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Tuesday, August 02, 2005

Demoting Stauffer, Keeping Astacio: The Right Move?

Title Track

I didn't think so. I may have been wrong. The numbers would certainly suggest that.

Annoyed by the decision, I set out to prove my position assured that the stats would back me up. It was quickly apparent that they don't. Just look at their median starting lines.

Stauffer: 6.0 IP, 7 H, 3.5 R, 1 HR, 2 BB, 3 K
Astacio: 6.0 IP, 6.5 H, 2 R, 1 HR, 1 BB, 3.5 K

Same innings, fewer hits, fewer runs, same home runs, fewer walks and more strikeouts. It looks to be a slam dunk. The only thing left to check was luck (BABIP). Their median BABIP is roughly the same (.290 to .292) and on average, Astacio has actually suffered worse luck. The only argument remaining is that Stauffer is more likely to improve. He probably is, but Astacio looks like he gives you a better chance to win right now and we need to win right now. Let Tim improve with Portland until he gets the call in September.

6 Comments:

Blogger Geoff said...

Does this include Astacio's numbers with Texas?

1:25 PM, August 02, 2005  
Blogger Richard B. Wade said...

It does.

4:48 PM, August 02, 2005  
Blogger Peter said...

My buddy Paul and I were discussing this... I'm surprised. Good research. Very Jamesian if I may say, asking a question and doing the research rather than just doing the research to prove an assumption.

9:27 PM, August 02, 2005  
Blogger LynchMob said...

Richard, Jonathan @ pdxbeavers.com has info about Burroughs' double ... http://www.pdxbeavers.com/forums/read.php?f=1&i=2122&t=2121

9:45 PM, August 02, 2005  
Blogger Lance Richardson said...

Jeff Burroughs came out of retirement and hit a double?!?

6:16 AM, August 03, 2005  
Blogger Richard B. Wade said...

Thanks to Peter and Howard.

11:32 AM, August 03, 2005  

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