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Tuesday, May 31, 2005

No Weaknesses? No Way.

Title Track

An article in the Union Tribune today said that the Padres lack any major weaknesses and that we shouldn't expect a trade. I found it unlikely, so I looked up the Padres BA/OBP/SLG by position and then compared it to the League Average at each position. I'm already confident that the rotation and bullpen are well above league average (see my BtB post).

San Diego is above league average of all three rate statistics at Catcher, Center Field and Right Field. We are also above league average for OBP/SLG at Short Stop & Left Field.

At First and Third Base, San Diego is below league average for all three rate statisitcs. In case you're wondering, Geoff Blum isn't the answer to the Padres' lack of production at third.

At second base, we have an OBP .016 over league average, but that fails to make up for the .089 deficit in slugging percentage.

Nothing earth-shattering, but there's an ugly chart still in production. Check back for an ugly chart.

Update: I finished the chart. PowerPoint insisted on using six different colors, so I "fixed" the chart in Graphic Converter. Oh, and a version of the chart that's big enough to read is available here. And now for comparison's sake, you can see the Cardinals' lineup given the same treatment only with blinding red and blue instead of black and white here.

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Monday, May 30, 2005

Padres Win 21 in May (one still to go)

NL West Race

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Khalil Made the Play of the Game

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Question

Should I drop the Rockies from future NL West Divison Race graphs? Thanks.

Beyond the Boxscore

Title Track

I recently posted my first contribution at Beyond the Boxscore. You can see it at this link.

Dave Roberts

Dave Roberts has quickly become my favorite player to watch. He has one of the ugliest swings I've ever seen and a career OBP of about .335, but that doesn't matter. Even his 62% success rate on stolen bases doesn't bother me. When Dave Roberts plays, the Padres win. When he doesn't, they don't. My first place Padres are 7-9 without the fleet-footed centerfielder and an astounding 24-10 with him. For those without either the ability to do simple math or a calculator, those are winning percentages of .438 and .706 respectively. These results can no doubt be traced to something else, but I'll be damned if I'm going to do that. It's all Dave Roberts all the time. I can assure you that these are not small sample size results, Dave Roberts is a baseball god. A Dave Roberts led Padre team can be assured of winning 114 games over a 162 game season, while a Roberts free Friar squad would be lucky to make it to 71 wins. You'll just have to trust me on this.

Update: I actually went through the trouble of looking up the Dodgers' and Red Sox' records with and without Roberts last year. Here they are:

















Further Proof, DR = Winning Machine
Team-Monthw/Robertsw/o Roberts
LAN-Apr14-60-2
LAN-May5-18-12
LAN-Jun9-124-2
LAN-Jul18-43-3
LAN-Aug-Oct 32-27
LAN-Total46-2347-46
BOS-Apr-Jul 56-46
BOS-Aug16-35-4
BOS-Sep18-40-6
BOS-Oct3-10-0
BOS-Total37-861-56
Reg. Season83-31108-102
Playoffs3-07-6


I was kidding earlier, but now I almost believe it.

Dodger W% w/DR = .667; Dodger W% w/o DR = .505; Red Sox W% w/DR = .822; Red Sox W% w/o DR = .521.

Their combined Regular Season W% w/DR = .728; w/o = .514.

Playoffs 1.000 to .538.

Overall: .735 to .516.

NL West Contender Rotations by VORP












Padre Rotation
NameVORP
Jake Peavy28.4
Adam Eaton9.4
Tim Stauffer4.6
Brian Lawrence3.9
Woody Williams3.3
Tim Redding-13.4
SDN Rotation36.2
SDN Top 549.6














Dodger Rotation
NameVORP
Derek Lowe13.6
Brad Penny10.1
Odalis Perez5.3
Elmer Dessens1.7
Derek Thompson1.2
Jeff Weaver-1.9
Scott Erickson-6.4
LAN Rotation23.6
LAN Top 531.9













Giant Rotation
NameVORP
Brett Tomko11.1
Kirk Rueter7.1
Brad Hennessey1.9
Jason Schmidt1.7
Noah Lowry0.0
Jerome Williams-1.5
SFN Rotation20.3
SFN Top 521.8












Diamondback Rotation
NameVORP
Javier Vazquez15.7
Brandon Webb14.5
Shawn Estes11.9
Brad Halsey4.4
Russ Ortiz1.9
ARI Rotation48.4
ARI Top 548.4

NL West Contender Bullpens by VORP














Padre Bullpen
NameVORP
Rudy Seanez9.7
Chris Hammond8.9
Scott Linebrink7.7
Trevor Hoffman5.0
Akinori Otsuka2.6
Dennys Reyes0.7
Brian Falkenborg-0.1
Darrell May-0.7
SDN Bullpen34.5
SDN Top 634.6
















Dodger Bullpen
NameVORP
Duaner Sancehz6.8
Yhency Brazoban1.9
Kelly Wunsch1.5
Wilson Alvarez1.5
Eric Gagne0.7
Giovanni Carrara0.4
Steve Schmoll-0.9
D.J. Houlton-4.1
Buddy Carlyle-4.3
LAN Bullpen3.5
LAN Top 612.8

















Giant Bullpen
NameVORP
Scott Eyre5.0
Jeff Fassero3.4
Tyler Walker2.9
Matt Herges2.1
Jason Christiansen1.14
Scott Munter0.4
Jeremy Accardo-0.8
Al Levin-0.9
Armando Benitez-1.2
Jim Brower-1.9
SFN Bullpen10.4
SFN Top 615.2


















Diamondback Bullpen
NameVORP
Lance Cormier10.8
Brandon Lyon3.4
Brian Bruney1.5
Oscar Villarreal-0.3
Mike Koplove-1.1
Jose Valverde-1.8
Mike Gosling-2.6
Randy Choate-2.6
Greg Aquino-3.4
Javier Lopez-4.4
Kerry Ligtenberg-10.6
ARI Bullpen-11.1
ARI Top 612.5

Sunday, May 29, 2005

Maybe I'm Missing Something...

Sports Illustrated
I just finished reading Tom Verducci's article, "Baseball's Incredible Shrinking Slugger," and I've obviously missed something. Verducci asserts that since there has been a "decline in power," guys like Craig Counsell, David Eckstein, Juan Pierre, Scott Podsednik and Ichiro Suzuki "are more valuable." This may be true to an extent. If there's fewer guys hitting doubles, you may have to go get guys who can steal second base. However, it would seem to me that the guys who should see their value climb are the ones who can still hit home runs. Or maybe I'm just missing something.

Damian Jackson
Has this guy been good, or what? He has been playing excellent defense. I was just discussing this with my dad a few minutes ago and he asked why we ever got rid of him in the first place. I couldn't remember, so I went to Baseball Reference to check. Apparently we traded Damian along with Matt Walbeck to Detroit for Javier Cardona and Rich Gomez. In case you can't remember, it wasn't a great trade for anyone.

Cardona was good for a WARP1 of -0.3 in his only season with the Friars (Gomez never made it to the show). Walbeck managed an ugly -1.9 WARP1 over two seasons and DJ proved the only positive contributor traded with a WARP1 of 1.0 in one season in Detroit.

Monday, May 23, 2005

Loretta to Undero Surgery

Geoff Young at Ducksnorts has already collected the meaningful links on the subject.

Obviously this is bad, but it doesn't have to be as bad as Bochy is going to make it. Geoff Blum and Damian Jackson will split time at second in place of Loretta (unless there is a trade, which I rather doubt). That's making things worse than they have to be. Geoff Blum is one of the worst second baseman I have ever seen. He doesn't kick the ball or make bad throws. He doesn't get a chance to. The man has no range. None. Also, Damian Jackson is a miserable hitter even if he is half decent fielder. He's a career .243/.324/.357 hitter past his prime.

Well, who else do we have that can play second base? Do we have someone that can play the vacated position? To answer the first question, Sean Burroughs. In response to the second, yes. Xavier Nady is supposedly capable of playing third base. Even if he can't, he can't be as bad a third baseman as Blum is a second baseman and X can rake.

Update: I neglected to mention the call-up this will necessitate. I'm holding out hope that Bobby Scales will be the one asked to fill in for Loretta.

The Batting Order

Jay (over at Ducksnorts) got me thinking about who should be in the everyday lineup. Based on actual batting statistics and PECOTA projections (subscription required), the starters should be:

C Ramon Hernandez
SS Khalil Greene
2B Mark Loretta
CF Xavier Nady
3B Sean Burroughs
RF Brian Giles
LF Ryan Klesko
1B Mark Sweeney


Batting order based on (75th Percentile) PECOTA Projections:











Pos, NameBAOBPSLG
2B, Mark Loretta.306.373.443
3B, Sean Burroughs.292.358.409
RF, Brian Giles.299.411.519
LF, Ryan Klesko.294.394.493
1B, Mark Sweeney.273.371.486
CF, Xavier Nady.284.345.476
SS, Khalil Greene.276.345.454
C, Ramon Hernandez.273.346.440


Batting order based on Actual Batting Stats:











Pos, NameBAOBPSLG
2B, Mark Loretta.300.388.344
3B, Sean Burroughs.272.344.301
RF, Brian Giles.272.412.483
LF, Ryan Klesko.270.383.518
1B, Mark Sweeney.318.434.523
C, Ramon Hernandez.301.338.459
CF, Xavier Nady.264.324.409
SS, Khalil Greene.225.312.380


Oh and if you insist on running out the "opening day lineup," the order should look like this (actual stats):











Pos, NameBAOBPSLG
2B, Mark Loretta.300.388.344
3B, Sean Burroughs.272.344.301
RF, Brian Giles.272.412.483
LF, Ryan Klesko.270.383.518
C, Ramon Hernandez.301.338.459
CF, Dave Roberts.257.341.413
SS, Khalil Greene.225.312.380
1B, Phil Nevin.244.282.399


or (projections):











Pos, NameBAOBPSLG
2B, Mark Loretta.306.373.443
CF, Dave Roberts.291.362.376
RF, Brian Giles.299.411.519
LF, Ryan Klesko.294.394.493
1B, Phil Nevin.279.354.464
SS, Khalil Greene.276.345.454
C, Ramon Hernandez.273.346.440
3B, Sean Burroughs.292.358.409


Now, you have to wonder why Nevin is starting over Sweeney and Roberts over Nady. It seems obvious in both cases. Phil Nevin is being paid $9.00 M and Sweeney is being paid only $0.58 M (figures from Hardball Dollars). As for Roberts over Nady, which is only a $0.85 M difference, I think you have to look no further than this (from San Diego Padres Transactions:

12/20/04 Acquired OF Dave Roberts from Boston for OF Jay Payton, IF Ramon Vasquez, P David Pauley and cash.


Those are terrible reasons for starting one guy over another, but it doesn't seem likely to change any time soon.

Saturday, May 21, 2005

How Do You Spell Dominant? P-E-A-V-Y

Jake Peavy's line last night: 7.0 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 10 SO, 0 HR.

Although we've become accustomed to Peavy putting up numbers like that every fifth day, sometimes you need to just appreciate what he's done. Ten strikeouts to only one walk. That's incredible. For the season, he's striking out 5.92 batters per one that he walks. Jake's BB/9 rate is 1.71 and K/9 rate is 10.14. Also, with seven scoreless innings last night, he dropped his ERA to 2.29 and moved his record on the year to 4-0 (the Padres are 8-1 in games Peavy starts).

Thursday, May 19, 2005

Down on the Farm: Advanced-A Lake Elsinore

Brief statistical analysis of Advanced-A Lake Elsinore's pitching (complete with HR/9, though virtually no commentary on that stat, as I'm not sure what's good... Peter?):
















Lake Elsinore Pitching
NameIPKBBHRK/9BB/9K/BBHR/9
Jared Wells44.333746.701.424.710.81
Chris Tierney41.7202314.324.960.870.22
Arturo Lopez38.7301736.984.951.760.70
Javier Martinez36.7301197.362.702.732.21
Eddie Bonine26.3211037.193.422.101.03
Dirk Hayhurst2318727.042.742.570.78
Paul Abraham22.022409.001.645.500.00
Howard Pence21.0101214.295.140.830.43
Wilmer Villatoro20.7239110.003.912.560.43
Leonel Rosales16.7225111.862.694.400.54
Clark Girardeau10.36205.241.753.000.00
Ryan Trytten5.066010.8010.801.000.00


The players who jump out at you immediately are Paul Abraham and Leonel Rosales. Both have outstanding K rates, BB rates and K:BB ratios. Unfortunately 22.0 & 16.7 IP are very small sample sizes (even smaller than 44.3!). Perhaps more unfortunate is that the players are ages 25 & 23, yet they're playing Advanced-A ball.

Jared Wells, who has pitched the most innings, also has a fantastic strikeout to walk ratio at 4.71. However, Wells is doing it with a mediocre K/9 and an absolutely sick 1.42 BB/9 rate. It's impressive, but you'd really like to see the Ks.

Martinez, 28, Bonine, 23, Hayhurst, 24, Villatoro, 23, and Girardeau, 23, also managed twice as many strikeouts as walks. However, none were particularly spectacular and one would hope for better numbers from players of their ages playing High-A.

Arturo Lopez and Chris Tierney, the two youngest pitchers at 22 & 21 put up some of the most disappointing numbers of the bunch while logging more innings than all but Jared Wells.

What really bothers me is that a 28 year old who can't strike out so much as one batter per inning, or limit the opposition to 2 home runs per 9 innings pitched is fourth on the team in innings pitched. I'm not sure if there's a legitimate reason for this, but to be honest I can't think of a possible one.

Lake Elsinore's pitching leaves me feeling less than excited. Am I missing anything?

Wednesday, May 18, 2005

Friars Sweep Homestand

Those Streaking Padres

The Padres completed their second consecutive series sweep and fourth of the season. Last season, they managed only three series sweeps in the first half of the year, a mark they have matched this month (with four series remaining). The teams the Padres swept last in the first half of last season were a combined 75 games under .500 at the break. This month's victims have been the NL East leading Braves, the 21-16 Florida Marlins and a young Colorado Rockies team that has averaged 5.5 runs per game against teams not named San Diego Padres in May.

Down on the Farm

I began yesterday by looking at the Portland pitching and today we turn to Double-A Mobile.















Mobile Pitching
NameIPKBBK/9BB/9K/BB
Michael Thompson50.33496.081.613.78
Brian Whitaker43.328165.823.331.75
Jose Oyervidez40.344229.834.912.00
Travis Chick38.038159.003.552.53
Jack Cassel24.315105.563.701.50
Geoffrey Jones21.72058.292.074.00
Natanael Mateo21.01676.863.002.29
Craig Breslow19.31596.994.201.67
Dale Thayer17.716128.146.101.33
Rusty Tucker15.3171310.007.651.31
Sean Thompson5.0335.405.401.00


Now, there's no Germano-type numbers being put up, but Jose Oyervidez and Travis Chick are both showing good power numbers coupled with decent control. Rusty Tucker has even higher strikeout rates, but he is walking an awful 7.65 per 9 innings.

Michael Thompson is showing excellent control with relatively little in the way of K/9. Natanael Mateo is showing solid control with the same uninspired K/9 rate. Geoffrey Jones is approaching a very solid K/9 rate and is doing so with very good control numbers.

The rest are less than exciting.

Your San Diego Padres Have First Place to Themselves

Tuesday, May 17, 2005

Padres Win Sixth Straight Game

Khalil Greene Scores First Padre Run, Drives in Last
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Down on the Farm

I've decided to do a quick statistical analysis of the Padres minor league pitchers. Tonight, I'll start with Triple-A Portland.
















Portland Pitching
NameIPKBBK/9BB/9K/BB
Justin Germano36.03799.252.254.11
Chris Oxspring36.031107.752.503.10
Marty McLeary35.334178.674.332.00
Clay Hensley19.01667.582.842.67
Angel Tovar16.31095.524.971.11
Joe Dawely15.717159.758.601.13
Brad Baker15.717129.756.881.42
Brandon Emanuel14.322613.853.783.67
Danny Patterson11.0453.274.090.80
Michael Bumstead10.0746.303.601.75
Roger Deago8.7555.175.171.00
RD Spiehs6.3537.144.291.67


Justin Germano has been absolutely fantastic. A K to BB ratio of over two is considered good and your top-tier talent guys should be striking out three times as many as they walk. Four to one is very, very good and he's doing it while punching out more than a batter per inning. If that's not enough to make you happy today, he's only 22.

Chris Oxspring and Clay Hensley are both showing very good control posting sub-3.00 BB/9. They've been so stingy with the free passes that bother have K:BB ratios over 2.50 despite pedestrian K/9 rates.

Marty McLeary has been solid. He's striking out nearly one per inning and his BB/9 rate is low enough to maintain a 2.00 K/BB.

Joe Dawley and Brad Baker are both striking out better than a batter per inning, but are also walking everybody. Still, power ratios for minor leaguers are usually more indicative of future success than control numbers.

Brandon Emanuel has an awe-inspiring 13.85 K/9 rate, but has only thrown 14.3 innings this season. It's quite a feat, though.

None of the rest are performing well at all. Overall, not bad, though. I'll be sure to check back when there's actually some real data to look at.

Ladies and Gentlemen, Your First Place Padres!

Cool, Little Graph

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My Poorly Collected Thoughts

How many saves does Hoffman have?
(11:48:31 PM): This year? 12. Career? 405.
(11:49:10 PM): 12 / 14.
(11:49:18 PM): 86%.
(11:49:38 PM): Just off his career save percentage of 89%.
(11:50:15 PM): Eric Gagne's career save percentage is sick.
(11:50:17 PM): 96%.
(11:51:04 PM): He gave up two solo home runs in the only inning he's worked this year, though.
(11:51:46 PM): The Padres are tied for first with the D'Backs.
(11:51:55 PM): LA is 1.5 games back.
(11:52:16 PM): Padres are a sick 10 games over .500 at home.
(11:52:37 PM): That's the best in baseball.
(11:52:59 PM): Atlanta, I think, is second at 8 games over .500 at home.
(11:53:32 PM): I'm going to do a breakdown of that on my blog soon.
(11:53:48 PM): They're outscoring their opponents by an absolute ton from the 7th inning on.
(11:54:36 PM): Over the last ten games, only the Padres have managed an 8-2 mark.
(11:54:50 PM): Pittsburgh, Atlanta and Boston are 7-3 over that time.
(11:54:55 PM): Hottest team in baseball?
(11:55:31 PM): They swept the Marlins.
(11:55:35 PM): The Marlins are very good.
(11:55:58 PM): Too bad Woody's hurt.
(11:56:09 PM): Darrell May is pitching tonight.
(11:56:22 PM): Once Woody comes back, I think the Padres have one of the better rotations in baseball.
(11:56:29 PM): He's supposed to be back next week (or so).
(11:56:56 PM): Hey, if he didn't get hurt we wouldn't be watching Tim Stauffer.
(11:57:25 PM): Padres are 7th in RPI (Relative Power Index).
(11:57:57 PM): Chicago Sox, Baltimore, St. Louis, Atlanta, Washington, LA Dodgers, & then San Diego.
(12:00:15 AM): Padres have been outscored 97 - 131 in the first six innings.
(12:00:33 AM): They bat .250/.321/.396 & their opponents bat .280/.340/.454
(12:01:03 AM): They've outscored their opponents 80-37 after the sixth inning.
(12:01:16 AM): They bat .281/.379/.437 & their opponents bat .198/.278/.310.
(12:01:31 AM): Opponents are batting .198 after the sixth inning.
(12:01:58 AM): The bullpen is nails.
(12:02:16 AM): Phil Nevin is batting .348 after the sixth inning.
(12:02:25 AM): That's about .100 points higher.
(12:02:45 AM): He bats .210 before the seventh.
(12:02:50 AM): .138 higher.
(12:03:33 AM): Klesko and Nady both have Slugging Percentages over .600 after the sixth inning.
(12:03:49 AM): Ryno has hit five of his home runs after the sixth.
(12:04:05 AM): That tells you he has a different approach late in the game.
(12:04:38 AM): If you look at Ryno, he drastically changes his approach.
(12:04:54 AM): In the first six innings, he looks to put the ball in play and to reach base.
(12:05:05 AM): After that, he's trying to rip the cover off the ball.
(12:06:09 AM): .238/.373/.643; .301/.396/.518

His batting average drops .063, his on-base percentage falls .023 points and his Slugging Percentage climbs .125 points.
(12:06:42 AM): That's a difference of .188 in isolated power.
(12:06:46 AM): That's obscene.
(12:07:57 AM): Dave Roberts is the only guy I see who gets much worse later in the game.
(12:08:00 AM): That's odd.
(12:08:13 AM): Mainly since he seems to get all these big game-winning hits.
(12:08:21 AM): The eyes lie.
(12:08:25 AM): That's what stats are for.
(12:09:46 AM): Baseball is great because everything that happens is recorded.
(12:11:28 AM): Stauffer's ERA: 3.46.

Monday, May 16, 2005

Padres Sweep Marlins

I had a fairly lengthy post typed up and then my computer was unceremoniously unplugged (thanks to my dog, Oscar). So, instead of getting that, you get this. Go Padres!

If anyone can find a picture of Mark Grant's shillelagh, please e-mail me or leave a comment. Thank you.

Wednesday, May 11, 2005

Statistical Lineup Comparisons

Look at the Pretty Graphs

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There will be commentary later. Probably. Maybe.

Stauffer Takes the Mound in Rubber Game

You Can't Win Them All...

That's especially true of games in which you manage to group hits in such a way that 12 hits result in one run off of a solo home run. The Cincinnati Reds are a team with minimal infield depth and one of the worst bullpens in baseball. By the fourth inning, they had lost their shortstop and starting pitcher to injuries.

Unfortunately for Padre fans, the Reds had put the game out of reach with a two-run second inning. Two runs was apparently an insurmountable lead today.

Stauffer's Debut

Geoff Young of Duck Snorts has an interesting post on Stauffer's comps. Stauffer is the Padres #5 prospect (according to Baseball America) and his major league debut has been rather eagerly anticipated. Unfortunately tomorrow's game will not be televised. Thank you, Channel 4.

Monday, May 09, 2005

Reds Wanted the "L" More

Padres win 6-5 in 13

On paper, the Padres had no business losing this game. As it turned out, the Padres really had no business winning it.

Fortunately, although they attempted to throw the game away early, the Reds' bullpen would not be denied. Following Aaron Harang's fantastic performance, he handed over a 4 run lead to his bullpen. They promptly went into complete meltdown.

Ryan Klesko homered (he later tried to make it up to them by getting himself thrown out by 90 feet at home plate), Nevin singled, Giles walked, Hernandez singled (DJ pinch ran) and Fick brought them all home with a booming double. Sean Burroughs, who has been inept with the stick lately, attempted to lay down a bunt. He failed, but the Reds would not be outdone as they refused to retire the lead runner.

With men on first and third, the Padres obviously went on to pile up runs with the top of the order coming up, right? Of course not. The Padres, intent on giving this one away, declined to score again until the 13th. Luckily for Padre fans, the Reds bullpen is for lack of a better term "really bad," and not even the impotent Padre offense could stop them from giving up runs.

Somebody should explain to both teams (they can hold off informing the Reds until Thursday) that this is baseball, not golf. The goal is to have the higher run total.

The Positives

Jake Peavy, despite an awful first inning and unfortunate second, pitched well without his best stuff. He combined with the bullpen (which threw 6.2 innings) to shut down the Cincinnati offense for the final eleven innings.

Brian Giles, despite looking lost in right field, contributed at the plate reaching base four out of five plate appearances.

Ryan Klesko, despite getting thrown out at home plate by three football fields, hit his eighth home run and jump-started the Padres' lone offensive outburst in the top of the ninth.

Robert Fick. He has raked lately. If he keeps it up, Damian Jackson will be heading back to Portland when Blum comes off the DL.

In-Game Discussions

If there's anybody reading this blog and not participating in the In-Game Discussions over at Duck Snorts, you need to start. Here's an example of the great stuff you're missing:

Trevor Hoffman, with his 89 percent save percentage is in.

Posted by: Kevin at May 9, 2005 08:15 PM


Caught him looking. One out. (Death)

Posted by: Kevin at May 9, 2005 08:17 PM


Two outs. (Taxes)

Posted by: Kevin at May 9, 2005 08:18 PM


Hoffman with the assist. Three outs. (Hoffman)

Posted by: Kevin at May 9, 2005 08:21 PM


And Another Thing...

How did ESPN decide, following a game in which the Friars overcame a four run deficit in the ninth, to break down the Reds' offensive output in the first inning? The Reds score five runs in the first two innings, are then held scoreless for the next eleven and finally they lose. Obviously, the only thing to do in that situation if you're Baseball Tonight is to ignore the Padres comeback and talk about and analyze the approach of the Reds at the plate in the first inning. It makes perfect sense, really. I'm not sure in what universe, but I'm confident there's one where it makes sense.

The Lineup

All Eight

Tonight's game against Cincinnati will mark the first time this season that the Padres have started all eight of their starters in the same game. It's May 9. To top it off, our young ace, Jake Peavy is pitching tonight. Anything short of a comfortable victory will be a disappointment.

Transactions

Today, the Padres were rather busy. Brian Falkenborg and Tim Stauffer had their contracts purchased from Portland. Stauffer will have his first major league start on Wednesday in place of Darrell May. Tim Redding was placed on the 15-Day Disabled List, while Randy Williams and Jesse Garcia were sent down to Portland. Also, Khalil Greene came off the Disabled List today and will start tonight's game.

Sunday, May 08, 2005

Padres Win 3 of 4 in St. Louis

Tim Redding

Tim Redding appears to have a strained rotator cuff. Fantastic news, huh? Two starting pitchers on the DL in May. I wonder if we'll see Germano or Stauffer? Here's the report on Redding. This, in particular bothered me:

"I felt a real stern pinch in my shoulder but I just kept battling through," Redding said. "I felt discomfort every single day up until the day before yesterday."
"I didn't want to have to miss a start, but it progressively got worse and worse and all of a sudden it just gave out."


I'm glad they let him pitch, then. Why did they let him pitch? This is just too aggravating.

Successful Series

I'm sure today's game has left a bad taste in everyone's mouths, but one can't help but view the series as a huge success. Many Padre fans hoped the Padres would manage a split, and others simply hoped the Padres could avoid being swept. I'd be in the latter category.

Brian Lawrence pitched a fantastic game. Brian Giles came out of his slump in spectacular fashion. Hoffman recorded his 400th (and 401st) save(s). Despite losing Woody Williams to injury, the Padres managed a win with Darrell May as the starter.

Here's hoping the sour note (today's 15-5 thrashing) prevents the Padres from taking their next opponent lightly.

Momentous Occasion

Matt Bush drew a walk.

BP Basics

It occurs to me that not everyone has read the Baseball Prospectus Basics. If you haven't, you really should.

Saturday, May 07, 2005

Clever Title Still Under Development

Uni-Watch... heh

This is a crack-up. Here's the Padre-related excerpt:

The Padres' caps had the New Era logo on the left side, a designation that normally appears only on minor-league and, umm, "fashion" headwear.

Friday, May 06, 2005

"Hi everybody!"

Baseball Crank

Somehow I found this rather interesting post by the Crank from last April. I was looking for info on WARP3 (still haven't found anything) and every other google result is the Crank.

Barry's Knee

Image hosted by Photobucket.com

This is hilarious, I must say.

Defense Independent Pitching Stats & Curses

Who is that guy with the 6.21 DIPS?

Predictions

Made by DVM in 98
May 4, 2005 7:44 PM
I have a sneaking suspicion [Brian Giles] will get about 5 or 6 hits this weekend, including a dinger.

Good call, DVM.

Thursday, May 05, 2005

Padres Work up a Number 6 on the Red Birds

The Curse

The "Curse of Kournikova," it can be safely be said, is over. Brian Giles went four for five with a home run and five runs batted in as he propelled the Friars to an 8-3 win. Brian Lawrence worked 6.2 innings, but did not figure in the decision, nor did his opposite, Morris. It should be interesting to see if Bochy leaves Giles in the fifth spot of the lineup following tonight's success. I rather hope he does.

Power 30

Dan Scotto, Beyond the Box Score, has an interesting take on MLB Power Rankings. Here's his take on the Padres:

18. Padres (High rank: #16, by Pythagenport, SI.com, Low rank: #22, by Sportsline): This is the type of team that makes me question if I should park adjust my method. But they're right in line with the other ones and the standard deviation's low. They've underachieved so far at .500, but they've won 3 straight. Stay tuned.


Stats Say What You Want Them to Say

Since August 26, 2004 no other pitcher in Major League Baseball has had as many strikeouts as Jake Peavy.

Wednesday, May 04, 2005

Tim Redding's Coming Out Party

Tim Redding

Tim Redding gave a fanatastic performance last night. Check out the discussion over at Ducksnorts. Most interesting (in my opinion) is my batter-by-batter expected runs watch.

Woody Williams

Williams is out with an oblique injury. He was placed on the 15-Day Disabled List. LHP Randy Williams has been recalled from Portland and will take Darrell May's place in the bullpen. Darrell May, obviously, will make Woody's start(s). Padre Press Release.

Geoff Blum

Congratulations to Blum whose wife gave birth to triplets last night.

Tuesday, May 03, 2005

I Finally Read Moneyball & Other Items of Less Importance

On MoneyBall

It was a good read. The only part I didn't particularly enjoy was the time spent on Bill James. I suppose part of that is because of my prior knowledge of James, but it was awfully dry. Beane is an interesting character and I couldn't help becoming (more) a fan of his. Perhaps most importantly, the book confirmed (to me) my suspicion that Paul DePodesta is a witch. I still can't figure out (mathematically) how he figures that OBP is three times as important as SLG (especially when SLG seems to correlate more strongly with Runs than OBP), but who am I to disagree with a witch. If anyone else has managed to go as long as I have without reading MoneyBall, they should definitely pick it up. I read it in one night.

Curse of Ismael Valdez?

From the Union Tribune: Rotation's rough spot? Padres will plead fifth


Bill Center's article in today's UT comes complete with Ismael Valdez's Win-Loss record. Am I the only one who gets physically ill when some idiot points out dismal Valdez's W% as though one can discern anything other than, "Valdez is one lucky SOB," from it?

Ismael Valdez is not very good (2004 VORP: 5.9, an amazing 286th among MLB pitchers). Travis Chick may be the best pitching prospect in our farm system. That's a good trade. Get over it. Seriously, just get over it. Please.

As an aside, the search for VORP somehow resulted in me creating a spreadsheet that finds Marginal Lineup Value when you plug in a player's BA, OBP & SLG. It probably wasn't worth my time, but it's a little late for realizing that.

Giles Trade Check-Up (2)

Padre fans seemed so fascinated by the trade that sent Jason Bay & Oliver Perez to the Pirates for Brian Giles, that I thought I'd provide a service. That service is going to come in the form of a regular check-up like the one below.






Batting Stats
NameABHTBBBBASecAOBPSLG
Jason Bay94284711.298.375.371.500
Brian Giles88172922.193.443.348.364






Pitching Stats
NameWLIPWHIPERAK/BB
Oliver Perez1331.21.867.111.22


Since the last check-up, Jason Bay has exploded and Giles has slumped. Ollie Perez has continued to be unimpressive, however. Try to remember where they play, though. Ollie and Bay are in a hitter's division and Giles in a pitcher's division (as far as ballparks).

Speaking of Pitching Stats

Something about ERA rubs me the wrong way. That in mind I was looking for something different. I think I like what I've come up with in Runs Created Average (RCA). I sort of assume this already exists, but I haven't seen it anywhere else.

Simple Formula: On-Base Percentage * Total Bases / Innings Pitched * 9

I feel like it takes away some of the luck inherent in ERA. Maybe I'm wrong, but I'm not terribly worried. If anyone has thoughts, I'd like to hear them.

Sunday, May 01, 2005

April Wrapup

It is no longer "only April." Thank God. And with the conclusion of April, I've decided to put together a short analysis of the numbers that made up the month.

Scoring:
Padres Mean: 4.375
Padres Median: 3
Padres Range: 14
Opponent Mean: 4.375
Opponent Median: 3.5
Opponent Range: 12

From the mean you get the impression that the Padres should be .500(12-12), but it would seem that the Median paints a different picture (10-14). The truth lies in between as the Padres are an underwhelming 11-13.

Team Leaders for April (based on 3.1 PA per game played):

R: Mark Loretta (15)
RBI: Phil Nevin (20)
HR: Phil Nevin (5)
SB: Mark Loretta (6)

BA: Sean Burroughs (.319)
OBP: Sean Burroughs (.392)
SLG: Xavier Nady (.493)
OPS: Ryan Klesko (.855)

RC: Mark Loretta (15.2)
RC27: Ryan Klesko (6.62)
BB/K: Mark Loretta (1.33)
IsoP: Xavier Nady (.246)
SecA: Brian Giles (.464)
AB/HR: Xavier Nady (17.3)











Padre Regulars (April)
NameRC27RankOPSRank
Ramon Hernandez4.815 of 11.7932 of 11
Phil Nevin4.159 of 12.72010 of 12
Mark Loretta5.616 of 12.7197 of 12
Sean Burroughs6.587 of 13.76910 of 13
Ryan Klesko6.626 of 13.8555 of 13
Xavier Nady5.545 of 13.8174 of 13
Brian Giles4.7511 of 14.74210 of 14


More a little later...