	59	-
San Francisco	84	78	19
San Diego	79	83	24
Arizona	74	88	29
Colorado	62	100	41

Today's Game: Padres (5-6) @ Dodgers (8-2)

First Pitch @ 1:10 PM PST

Pitching Matchup
LAD: RHP Jeff Weaver
2005: 1-0, 11.0 IP, 1.55 WHIP, 6.55 ERA, 3.00 K/BB
EPL: 11-11, 196.1 IP, 1.39 WHIP, 4.59 ERA, 2.26 K/BB
vs. SD '04: 1-4, 37.0 IP, 1.38 WHIP, 4.86 ERA, 2.67 K/BB

SD: RHP Tim Redding
2005: 0-1, 5.1 IP, 1.31 WHIP, 0.00 ERA, 0.50 K/BB
EPL: 7-10, 130.2 IP, 1.56 WHIP, 4.90 ERA, 1.50 K/BB
vs. LAD '04: 0-0, 1.0 IP, 2.00 WHIP, 0.00 ERA, 2.00 K/BB

Weaver v. Current Padres
Opposing hitter	AB	H	HR	BB	K	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Ramon Hernandez	30	11	1	1	6	.367	.375	.600	.975
Brian Giles	27	7	1	1	4	.259	.286	.481	.767
Mark Loretta	20	6	0	2	2	.300	.364	.400	.764
Phil Nevin	16	5	1	1	3	.313	.353	.500	.853
Ryan Klesko	14	5	0	3	3	.357	.471	.357	.828
Sean Burroughs	14	3	0	0	1	.214	.214	.214	.429
Jesse Garcia	3	0	0	0	1	.000	.000	.000	.000
Miguel Ojeda	2	0	0	0	1	.000	.000	.000	.000
Xavier Nady	1	0	0	0	1	.000	.000	.000	.000

Redding v. Current Dodgers
Opposing hitter	AB	H	HR	BB	K	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
J.D. Drew	7	3	1	4	2	.429	.636	.857	1.494
Hee Seop Choi	7	2	1	2	0	.286	.444	.857	1.302
Jeff Kent	6	2	0	0	0	.333	.333	.500	.833
Cesar Izturis	6	2	0	0	1	.333	.333	.500	.833
Paul Bako	5	1	0	0	0	.200	.200	.400	.600
Jason Phillips	3	1	0	1	0	.333	.500	.333	.833
Milton Bradly	0	0	0	1	0	.000	1.000	.000	1.000

Ugly Night

Baseball: Padres lose 8-3 to the hated Dodgers & Khalil Greene breaks his finger.

SuperCross: Chad Reed finishes fourth and James "Bubba" Stewart wins.

UFC 52: Randy Couture knocked out in first round.

What garbage.

Tonight's Game: Padres (5-5) @ Dodgers (7-2)

First Pitch @ 7:10 PM PST

Pitching Matchup
LAD: RHP Scott Erickson
2005: 0-0, 4.1 IP, 1.85 WHIP, 12.46 ERA, .000 K/BB

SD: RHP Adam Eaton
2005: 1-0, 10.2 IP, 1.13 WHIP, 2.53 ERA, 5.00 K/BB
EPL: 10-13, 192.2 IP, 1.30 WHIP, 4.40 ERA, 2.61 K/BB
vs. LAD '04: 4-1, 37.2 IP, 0.98 WHIP, 2.87 ERA, 3.13 K/BB

Erickson v. Current Padres
Opposing hitter	AB	H	HR	BB	K	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Mark Loretta	11	1	0	1	0	.091	.167	.091	.258
Ryan Klesko	9	2	1	1	0	.222	.300	.556	.856
Brian Giles	8	4	1	1	0	.500	.556	1.125	1.681
Phil Nevin	6	0	0	1	3	.000	.143	.000	.143
Ramon Hernandez	5	2	0	0	0	.400	.400	.400	.800

Eaton v. Current Dodgers
Opposing hitter	AB	H	HR	BB	K	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Cesar Izturis	29	6	0	1	2	.207	.233	241	.475
Milton Bradley	20	3	1	1	7	.150	.190	.350	.540
Jeff Kent	11	3	1	1	3	.273	.333	.636	.970
Hee Seop Choi	7	2	0	1	2	.286	.375	.286	.661
Jason Grabowski	4	0	0	1	0	.000	.200	.000	.200
Paul Bako	3	0	0	0	1	.000	.000	.000	.000
Ricky Ledee	2	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	.000
J.D. Drew	1	1	0	1	0	1.000	1.000	1.000	2.000

Lowe Dominant in 4-0 Win

The Padres, who have averaged six walks per game this season, managed to draw only one tonight. Lowe was able to limit the Padres to four base-runners while picking up his second career shutout. Starting for the Padres, Woody Williams was taken deep twice by Kent and Bradley. The other two runs given up by Williams were career RBIs two and three for Derek Lowe.

The only positives from tonight's game were Sean Burroughs (1-3, BB) and Chris Hammond's scoreless 1.2 IP in relief of Williams. Those are pathetic highlights. I could say more, but this was just an ugly loss (Padres' first shutout of the year).

The Dodgers are now 7-2 & the Padres are now 5-5.

Statistics

Due to the fact that I hate OPS, I've been looking for something better to use as a measuring stick. For the uninitiated, OPS = OBP + SLG. OBP = (H + BB) / (AB + BB) & SLG = (H + 2B + 2*3B + 3*HR) / AB.

That gives you:

[(H + BB) / (AB + BB)] + [(H + 2B + 2*3B + 3*HR) / AB] = OPS.

You can't add fractions with different denominators. That's basic. Just to add them you have to multiply each numerator by the other's denominator. That gives you a formula like this

[ ( H*AB + BB*AB ) / ( AB*AB + BB*AB ) ] + ( [ H*(AB + BB) + 2B*(AB + BB) + 2*3B*(AB + BB) + 3*HR*(AB + BB) ] / [ AB*(AB + BB) ] )

If that makes sense to you, you're most likely an idiot. Why would we use that? What would possess people to multiply by AB and BB that many times? It's a stupid formula. Very stupid. My initial thought was to try to fix it. I doubt that's worthwhile. It's far too ugly.

Instead, I started looking around. I've always liked Bill James' Secondary Average (TB - H + BB + SB - CS) / AB. A couple things about that bother me a lot. I'm aware that it's meant as a compliment to the incredibly flawed batting average, but I'm looking for an OPS replacement rather than a BA fix. My initial thought is to go with (TB + BB + SB - CS) / PA. Having decided that dividing by PA unfairly punishes batters for taking walks, I went back to AB. This gives us a new stat, a bastardized Secondary Average, or BSA if you will. BSA could also be considered Batting Average + Secondary Average. This is possible because both denominators are the same (AB).

I'll still post OPS, but any future graphs tracking performance will use BSA. If I've missed something obvious, I'd appreciate it if someone could point it out to me.

Minor Update: Over the last two seasons, the aggregate SecA has been roughly equal to the aggregate BA. 2004, SecA = .268 & BA = .263. 2005, SecA = .262 & BA = .262. I'll probably do a few more seasons, but unless they're substantially different I won't bother to update. It's my understanding that there is a much larger variance in SecA, so I'll have a look at that and unless that turns out false (which I doubt), I won't bother to post on it.

Tonight's Game: Padres (5-4) @ Dodgers (6-2)

Pitching Matchup
LAD: RHP Derek Lowe
2005: 0-1, 11.1 IP, 1.32 WHIP, 3.18 ERA, 3.00 K/BB
EPL: 16-10, 195.2 IP, 1.44 WHIP, 4.63 ERA, 1.69 K/BB

SD: RHP Woody Williams
2005: 1-0, 9.1 IP, 1.71 WHIP, 8.68 ERA, 3.00 K/BB
EPL: 13-8, 185.2 IP, 1.25 WHIP, 3.80 ERA, 2.56 K/BB
vs. LAD '04: 1-0, 18.2 IP, 1.07 WHIP, 2.89 ERA, 5.50 K/BB

Lowe v. Current Padres
Opposing hitter	AB	H	HR	BB	K	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Geoff Blum	11	3	1	1	0	.273	.333	.545	.879
Ramon Hernandez	8	2	0	0	1	.250	.250	.250	.500
Ryan Klesko	5	3	0	0	0	.600	.600	.600	1.200
Brian Giles	5	2	0	2	0	.400	.571	.400	.971
Phil Nevin	4	1	0	0	1	.250	.250	.250	.500
Mark Loretta	3	1	0	0	0	.333	.333	.333	.667
Jesse Garcia	2	0	0	0	1	.000	.000	.000	.000
Mark Sweeney	1	0	0	0	1	.000	.000	.000	.000

Williams v. Current Dodgers
Opposing hitter	AB	H	HR	BB	K	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jeff Kent	35	13	2	6	5	.371	.488	.743	1.231
Paul Bako	18	5	0	1	5	.278	.316	.333	.649
Jose Valentin	10	2	1	3	5	.200	.385	.600	.985
Cesar Izturis	10	2	0	0	2	.200	.200	.300	.500
J.D. Drew	7	0	0	2	3	.000	.222	.000	.222
Hee Seop Choi	7	0	0	0	4	.000	.000	.000	.000
Ricky Ledee	6	2	1	0	1	.333	.333	1.000	1.333
Milton Bradley	5	0	0	0	3	.000	.167	.000	.167
Jason Grabowski	1	0	0	0	1	.000	.000	.000	.000

Statistical Lineup Comparisons

#1 Hitters
Team	AB	H	HR	BB	K	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Padres	41	8	2	3	10	.195	.250	.390	.640
Opponents	38	15	1	5	5	.395	.477	.632	1.109

#2 Hitters
Team	AB	H	HR	BB	K	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Padres	36	12	0	7	5	.333	.467	.389	.856
Opponents	42	16	2	1	6	.381	.395	.548	.943

#3 Hitters
Team	AB	H	HR	BB	K	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Padres	30	8	3	12	9	.267	.455	.700	1.155
Opponents	37	8	0	5	4	.216	.310	.243	.553

#4 Hitters
Team	AB	H	HR	BB	K	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Padres	38	9	3	6	8	.237	.341	.526	.867
Opponents	34	9	2	6	6	.265	.381	.441	.822

#5 Hitters
Team	AB	H	HR	BB	K	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Padres	38	8	1	4	8	.211	.286	.289	.575
Opponents	38	10	0	0	11	.263	.268	.368	.637

#6 Hitters
Team	AB	H	HR	BB	K	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Padres	35	13	2	5	5	.371	.450	.657	1.107
Opponents	37	10	0	2	5	.270	.308	.351	.659

#7 Hitters
Team	AB	H	HR	BB	K	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Padres	32	12	2	6	5	.375	.462	.688	1.149
Opponents	35	5	1	3	8	.143	.211	.257	.468

#8 Hitters
Team	AB	H	HR	BB	K	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Padres	29	7	0	8	6	.241	.410	.276	.686
Opponents	35	4	0	2	8	.114	.162	.143	.305

San Diego Padres Team Batting Statistics

Statistics are from ESPN.

Players with at least 3.1 PA per G
Name	AB	H	HR	BB	K	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Xavier Nady	34	14	3	3	6	.412	.459	.824	1.283
Brian Giles	30	8	3	12	9	.267	.455	.700	1.155
Ramon Hernandez	28	9	1	5	3	.321	.424	.500	.924
Ryan Klesko	31	8	2	6	6	.258	.378	.484	.862
Mark Loretta	36	12	0	7	5	.333	.467	.389	.856
Khalil Greene	30	8	0	5	8	.267	.361	.367	.728
Sean Burroughs	28	7	0	3	5	.250	.344	.286	.629
Phil Nevin	38	7	2	3	8	.184	.244	.368	.612

Nady Continues to Shine

After today's double-header, Xavier Nady is batting a ridiculous .412/.459/.824 with 11 RBIs. Those are Playstation numbers. I mean, his ISP is .412. That's higher than some guys' SLG%. If you lop .100 off all of his numbers, they still look good. Who would be upset if Nady turned in a line of .312/.359/.724? That's still outstanding.

Nady's .412 Batting Average, 3 Home Runs & 11 Runs Batted In also have him in the top five in the NL of all three categories. He ranks 5th, 5th, and 3rd respectively. A triple-crown possibility? Of course not, but X is off to a ridiculous start.

Today's Second Game: Padres (5-3) @ Cubs (3-5)

First Pitch 20 min. after Game 1 of Double-header.

Pitching Matchup
CHC: RHP Mark Prior
EPL: 10-5, 149.1 IP, 1.24 WHIP, 3.37 ERA, 3.73 K/BB
vs. SD in '04: 0-1, 3.0 IP, 4.33 WHIP, 21.00 ERA, 0.60 K/BB

SD: RHP Brian Lawrence
EPL: 13-14, 206.2 IP, 1.33 WHIP, 4.07 ERA, 2.26 K/BB
2005: 0-1, 7.0 IP, 1.29 WHIP, 2.57 ERA, 2.50 K/BB

Prior vs. Current Padres
Opposing hitter	AB	H	HR	BB	K	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Geoff Blum	14	2	1	2	6	.143	.250	.429	.679
Brian Giles	10	4	1	3	4	.400	.538	.900	1.438
Mark Loretta	8	3	0	0	3	.375	.375	.375	.750
Phil Nevin	7	1	0	0	1	.143	.250	.143	.393
Ryan Klesko	6	0	0	1	2	.000	.143	.000	.143
Sean Burroughs	6	1	0	0	1	.167	.167	.167	.333
Ramon Hernandez	2	2	0	0	0	1.000	1.000	1.000	2.000
Adam Hyzdu	1	0	0	0	1	.000	.000	.000	.000
Khalil Greene	0	0	0	2	0	.000	1.000	.000	1.000

Lawrence vs. Current Cubs
Opposing hitter	AB	H	HR	BB	K	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jeromy Burnitz	12	3	2	3	2	.250	.400	.750	1.150
Todd Hollandsworth	9	5	1	0	0	.556	.556	1.000	1.556
Todd Walker	8	3	0	0	2	.375	.375	.375	.750
Derrek Lee	8	3	2	1	1	.375	.444	1.125	1.569
Neifi Perez	7	2	0	2	0	.286	.444	.286	.730
Aramis Ramirez	7	2	0	0	0	.286	.286	.286	.571
Corey Patterson	7	3	0	0	0	.429	.429	.571	1.000
Nomar Garciaparra	5	2	0	1	1	.400	.500	.400	.900
Michael Barrett	4	1	0	1	1	.250	.400	.250	.650
Jerry Hairston Jr.	3	0	0	0	1	.000	.000	.000	.000
Jose Macias	1	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	.000

Today's First Game: Padres (4-3) @ Cubs (3-4)

First Pitch @ 10:00 AM PST

Pitching Matchup
CHC: Kerry Wood
EPL: 11-10, 176.0 IP, 1.24 WHIP, 3.54 ERA, 2.67 K/BB
2005: 0-0, 5.2 IP, 1.59 WHIP, 3.18 ERA, 1.40 K/BB

SD: RHP Jake Peavy
EPL: 13-8, 164.1 IP, 1.27 WHIP, 3.26 ERA, 2.72 K/BB
2005: 0-0, 6.2 IP, 0.90 WHIP, 0.00 ERA, 5.00 K/BB
vs. CHC in '04: 0-0, 5.0 IP, 1.20 WHIP, 1.80 ERA, 3.00 K/BB

Wood vs. Current Padres
Opposing hitter	AB	H	HR	BB	K	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Mark Loretta	23	4	1	3	6	.174	.321	.304	.626
Brian Giles	23	5	4	5	3	.217	.345	.783	1.127
Geoff Blum	19	6	0	3	5	.316	.409	.368	.778
Ryan Klesko	18	2	0	4	8	.111	.292	.167	.458
Phil Nevin	9	2	0	1	1	.222	.300	.222	.522
Sean Burroughs	8	1	0	1	3	.125	.222	.125	.347
Miguel Ojeda	3	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	.000
Jesse Garcia	2	1	0	4	0	.500	.833	1.000	.1833
Xavier Nady	2	1	0	1	1	.500	.750	.500	1.250
Mark Sweeney	1	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	.000

Peavy vs. Current Cubs
Opposing hitter	AB	H	HR	BB	K	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jeromy Burnitz	11	0	0	1	5	.000	.077	.000	.077
Neifi Perez	10	0	0	1	1	.000	.083	.000	.083
Todd Hollandsworth	5	1	0	1	1	.200	.333	.400	.733
Derrek Lee	5	1	0	0	2	.200	.200	.400	.600
Aramis Ramirez	5	2	0	0	1	.400	.400	.600	1.000
Corey Patterson	5	3	0	1	0	.600	.667	.600	1.267
Nomar Garciaparra	3	0	0	0	1	.000	.000	.000	.000
Michael Barrett	2	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	.000
Jose Macias	2	1	1	0	1	.500	.500	2.000	2.500

Lynn Henning = Idiot ?

Is Lynn Henning of The Detroit News the stupidest man alive? Probably not, but he's struggling to earn the title with gems like these:

Lynn Henning breaks down the National League - 4/4/05

Excerpt:

"2. Ryan Klesko, San Diego: Good left-handed bat for an American
League contender in the stretch drive."

Well, if Henning had taken the time to think before writing this, he would have realized a few things: 1) Klesko has a no-trade clause, 2) Klesko has stated that he won't wave his no-trade clause, & 3) the Padres are contenders to win the NL West this year.

"Teams on the decline 
2. San Diego: Bad recipe: a chock-a-block big-league roster and not
much on the farm. "

I'll let that one speak for itself.

NL West Division 4/4/05

Excerpt:

"SAN DIEGO PADRES, 2004 RECORD: 87-7, Predicted finish: Third place. 
The problem with the Padres is that they're just plain unimpressive.
They can beat you about as often as you'll beat them. And this year,
that's about what the Padres are staring at: a .500 record.  David
Wells is gone, which could be overcome if the Padres' starters
weren't so otherwise undistinguished. Woody Williams has been added
to the rotation -- he will help -- and Dave Roberts is the new
center fielder. But this team, despite a decent lineup (Ryan Klesko,
Phil Nevin, Brian Giles, Sean Burroughs, etc.), is no threat to the
Giants, and no threat to be much more than a so-so team."

Now, I'm not taking issue with the pick, but rather with the reasoning. Plenty of intelligent people have picked the Padres to finish third. I don't see it happening but reasonable people can disagree. That the Padres are unimpressive is a matter of opinion, though I question what Lynn finds impressive.

If he's going to cite the Padres first week of the season to project victories, he could have at least used RS:RA. There's at least some logic to that approach. I wonder if he thought the Mets would finish 0-162 after their first five games.

David Wells is gone, granted (do look at his performance so far in this young season, though). The Padres' starters are undistinguished? What about that Peavy guy, you know the one who won the ERA title last year? No mention. Also, Woody Williams is no better than the third-best pitcher on this year's staff. That's some awesome analysis.

Also, Henning drops a backhanded compliment on the lineup and lists Burroughs but not Nady, Hernanez or Greene (all of whom are bigger offensive threats than Sean).

I'm aware I'm picking on a nobody (hey, I'm nobody, too), but it just grates on me to see such blatant stupidity being disseminated.

Rained Out!

I was all situated infront of the television with my snack and beverage waiting for the game to start when they announced the game had been cancelled. I guess I'll have to watch tomorrow's game on the replay.

Eaton Out-duels Dempster

Neither pitching staff allowed an earned run, but the Padres picked up a run in the sixth when Giles scored on a Ramon Hernandez groundball to the second baseman. Eaton was phenomenal. He allowed only four hits over six innings and walked none while striking out three. His Cub counterpart, Dempster, was also on his A-game allowing only a single, unearned run on a ground out. Not to take anything away from today's pitchers, but the wind was blowing in this morning and balls that might have been home runs turned into outs.

Today's Game: Padres (3-3) @ Cubs (3-3)

First Pitch @ 11:20 AM PST

Pitching Matchup
CHC: RHP Ryan Dempster
0-1, 3.2 IP, 3.27 WHIP, 17.18 ERA, 2.33 K/BB in 2005
5-9, 146.2 IP, 1.69 WHIP, 6.15 ERA, 1.35 K/BB Established Performance Level
0-1, 1.0 IP, 3.00 WHIP, 9.00 ERA, 1K:0BB vs. SD in 2004

SD: RHP Adam Eaton
0-0, 4.2 IP, 1.71 WHIP, 5.79 ERA, 3.50 K/BB in 2005
10-13, 192.2 IP, 1.30 WHIP, 4.40 ERA, 2.61 K/BB Established Performance Level
1-1, 10.0 IP, 1.70 WHIP, 9.90 ERA, 2.67 K/BB vs. CHC in 2004

Dempster v. Current Padres
Opposing hitter	AB	H	HR	BB	K	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Geoff Blum	31	9	0	3	4	.290	.353	.323	.676
Brian Giles	26	12	2	5	3	.462	.548	.885	1.433
Ryan Klesko	20	9	1	4	4	.450	.542	.650	1.192
Phil Nevin	19	4	0	2	4	.211	.286	.211	.496
Mark Loretta	10	2	1	2	3	.200	.333	.600	.933
Sean Burroughs	3	0	0	0	1	.000	.000	.000	.000
Mark Sweeney	1	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	.000
Ramon Hernandez	1	1	0	0	0	1.000	1.000	1.000	2.000
Adam Hyzdu	1	1	0	0	0	1.000	1.000	1.000	2.000
Khalil Greene	1	1	0	0	0	1.000	1.000	1.000	2.000

Eaton v. Current Cubs
Opposing hitter	AB	H	HR	BB	K	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Neifi Perez	21	6	1	2	2	.286	.348	.476	.824
Jeromy Burnitz	17	8	0	1	3	.471	.500	.706	1.206
Todd Walker	17	8	1	2	3	.471	.526	.824	1.350
Todd Hollandsworth	16	9	2	3	0	.563	.632	1.063	1.694
Aramis Ramirez	10	3	1	1	3	.300	.364	.700	1.064
Derrek Lee	7	2	2	0	0	.286	.286	1.143	1.429
Corey Patterson	7	2	0	2	1	.286	.444	.571	1.016
Jose Macias	6	1	0	0	1	.167	.167	.167	.333
Henry Blanco	4	0	0	0	1	.000	.000	.000	.000
Michael Barrett	3	0	0	0	1	.000	.000	.000	.000
Nomar Garciaparra	2	1	1	1	0	.500	.667	2.000	2.667

Weekly: State of the Division

Current Standings
Team	W	L	GB
Los Angeles	4	2	-
San Francisco	4	2	-
San Diego	3	3	1
Arizona	3	3	1
Colorado	1	4	2.5

Expected Standings [RS/(RS+RA)]
Team	W	L	GB
Los Angeles	4	2	-
San Francisco	3	3	1
San Diego	3	3	1
Arizona	3	3	1
Colorado	2	3	1.5

Projected End-of-Season Standings [RS/(RS+RA)]
Team	W	L	GB
Los Angeles	95	67	-
San Diego	94	68	1
San Francisco	82	80	13
Arizona	75	87	20
Colorado	64	98	31

Redding Loses Despite 0 ER Performance

The Padres lost 6-3 despite allowing only two earned runs. Tim Redding was tagged to the loss after a Khalil Greene throwing error cost the right-hander four unearned runs in the fourth inning. Even with the tough loss, Padre fans can take solace in knowing that the 5th spot in the starting rotation is in good hands. Redding now owns a WHIP of 1.31 and ERA of 0.00 in 5.1 innings of work this year. Aside from Greene's 4-run error, today's other major disappointment was Ramon Hernandez's grounding into a double play with the bases loaded in the eighth, which killed what hope remained for the Padres.

Today's big numbers are 4 & 11 as in Unearned Runs and Runners Left On-Base. The Padres, again, squandered excellent pitching performances by failing both in the field and at the dish.

And another thing, was Khalil Greene's going 0-4 at the plate, being picked off at first base and making a costly throwing error merely an off-night or the beginning of a prolonged sophomore slump? I maintain my belief that Khalil will have a good year, but today's game has me considering that I may be wrong.

Today's Game: Padres (3-2) vs. Pirates (1-4)

First Pitch @ 1:05 PM PST

Pitching Matchup
PIT: LHP Dave Williams
2-4, 52.2 IP, 1.26 WHIP, 4.49, 1.94 K/BB Established Performance Level
0-0, 2.2 IP, 0.75 WHIP, 0.00 ERA, 0.00 K/BB vs. SD in 2004


SD: RHP Tim Redding
0-0, 0.1 IP, 0.00 WHIP, 0.00 ERA, 0.00 K/BB in 2005
6-9, 121.1 IP, 1.55 WHIP, 4.99 ERA, 0.81 K/BB Established Performance Level
0-0, 8.1 IP, 1.92 WHIP, 6.48 ERA, 0.75 K/BB vs. PIT in 2004

Today's game is the first start for both Williams and Redding. Neither pitcher's statistics offer much insight into anything other than why they are #5 starters. It is my expectation that the Padres will continue to hit this afternoon and will be able to take the series from the Pirates. I also expect the Pirates to continue to struggle at the dish even against Redding. Tim's getting a fresh start and he's looking to do something with it. I think we'll see a more effective Tim Redding than Astros' Fans saw last season. Look for a return to 2003 numbers in pitcher-friendly PetCo Park.

Redding vs. Current Pirates
Opposing hitter	AB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jack Wilson	21	.381	.409	.429	.838
Craig Wilson	18	.333	.333	.444	.778
Rob Mackowiak	8	.000	.333	.000	.333
Tike Redman	4	.250	.400	.250	.650.
Ty Wigginton	4	.000	.200	.000	.200
Jason Bay	4	.250	.250	.500	.750
Benito Santiago	3	.000	.250	.000	.250
Daryle Ward	3	.667	.750	1.667	2.417
Matt Lawton	2	.500	.667	.500	1.000
Humberto Cota	2	.500	.500	.500	1.000
Bobby Hill	2	.000	.000	.000	.000
David Ross	2	.000	.000	.000	.000
Freddy Sanchez	2	.000	.000	.000	.000

Williams vs. Current Padres
Opposing hitter	AB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Mark Loretta	7	.286	.286	.429	.714
Ryan Klesko	3	.667	.667	1.000	1.667
Phil Nevin	2	.500	.667	1.000	1.667
Sean Burroughs	2	.000	.000	.000	.000
Brian Giles	1	.000	.000	.000	.000
Ramon Hernandez	1	.000	.000	.000	.000
Khalil Greene	1	.000	.000	.000	.000

Nevin, Nady Power Friars Past Bucs

Xavier Nady and Phil Nevin provided everything Woody Williams would need and more as the San Diego Padres decimated the visiting Pittsburgh Pirates 11-3. Woody provided six strong innings allowing three Runs on five Hits and one Walk. Woody looked almost as good as he did against the Bucs last year as he held the visitors to only one base-runner per inning and struck out five more than he walked. Tonight's solid outting reduced Williams' atrocious season ERA from 16.20 to a merely ugly 8.68. Behind Williams, Scott Linebrink, Akinori Otsuka and Darrell May each provided a scoreless frame.

Nady's 3-run bomb was his third homerun of the season and has left this Padre fan asking, "Dave Who?" Nady's numbers five games into the season are gaudy. .444/.524/1.111 is outstanding even this early. For the simple-arithmetic-impaired, that's an OPS of 1.635, which for those who don't pay attention to baseball statisics is damn good. Nevin, who had been struggling at home (1 for 10), put the Padres up for good in the fifth inning when he slammed the 13th pitch of the inning over the centerfield wall for a three-run homerun.

Tonight's Game: Padres (2-2) vs. Pirates (1-3)

First Pitch @ 7:05 PST

Pitching Matchup
PIT: LHP Oliver Perez
0-1, 5.0 IP, 1.60 WHIP, 10.80 ERA, 2.00 K/BB in 2005
1-1, 9.1 IP, 1.61 WHIP, 1.93 ERA, 1.38 K/BB vs. SD in 2004

SD: RHP Woody Williams
0-0, 3.1 IP, 3.00 WHIP, 16.20 ERA, 0.00 K/BB in 2005
1-0, 6.0 IP, 1.33 WHIP, 0.00 ERA, 3.00 K/BB vs. PIT in 2004

Tonight's game features two opening day starters that struggled badly in their first starts, Gregory Scott Williams for the Padres and Oliver Perez Martinez for the Pirates. Woody checks in with a 16.20 ERA and Ollie with a 10.80. Neither ERA is particularly representative with Established Performance Levels of a 3.90 ERA for Perez and a 3.80 ERA for Williams respectively.