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Sunday, August 07, 2005

Phil Nevin isn't Done?

Title Track

hank commented at San Diego Spotlight:
[T]he baltimore failed trade(and the leaking of the trade to the press prior to being confirmed) essentially mandated trading Nevin. Nevin is NOT an aging slugger that has lost his skills and I wish folks would quit saying that. Towers wanted a pitcher and thought that Ponson might do the job. If he had talked to Nevin before it leaked, this trade might never have been announced or would have been reported as simply “discussion". Once it became public and Nevin would not waive his no trade power, Towers was forced to trade Nevin anyway he could to put the distraction to rest. Just my opinion.
(emphasis added)

I could not disagree more. Phil Nevin is almost certainly an average to below average hitter (pitcher's stats included). He is definitely a below average to well below average hitting first baseman and while some may disagree, he is also a below average defensive first baseman.

At the age of 30, Phil Nevin peaked with a Davenport Translated ISO (used to account for the move to PetCo) of .285. The next year was marred by injury. The next year, at 32, Phil posted an ISO of .217 and followed it up with a .209 in '04. This season, Phil has completely collapsed with an ISO of .163. That's his lowest since his injury plagued campaign of 2003 and if you omit that, his worst performance since 1998.

As with his ISO, Nevin's AB/HR rate also peaked in 2000. This year, though, his AB/HR is even worse than 2001 and is actually his worst since his rookie year.

PECOTA gave Phil a Collapse Rate of 35.5% and sadly it appears to have been generous.

Phil Nevin was very good for part of his career as a Padre. In 2001 (his best year as a professional), he was one of the top 20 hitters in baseball and among the top 3 hitting third baseman. He also amassed a 10.1 WARP3, which is simply fantastic (an MVP caliber number). However, he is no longer among the top 20 hitters in the game and he is no longer playing an above average third base. Nevin is, for lack of a better word, done.


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