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Thursday, April 28, 2005

Quick Analysis of Padre Regulars

The Padres, thus far, have been dreadful on offense. The players most frequently blamed are Klesko, Giles, Nevin and Burroughs.

If people would invest only a small amount of effort in scrutinizing the readily available data, they would notice that one player on the list (Klesko) does not belong and that a more deserving Padre (Loretta) has been omitted.

Giles, Burroughs, Loretta and Nevin all find themselves in the bottom half of their position when it comes to RC27 (Runs Created). Only Klesko, LF, Nady, CF, and Hernandez, C, managed to crack the top half of the list at their positions.

Padre Regulars through 4/27/05
NameRCRC27Rank (of 102)Rank by Pos.
Ryan Klesko14.26.87224 of 14
Xavier Nady11.36.23314 of 13
Brian Giles13.15.53508 of 14
Sean Burroughs8.35.235910 of 13
Mark Loretta12.24.90628 of 12
Ramon Hernandez10.24.68664 of 10
Phil Nevin10.23.997610 of 13

Is Anyone on the Padres Consistent?

Well, there's Peavy:

Peavy's Consistency

Sadly, he's it.

Wednesday, April 27, 2005

What do you think about the execution of your team?

In the immortal words of John Mckay, "I'm all for it." Padres lose 10-3 today. Something needs to change. Quickly.

Tuesday, April 26, 2005

Weekly State of the Division (3)

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Current Standings
Los Angeles136-
San Diego9114.5
San Francisco8115

Expected Standings
Los Angeles127-
San Diego1191.5
San Francisco9113.5

Projected End-of-Season Standings
Los Angeles10161-
San Diego867615
San Francisco738928

New Favorite Toy

Correlation Coefficients

As you can see here, I've been known to waste time not only looking at baseball statistics, but also tearing them apart trying to figure out their value.

The purpose of the game is to score runs, of course. However, Runs scored and Runs Batted In are both dependent on the performance batting in front of and behind the hitter who's R & RBI totals are being evaluated. How, then, do we determine which statistics best measure the ability to put runs on the board?

Well, the solution I've decided on is correlation coefficients. So far, I've found the correlation coefficients of ten statistics to Runs scored by team in the year 2004. Below is a table.

Correlation Coefficients

Monday, April 25, 2005

There's a Game Tonight, But I Ran Out of Time

If you're looking for something to read, Michael Lewis wrote a great article that you can find here.

Sunday, April 24, 2005

Today's Game: Padres (8-10) @ Diamondbacks (10-8)

Saturday, April 23, 2005

Tonight's Game: Padres (8-9) @ Diamondbacks (9-8)

First Pitch @ 6:40 PM PST

Pitching Matchup
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ARI: RHP Brandon Webb
2005: 3-0, 19.1 IP, 1.34 WHIP, 3.26 ERA, 1.50 K/BB
EPL: 8-13, 197.0 IP, 1.36 WHIP, 3.29 ERA, 1.84 K/BB
vs. SD '04: 1-1, 19.1 IP, 1.19 WHIP, 2.79 ERA, 1.75 K/BB

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SD: RHP Jake Peavy
2005: 2-0, 20.2 IP, 0.97 WHIP, 1.31 ERA, 6.50 K/BB
EPL: 13-8, 164.1 IP, 1.27 WHIP, 3.26 ERA, 2.72 K/BB
vs. ARI '04: 2-1, 17.0 IP, 1.06 WHIP, 2.65 ERA, 3.43 K/BB

Brandon Webb vs. San Diego

Jake Peavy vs. Arizona

Friday, April 22, 2005

Tonight's Game: Padres (8-8) @ Diamondbacks (8-8)

First Pitch @ 6:40 PM PST

Pitching Matchup
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ARI: LHP Brad Halsey
2005: 1-0, 16.0 IP, 1.19 WHIP, 2.81 ERA, 11.00 K/BB

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SD: RHP Tim Redding
2005: 0-2, 10.1 IP, 1.35 WHIP, 4.35 ERA, 2.33 K/BB
EPL: 7-10, 130.2 IP, 1.56 WHIP, 4.90 ERA, 1.50 K/BB
vs. ARI '04: 0-1, 5.2 IP, 1.94 WHIP, 4.76 ERA, 1.50 K/BB

Brad Halsey vs. San Diego

Tim Redding vs. Arizona

Thursday, April 21, 2005

Padres Defeat LAD 6-1, Finish Home Stand 3-1

The Padres (8-8) are now 3-0 with Dave Roberts leading off. The assertion that Roberts would provide a spark seems to be accuurate thus far. He's certainly been a substantial improvement over the club's other lead-off efforts.

Just look at this table complete with 14 Plate Appearance sample size:

Just Ignore the Stupidly Small Sample Size
Others Batting #1571119410.
Dave Roberts1245210.333.333.429.417

Tonight's Game: Padres (7-8) vs. Dodgers (12-2)

First Pitch @ 7:05 PM PST

Pitching Matchup
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LAD: RHP Scott Erickson
2005: 1-0, 10.1 IP, 1.45 WHIP, 6.97 ERA, 0.00 K/BB
vs. SD '05: 1-0, 6.0 IP, 1.17 WHIP, 3.00 ERA, 0.00 K/BB

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SD: RHP Adam Eaton
2005: 1-1, 16.2 IP, 1.38 WHIP, 3.24 ERA, 2.60 K/BB
EPL: 10-13, 192.2 IP, 1.30 WHIP, 4.40 ERA, 2.61 K/BB
vs. LAD '05: 0-1, 6.0 IP, 1.38 WHIP, 4.50 ERA, 1.00 K/BB

Scott Erickson vs. San Diego

Adam Eaton vs. LA Dodgers

Wednesday, April 20, 2005

Padres Lose 3-1 in 10 Innings.

I have not the words.

Tonight's Game: Padres (7-7) vs. Dodgers (11-2)

First Pitch @ 7:05 PM PST

Pitching Matchup
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RHP Derek Lowe
2005: 1-1, 20.1 IP, 0.93 WHIP, 1.77 ERA, 3.50 K/BB
EPL: 16-10, 195.2 IP, 1.44 WHIP, 4.63 ERA, 1.69 K/BB
vs. SD '05: 1-0, 9.0 IP, 0.44 WHIP, 0.00 ERA, 5.00 K/BB

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SD: RHP Woody Williams
2005: 1-1, 15.2 IP, 1.72 WHIP, 7.47 ERA, 2.20 K/BB
EPL: 13-8, 185.2 IP, 1.25 WHIP, 3.80 ERA, 2.56 K/BB
vs. LAD '05: 0-1, 6.1 IP, 1.74 WHIP, 5.68 ERA, 1.67 K/BB

Lowe v. Current Padres
Ramon Hernandez112001.
Geoff Blum113110.273.333.545.879
Ryan Klesko93002.333.333.333.667
Brian Giles92020.222.364.222.586
Phil Nevin81002.
Mark Loretta71000.
Dave Roberts73001.429.429.429.857
Sean Burroughs31010.333.500.333.833
Xavier Nady31000.333.333.333.667
Woody Williams21000.500.500.5001.000
Mark Sweeney20002.
Jesse Garcia20001.

Pitcher v. Current Team
Jeff Kent3814365.368.478.7891.268
Paul Bako185015.278.316.333.649
Cesar Izturis143003.
Jose Valentin123146.250.438.5831.021
Hee Seop Choi110005.
J.D. Drew100034.
Ricky Ledee92102.222.222.667.889
Milton Bradley72113.286.444.7141.159
Derek Lowe31000.333.333.333.667
Jason Phillips32000.667.667.6671.1333
Jason Grabowski10001.

Tuesday, April 19, 2005

B-Law Tosses a Gem

All I have time for is Lawrence's line, but that says it all:

8.0 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 2 K, 0 BB

Tonight's Game: Padres (6-7) vs. Giants (6-6)

First Pitch @ 7:05 PM PST

Pitching Matchup
RHP Jerome Williams
2005: 0-0, 7.2 IP, 1.17 WHIP, 2.35 ERA, 1.67 K/BB
EPL: 9-6, 130.0 IP, 1.28 WHIP, 3.86 ERA, 1.81 K/BB
vs. SD '04: 2-0, 13.2 IP, 0.80 WHIP, 1.32 ERA, 2.33 K/BB

SD: RHP Brian Lawrence
2005: 0-2, 9.2 IP, 1.97 WHIP, 8.38 ERA, 2.00 K/BB
EPL: 13-14, 206.2 IP, 1.33 WHIP, 4.07 ERA, 2.26 K/BB
vs. SF '04: 2-1, 27.1 IP, 1.50 WHIP, 5.27 ERA, 1.08 K/BB

Williams v. Current Padres
Phil Nevin152104.133.133.333.467
Mark Loretta144110.286.375.500.875
Brian Giles121020.
Ramon Hernandez122002.
Sean Burroughs123010.250.308.250.558
Dave Roberts83010.375.444.6251.069
Ryan Klesko71010.
Xavier Nady21010.500.667.5001.167
Miguel Ojeda21010.500.667.5001.167

Lawrence v. Current Giants
Marquis Grissom298103.276.276.414.690
Ray Durham279205.333.357.556.913
J.T. Snow257131.280.345.480.825
Edgardo Alfonzo215030.238.333.286.619
Michael Tucker177123.412.474.6471.121
Mike Matheny100001.
Deivi Cruz51000.
Pedro Feliz53101.600.6001.4002.000
Yorvit Torrealba51001.

Padres Hire Alderson

Related Links:

SignOnSandiego: Padres to name Alderson top executive

Padres RunDown: Moores' "Most Significant Signing"

SignOnSanDiego: Padres lure Alderson

SignOnSanDiego: Team's lethargy too tiresome to take

Majore League Baseball: Alderson takes job as Padres CEO

Notable Quotables:

"That's a home run," said a high-ranking executive with another club. "That's better than signing Carlos Beltran."

"Alderson, the former president and GM of the Athletics, isn't a bean-counter who will be brought in to look good in a suit. he's a top baseball hand." - Nick Canepa

"For me this is the last piece of a complicated puzzle that involved building a ballpark and redeveloping San Diego," Moores said... "It's time to build a competitive team and it allows us to significantly strengthen our management team. I think this is our most significant signing in the 11 years I've owned the team."

The future of Bochy and Towers in the organization will be up to Alderson, Moores said, although he doesn't expect any immediate changes.

Monday, April 18, 2005

Giles Trade Check-Up

Padre fans seemed so fascinated by the trade that sent Jason Bay & Oliver Perez to the Pirates for Brian Giles, that I thought I'd provide a service. That service is going to come in the form of a regular check-up like the one below.

Batting Stats
Jason Bay5214176.269.173.345.327
Brian Giles44102414.227.636.400.545

Pitching Stats
Oliver Perez0215.02.009.601.33

Tonight's Game: Padres (5-7) vs. Giants (6-5)

First Pitch @ 7:05 PM PST

Pitching Matchup
RHP Brett Tomko
2005: 0-2, 10.2 IP, 1.97 WHIP, 5.91 ERA, 0.83 K/BB
EPL: 12-8, 198.2 IP, 1.40 WHIP, 4.53 ERA, 1.86 K/BB
vs. SD '04: 0-1, 11.0 IP, 1.27 WHIP, 6.55 ERA, 0.50 K/BB

SD: RHP Jake Peavy
2005: 1-0, 13.2 IP, 0.95 WHIP, 1.32 ERA, 5.67 K/BB
EPL: 13-8, 164.1 IP, 1.27 WHIP, 3.26 ERA, 2.72 K/BB
vs. SF '04: 2-1, 33.1 IP, 1.20 WHIP, 1.89 ERA, 1.79 K/BB

Tomko v. Current Padres
Brian Giles276230.250.323.643.965
Mark Loretta2511011.440.481.5601.041
Dave Roberts244034.
Ryan Klesko194132.211.318.421.739
Phil Nevin112021.182.308.273.580
Geoff Blum102012.200.273.300.573
Mark Sweeney82021.250.455.375.830
Ramon Hernandez60001.
Sean Burroughs62000.333.333.333.667
Miguel Ojeda3011.333.500.333.833
Jake Peavy20000.

Peavy v. Current Giants
Ray Durham285008.179.179.321.500
Marquis Grissom279013.333.345.333.678
J.T. Snow229225.409.480.8181.298
Edgardo Alfonzo164021.250.333.313.646
Michael Tucker164034.250.368.250.618
Yorvit Torrealba95100.556.5561.000.1.556
Pedro Feliz81112.125.222.500.722
Deivi Cruz70001.
Tony Torcato30000.
Brett Tomko20000.
Mike Matheny20011.000.333.000.333

A Couple of Graphs

I'll post the charts again if anyone wants them, but I just don't have time at the moment.

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Image hosted by Photobucket.com

Sunday, April 17, 2005

NL West Division Race

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Weekly State of the Division (2)

Current Standings
Los Angeles92-
San Francisco653
San Diego574.5

Expected Standings
Los Angeles74-
San Francisco651
San Diego661.5

Projected End-of-Season Standings
Los Angeles10359-
San Francisco847819
San Diego798324

Today's Game: Padres (5-6) @ Dodgers (8-2)

First Pitch @ 1:10 PM PST

Pitching Matchup
RHP Jeff Weaver
2005: 1-0, 11.0 IP, 1.55 WHIP, 6.55 ERA, 3.00 K/BB
EPL: 11-11, 196.1 IP, 1.39 WHIP, 4.59 ERA, 2.26 K/BB
vs. SD '04: 1-4, 37.0 IP, 1.38 WHIP, 4.86 ERA, 2.67 K/BB

SD: RHP Tim Redding
2005: 0-1, 5.1 IP, 1.31 WHIP, 0.00 ERA, 0.50 K/BB
EPL: 7-10, 130.2 IP, 1.56 WHIP, 4.90 ERA, 1.50 K/BB
vs. LAD '04: 0-0, 1.0 IP, 2.00 WHIP, 0.00 ERA, 2.00 K/BB

Weaver v. Current Padres
Ramon Hernandez3011116.367.375.600.975
Brian Giles277114.259.286.481.767
Mark Loretta206022.300.364.400.764
Phil Nevin165113.313.353.500.853
Ryan Klesko145033.357.471.357.828
Sean Burroughs143001.
Jesse Garcia30001.
Miguel Ojeda20001.
Xavier Nady10001.

Redding v. Current Dodgers
J.D. Drew73142.429.636.8571.494
Hee Seop Choi72120.286.444.8571.302
Jeff Kent62000.333.333.500.833
Cesar Izturis62001.333.333.500.833
Paul Bako51000.200.200.400.600
Jason Phillips31010.333.500.333.833
Milton Bradly00010.0001.000.0001.000

Ugly Night

Baseball: Padres lose 8-3 to the hated Dodgers & Khalil Greene breaks his finger.

SuperCross: Chad Reed finishes fourth and James "Bubba" Stewart wins.

UFC 52: Randy Couture knocked out in first round.

What garbage.

Saturday, April 16, 2005

Tonight's Game: Padres (5-5) @ Dodgers (7-2)

First Pitch @ 7:10 PM PST

Pitching Matchup
RHP Scott Erickson
2005: 0-0, 4.1 IP, 1.85 WHIP, 12.46 ERA, .000 K/BB

SD: RHP Adam Eaton
2005: 1-0, 10.2 IP, 1.13 WHIP, 2.53 ERA, 5.00 K/BB
EPL: 10-13, 192.2 IP, 1.30 WHIP, 4.40 ERA, 2.61 K/BB
vs. LAD '04: 4-1, 37.2 IP, 0.98 WHIP, 2.87 ERA, 3.13 K/BB

Erickson v. Current Padres
Mark Loretta111010.
Ryan Klesko92110.222.300.556.856
Brian Giles84110.500.5561.1251.681
Phil Nevin60013.
Ramon Hernandez52000.400.400.400.800

Eaton v. Current Dodgers
Cesar Izturis296012.207.233241.475
Milton Bradley203117.150.190.350.540
Jeff Kent113113.273.333.636.970
Hee Seop Choi72012.286.375.286.661
Jason Grabowski40010.
Paul Bako30001.
Ricky Ledee20000.
J.D. Drew110101.0001.0001.0002.000

Friday, April 15, 2005

Lowe Dominant in 4-0 Win

The Padres, who have averaged six walks per game this season, managed to draw only one tonight. Lowe was able to limit the Padres to four base-runners while picking up his second career shutout. Starting for the Padres, Woody Williams was taken deep twice by Kent and Bradley. The other two runs given up by Williams were career RBIs two and three for Derek Lowe.

The only positives from tonight's game were Sean Burroughs (1-3, BB) and Chris Hammond's scoreless 1.2 IP in relief of Williams. Those are pathetic highlights. I could say more, but this was just an ugly loss (Padres' first shutout of the year).

The Dodgers are now 7-2 & the Padres are now 5-5.


Due to the fact that I hate OPS, I've been looking for something better to use as a measuring stick. For the uninitiated, OPS = OBP + SLG. OBP = (H + BB) / (AB + BB) & SLG = (H + 2B + 2*3B + 3*HR) / AB.

That gives you:

[(H + BB) / (AB + BB)] + [(H + 2B + 2*3B + 3*HR) / AB] = OPS.

You can't add fractions with different denominators. That's basic. Just to add them you have to multiply each numerator by the other's denominator. That gives you a formula like this

[ ( H*AB + BB*AB ) / ( AB*AB + BB*AB ) ] + ( [ H*(AB + BB) + 2B*(AB + BB) + 2*3B*(AB + BB) + 3*HR*(AB + BB) ] / [ AB*(AB + BB) ] )

If that makes sense to you, you're most likely an idiot. Why would we use that? What would possess people to multiply by AB and BB that many times? It's a stupid formula. Very stupid. My initial thought was to try to fix it. I doubt that's worthwhile. It's far too ugly.

Instead, I started looking around. I've always liked Bill James' Secondary Average (TB - H + BB + SB - CS) / AB. A couple things about that bother me a lot. I'm aware that it's meant as a compliment to the incredibly flawed batting average, but I'm looking for an OPS replacement rather than a BA fix. My initial thought is to go with (TB + BB + SB - CS) / PA. Having decided that dividing by PA unfairly punishes batters for taking walks, I went back to AB. This gives us a new stat, a bastardized Secondary Average, or BSA if you will. BSA could also be considered Batting Average + Secondary Average. This is possible because both denominators are the same (AB).

I'll still post OPS, but any future graphs tracking performance will use BSA. If I've missed something obvious, I'd appreciate it if someone could point it out to me.

Minor Update: Over the last two seasons, the aggregate SecA has been roughly equal to the aggregate BA. 2004, SecA = .268 & BA = .263. 2005, SecA = .262 & BA = .262. I'll probably do a few more seasons, but unless they're substantially different I won't bother to update. It's my understanding that there is a much larger variance in SecA, so I'll have a look at that and unless that turns out false (which I doubt), I won't bother to post on it.

Tonight's Game: Padres (5-4) @ Dodgers (6-2)

Pitching Matchup
RHP Derek Lowe
2005: 0-1, 11.1 IP, 1.32 WHIP, 3.18 ERA, 3.00 K/BB
EPL: 16-10, 195.2 IP, 1.44 WHIP, 4.63 ERA, 1.69 K/BB

SD: RHP Woody Williams
2005: 1-0, 9.1 IP, 1.71 WHIP, 8.68 ERA, 3.00 K/BB
EPL: 13-8, 185.2 IP, 1.25 WHIP, 3.80 ERA, 2.56 K/BB
vs. LAD '04: 1-0, 18.2 IP, 1.07 WHIP, 2.89 ERA, 5.50 K/BB

Lowe v. Current Padres
Geoff Blum113110.273.333.545.879
Ramon Hernandez82001.
Ryan Klesko53000.600.600.6001.200
Brian Giles52020.400.571.400.971
Phil Nevin41001.
Mark Loretta31000.333.333.333.667
Jesse Garcia20001.
Mark Sweeney10001.

Williams v. Current Dodgers
Jeff Kent3513265.371.488.7431.231
Paul Bako185015.278.316.333.649
Jose Valentin102135.200.385.600.985
Cesar Izturis102002.200.200.300.500
J.D. Drew70023.
Hee Seop Choi70004.
Ricky Ledee62101.333.3331.0001.333
Milton Bradley50003.
Jason Grabowski10001.

Thursday, April 14, 2005

Statistical Lineup Comparisons

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#1 Hitters

#2 Hitters

#3 Hitters

#4 Hitters

#5 Hitters

#6 Hitters

#7 Hitters

#8 Hitters

San Diego Padres Team Batting Statistics

Statistics are from ESPN.

Players with at least 3.1 PA per G
Xavier Nady3414336.412.459.8241.283
Brian Giles3083129.267.455.7001.155
Ramon Hernandez289153.321.424.500.924
Ryan Klesko318266.258.378.484.862
Mark Loretta3612075.333.467.389.856
Khalil Greene308058.267.361.367.728
Sean Burroughs287035.250.344.286.629
Phil Nevin387238.184.244.368.612

Wednesday, April 13, 2005

Nady Continues to Shine

After today's double-header, Xavier Nady is batting a ridiculous .412/.459/.824 with 11 RBIs. Those are Playstation numbers. I mean, his ISP is .412. That's higher than some guys' SLG%. If you lop .100 off all of his numbers, they still look good. Who would be upset if Nady turned in a line of .312/.359/.724? That's still outstanding.

Nady's .412 Batting Average, 3 Home Runs & 11 Runs Batted In also have him in the top five in the NL of all three categories. He ranks 5th, 5th, and 3rd respectively. A triple-crown possibility? Of course not, but X is off to a ridiculous start.

Today's Second Game: Padres (5-3) @ Cubs (3-5)

First Pitch 20 min. after Game 1 of Double-header.

Pitching Matchup
RHP Mark Prior
EPL: 10-5, 149.1 IP, 1.24 WHIP, 3.37 ERA, 3.73 K/BB
vs. SD in '04: 0-1, 3.0 IP, 4.33 WHIP, 21.00 ERA, 0.60 K/BB

SD: RHP Brian Lawrence
EPL: 13-14, 206.2 IP, 1.33 WHIP, 4.07 ERA, 2.26 K/BB
2005: 0-1, 7.0 IP, 1.29 WHIP, 2.57 ERA, 2.50 K/BB

Prior vs. Current Padres
Geoff Blum142126.143.250.429.679
Brian Giles104134.400.538.9001.438
Mark Loretta83003.375.375.375.750
Phil Nevin71001.
Ryan Klesko60012.
Sean Burroughs61001.
Ramon Hernandez220001.0001.0001.0002.000
Adam Hyzdu10001.
Khalil Greene00020.0001.000.0001.000

Lawrence vs. Current Cubs
Jeromy Burnitz123232.250.400.7501.150
Todd Hollandsworth95100.556.5561.0001.556
Todd Walker83002.375.375.375.750
Derrek Lee83211.375.4441.1251.569
Neifi Perez72020.286.444.286.730
Aramis Ramirez72000.
Corey Patterson73000.429.429.5711.000
Nomar Garciaparra52011.400.500.400.900
Michael Barrett41011.250.400.250.650
Jerry Hairston Jr.30001.
Jose Macias10000.

Today's First Game: Padres (4-3) @ Cubs (3-4)

First Pitch @ 10:00 AM PST

Pitching Matchup
Kerry Wood
EPL: 11-10, 176.0 IP, 1.24 WHIP, 3.54 ERA, 2.67 K/BB
2005: 0-0, 5.2 IP, 1.59 WHIP, 3.18 ERA, 1.40 K/BB

SD: RHP Jake Peavy
EPL: 13-8, 164.1 IP, 1.27 WHIP, 3.26 ERA, 2.72 K/BB
2005: 0-0, 6.2 IP, 0.90 WHIP, 0.00 ERA, 5.00 K/BB
vs. CHC in '04: 0-0, 5.0 IP, 1.20 WHIP, 1.80 ERA, 3.00 K/BB

Wood vs. Current Padres
Mark Loretta234136.174.321.304.626
Brian Giles235453.217.345.7831.127
Geoff Blum196035.316.409.368.778
Ryan Klesko182048.
Phil Nevin92011.222.300.222.522
Sean Burroughs81013.
Miguel Ojeda30000.
Jesse Garcia21040.500.8331.000.1833
Xavier Nady21011.500.750.5001.250
Mark Sweeney10000.

Peavy vs. Current Cubs
Jeromy Burnitz110015.
Neifi Perez100011.
Todd Hollandsworth51011.200.333.400.733
Derrek Lee51002.200.200.400.600
Aramis Ramirez52001.400.400.6001.000
Corey Patterson53010.600.667.6001.267
Nomar Garciaparra30001.
Michael Barrett20000.
Jose Macias21101.500.5002.0002.500

Tuesday, April 12, 2005

Lynn Henning = Idiot ?

Is Lynn Henning of The Detroit News the stupidest man alive? Probably not, but he's struggling to earn the title with gems like these:

Lynn Henning breaks down the National League - 4/4/05


"2. Ryan Klesko, San Diego: Good left-handed bat for an American
League contender in the stretch drive."

Well, if Henning had taken the time to think before writing this, he would have realized a few things: 1) Klesko has a no-trade clause, 2) Klesko has stated that he won't wave his no-trade clause, & 3) the Padres are contenders to win the NL West this year.

"Teams on the decline
2. San Diego: Bad recipe: a chock-a-block big-league roster and not
much on the farm. "

I'll let that one speak for itself.

NL West Division 4/4/05


"SAN DIEGO PADRES, 2004 RECORD: 87-7, Predicted finish: Third place.
The problem with the Padres is that they're just plain unimpressive.
They can beat you about as often as you'll beat them. And this year,
that's about what the Padres are staring at: a .500 record. David
Wells is gone, which could be overcome if the Padres' starters
weren't so otherwise undistinguished. Woody Williams has been added
to the rotation -- he will help -- and Dave Roberts is the new
center fielder. But this team, despite a decent lineup (Ryan Klesko,
Phil Nevin, Brian Giles, Sean Burroughs, etc.), is no threat to the
Giants, and no threat to be much more than a so-so team."

Now, I'm not taking issue with the pick, but rather with the reasoning. Plenty of intelligent people have picked the Padres to finish third. I don't see it happening but reasonable people can disagree. That the Padres are unimpressive is a matter of opinion, though I question what Lynn finds impressive.

If he's going to cite the Padres first week of the season to project victories, he could have at least used RS:RA. There's at least some logic to that approach. I wonder if he thought the Mets would finish 0-162 after their first five games.

David Wells is gone, granted (do look at his performance so far in this young season, though). The Padres' starters are undistinguished? What about that Peavy guy, you know the one who won the ERA title last year? No mention. Also, Woody Williams is no better than the third-best pitcher on this year's staff. That's some awesome analysis.

Also, Henning drops a backhanded compliment on the lineup and lists Burroughs but not Nady, Hernanez or Greene (all of whom are bigger offensive threats than Sean).

I'm aware I'm picking on a nobody (hey, I'm nobody, too), but it just grates on me to see such blatant stupidity being disseminated.

Rained Out!

I was all situated infront of the television with my snack and beverage waiting for the game to start when they announced the game had been cancelled. I guess I'll have to watch tomorrow's game on the replay.

Monday, April 11, 2005

Eaton Out-duels Dempster

Neither pitching staff allowed an earned run, but the Padres picked up a run in the sixth when Giles scored on a Ramon Hernandez groundball to the second baseman. Eaton was phenomenal. He allowed only four hits over six innings and walked none while striking out three. His Cub counterpart, Dempster, was also on his A-game allowing only a single, unearned run on a ground out. Not to take anything away from today's pitchers, but the wind was blowing in this morning and balls that might have been home runs turned into outs.

Today's Game: Padres (3-3) @ Cubs (3-3)

First Pitch @ 11:20 AM PST

Pitching Matchup
RHP Ryan Dempster
0-1, 3.2 IP, 3.27 WHIP, 17.18 ERA, 2.33 K/BB in 2005
5-9, 146.2 IP, 1.69 WHIP, 6.15 ERA, 1.35 K/BB Established Performance Level
0-1, 1.0 IP, 3.00 WHIP, 9.00 ERA, 1K:0BB vs. SD in 2004

SD: RHP Adam Eaton
0-0, 4.2 IP, 1.71 WHIP, 5.79 ERA, 3.50 K/BB in 2005
10-13, 192.2 IP, 1.30 WHIP, 4.40 ERA, 2.61 K/BB Established Performance Level
1-1, 10.0 IP, 1.70 WHIP, 9.90 ERA, 2.67 K/BB vs. CHC in 2004

Dempster v. Current Padres
Geoff Blum319034.290.353.323.676
Brian Giles2612253.462.548.8851.433
Ryan Klesko209144.450.542.6501.192
Phil Nevin194024.
Mark Loretta102123.200.333.600.933
Sean Burroughs30001.
Mark Sweeney10000.
Ramon Hernandez110001.0001.0001.0002.000
Adam Hyzdu110001.0001.0001.0002.000
Khalil Greene110001.0001.0001.0002.000

Eaton v. Current Cubs
Neifi Perez216122.286.348.476.824
Jeromy Burnitz178013.471.500.7061.206
Todd Walker178123.471.526.8241.350
Todd Hollandsworth169230.563.6321.0631.694
Aramis Ramirez103113.300.364.7001.064
Derrek Lee72200.286.2861.1431.429
Corey Patterson72021.286.444.5711.016
Jose Macias61001.
Henry Blanco40001.
Michael Barrett30001.
Nomar Garciaparra21110.500.6672.0002.667

Sunday, April 10, 2005

Weekly: State of the Division

Current Standings
Los Angeles42-
San Francisco42-
San Diego331

Expected Standings [RS/(RS+RA)]
Los Angeles42-
San Francisco331
San Diego331

Projected End-of-Season Standings [RS/(RS+RA)]
Los Angeles9567-
San Diego94681
San Francisco828013

Redding Loses Despite 0 ER Performance

The Padres lost 6-3 despite allowing only two earned runs. Tim Redding was tagged to the loss after a Khalil Greene throwing error cost the right-hander four unearned runs in the fourth inning. Even with the tough loss, Padre fans can take solace in knowing that the 5th spot in the starting rotation is in good hands. Redding now owns a WHIP of 1.31 and ERA of 0.00 in 5.1 innings of work this year. Aside from Greene's 4-run error, today's other major disappointment was Ramon Hernandez's grounding into a double play with the bases loaded in the eighth, which killed what hope remained for the Padres.

Today's big numbers are 4 & 11 as in Unearned Runs and Runners Left On-Base. The Padres, again, squandered excellent pitching performances by failing both in the field and at the dish.

And another thing, was Khalil Greene's going 0-4 at the plate, being picked off at first base and making a costly throwing error merely an off-night or the beginning of a prolonged sophomore slump? I maintain my belief that Khalil will have a good year, but today's game has me considering that I may be wrong.

Today's Game: Padres (3-2) vs. Pirates (1-4)

First Pitch @ 1:05 PM PST

Pitching Matchup
LHP Dave Williams
2-4, 52.2 IP, 1.26 WHIP, 4.49, 1.94 K/BB Established Performance Level
0-0, 2.2 IP, 0.75 WHIP, 0.00 ERA, 0.00 K/BB vs. SD in 2004

SD: RHP Tim Redding
0-0, 0.1 IP, 0.00 WHIP, 0.00 ERA, 0.00 K/BB in 2005
6-9, 121.1 IP, 1.55 WHIP, 4.99 ERA, 0.81 K/BB Established Performance Level
0-0, 8.1 IP, 1.92 WHIP, 6.48 ERA, 0.75 K/BB vs. PIT in 2004

Today's game is the first start for both Williams and Redding. Neither pitcher's statistics offer much insight into anything other than why they are #5 starters. It is my expectation that the Padres will continue to hit this afternoon and will be able to take the series from the Pirates. I also expect the Pirates to continue to struggle at the dish even against Redding. Tim's getting a fresh start and he's looking to do something with it. I think we'll see a more effective Tim Redding than Astros' Fans saw last season. Look for a return to 2003 numbers in pitcher-friendly PetCo Park.

Redding vs. Current Pirates
Opposing hitterABBAOBPSLGOPS
Jack Wilson21.381.409.429.838
Craig Wilson18.333.333.444.778
Rob Mackowiak8.000.333.000.333
Tike Redman4.250.400.250.650.
Ty Wigginton4.
Jason Bay4.250.250.500.750
Benito Santiago3.
Daryle Ward3.667.7501.6672.417
Matt Lawton2.500.667.5001.000
Humberto Cota2.500.500.5001.000
Bobby Hill2.
David Ross2.
Freddy Sanchez2.

Williams vs. Current Padres
Opposing hitterABBAOBPSLGOPS
Mark Loretta7.286.286.429.714
Ryan Klesko3.667.6671.0001.667
Phil Nevin2.500.6671.0001.667
Sean Burroughs2.
Brian Giles1.
Ramon Hernandez1.
Khalil Greene1.

Saturday, April 09, 2005

Nevin, Nady Power Friars Past Bucs

Xavier Nady and Phil Nevin provided everything Woody Williams would need and more as the San Diego Padres decimated the visiting Pittsburgh Pirates 11-3. Woody provided six strong innings allowing three Runs on five Hits and one Walk. Woody looked almost as good as he did against the Bucs last year as he held the visitors to only one base-runner per inning and struck out five more than he walked. Tonight's solid outting reduced Williams' atrocious season ERA from 16.20 to a merely ugly 8.68. Behind Williams, Scott Linebrink, Akinori Otsuka and Darrell May each provided a scoreless frame.

Nady's 3-run bomb was his third homerun of the season and has left this Padre fan asking, "Dave Who?" Nady's numbers five games into the season are gaudy. .444/.524/1.111 is outstanding even this early. For the simple-arithmetic-impaired, that's an OPS of 1.635, which for those who don't pay attention to baseball statisics is damn good. Nevin, who had been struggling at home (1 for 10), put the Padres up for good in the fifth inning when he slammed the 13th pitch of the inning over the centerfield wall for a three-run homerun.

Tonight's Game: Padres (2-2) vs. Pirates (1-3)

First Pitch @ 7:05 PST

Pitching Matchup
PIT: LHP Oliver Perez
0-1, 5.0 IP, 1.60 WHIP, 10.80 ERA, 2.00 K/BB in 2005
1-1, 9.1 IP, 1.61 WHIP, 1.93 ERA, 1.38 K/BB vs. SD in 2004

SD: RHP Woody Williams
0-0, 3.1 IP, 3.00 WHIP, 16.20 ERA, 0.00 K/BB in 2005
1-0, 6.0 IP, 1.33 WHIP, 0.00 ERA, 3.00 K/BB vs. PIT in 2004

Tonight's game features two opening day starters that struggled badly in their first starts, Gregory Scott Williams for the Padres and Oliver Perez Martinez for the Pirates. Woody checks in with a 16.20 ERA and Ollie with a 10.80. Neither ERA is particularly representative with Established Performance Levels of a 3.90 ERA for Perez and a 3.80 ERA for Williams respectively.