Demoting Stauffer, Keeping Astacio: The Right Move?

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I didn't think so. I may have been wrong. The numbers would certainly suggest that.

Annoyed by the decision, I set out to prove my position assured that the stats would back me up. It was quickly apparent that they don't. Just look at their median starting lines.

Stauffer: 6.0 IP, 7 H, 3.5 R, 1 HR, 2 BB, 3 K
Astacio: 6.0 IP, 6.5 H, 2 R, 1 HR, 1 BB, 3.5 K

Same innings, fewer hits, fewer runs, same home runs, fewer walks and more strikeouts. It looks to be a slam dunk. The only thing left to check was luck (BABIP). Their median BABIP is roughly the same (.290 to .292) and on average, Astacio has actually suffered worse luck. The only argument remaining is that Stauffer is more likely to improve. He probably is, but Astacio looks like he gives you a better chance to win right now and we need to win right now. Let Tim improve with Portland until he gets the call in September.